JTo
51.01%
Wins 50.42%, ties 1.18%
33
48.99%
Wins 48.40%, ties 1.18%
JTo against 33: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JTo | 50.420 | 1.176 | 48.404 | 51.008 |
| 33 | 48.404 | 1.176 | 50.420 | 48.992 |
JTo and 33 are an offsuit hand and a pocket pair, in that order. This is a pair against two overcards, a matchup that stays close because the other hand only needs one of its ranks to appear.
This is close to even money, with JTo a little ahead. Ties are part of the picture: 1.18% of boards end in a split pot, and each side counts that as half a win.
Among the 169 starting hands, JTo is number 57 and 33 is number 66 by strength against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| JTo | 62,161,000 | 1,450,000 | 59,675,000 |
| 33 | 59,675,000 | 1,450,000 | 62,161,000 |
The total is exact: 72 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards. The three counts are approximate, worked out from the percentages to five decimals and rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JTo | 1.041 | 1.983 | 2.066 | 0.960 |
| 33 | 0.960 | 2.066 | 1.983 | 1.041 |
The last column is the break-even price: the pot odds a call needs to offer, as a ratio of pot to call.
Who is ahead on which flops
Break the boards down by their first three cards and JTo is strongest on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better (57.08%) and weakest on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) (28.86%). On low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) and paired flops the numbers flip and 33 is the one ahead.
| Flop | Share of flops | JTo wins | Ties | 33 wins | JTo equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 24.717 | 56.765 | 0.638 | 42.597 | 57.084 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 6.314 | 28.458 | 0.802 | 70.740 | 28.859 |
| Two-tone | 46.485 | 51.167 | 0.657 | 48.176 | 51.495 |
| Monotone | 5.151 | 51.738 | 2.551 | 45.711 | 53.013 |
| Paired | 17.333 | 46.975 | 3.062 | 49.963 | 48.506 |
Rainbow flops have three suits, two-tone flops repeat one suit, monotone flops are all one suit, and paired flops repeat a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Relative to a random opponent, JTo changes by -4.24 points (baseline 55.25%) and 33 by -4.70 points (baseline 53.69%).
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JTo, all flops | 51.008 | 55.248 | -4.240 | 0.92326 |
| JTo, rainbow, ten or higher | 57.084 | 55.248 | +1.836 | 1.03323 |
| JTo, rainbow, nine or lower | 28.859 | 55.248 | -26.389 | 0.52235 |
| JTo, two-tone | 51.495 | 55.248 | -3.753 | 0.93207 |
| JTo, monotone | 53.013 | 55.248 | -2.235 | 0.95955 |
| JTo, paired | 48.506 | 55.248 | -6.742 | 0.87797 |
| 33, all flops | 48.992 | 53.693 | -4.701 | 0.91245 |
| 33, rainbow, ten or higher | 42.916 | 53.693 | -10.777 | 0.79928 |
| 33, rainbow, nine or lower | 71.141 | 53.693 | +17.448 | 1.32496 |
| 33, two-tone | 48.505 | 53.693 | -5.188 | 0.90338 |
| 33, monotone | 46.987 | 53.693 | -6.706 | 0.87510 |
| 33, paired | 51.494 | 53.693 | -2.199 | 0.95904 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Looking only at deals where the hands share a suit, JTo has 51.10%; looking only at deals where they do not, 50.55%. JTo does better with a shared suit, by 0.55 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | JTo wins | Ties | 33 wins | JTo equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 60 | 83.33 | 50.506 | 1.187 | 48.307 | 51.100 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 16.67 | 49.986 | 1.121 | 48.893 | 50.546 |
How often this matchup comes up
How often does it happen? 72 of the 1,624,350 ordered deals (0.0044%) are JTo against 33, and 144 (0.0089%) if either hand may sit in either seat.
A worked example
With $100 from each side, the $200 pot is split on average as $102.02 for JTo and $97.98 for 33; the first side gains $2.02 per all-in and the second gives up $2.02.
A thousand deals look like this: JTo takes 504, 33 takes 484, 12 are ties.
The same matchup from the other side
Swap the hands and you get 33 with 48.99% against JTo with 51.01%. We keep one page per matchup, with the better-ranked hand first.
Keep exploring
Try JsTh against 3d3c in the calculator: the hands share no suit, and every card can be changed. The links after it are the closest matchups in the ranking.
How this was computed
All 1,712,304 five-card boards are dealt for every suit pattern among the 72 specific deals of JTo against 33, and both hands are scored on each. That is a full count, so the percentages are exact. Ties are half a win each, and each board appears once per flop it contains.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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