JTs
52.71%
Wins 52.24%, ties 0.95%
44
47.29%
Wins 46.81%, ties 0.95%
JTs against 44: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JTs | 52.235 | 0.949 | 46.816 | 52.709 |
| 44 | 46.816 | 0.949 | 52.235 | 47.291 |
JTs is a suited hand and 44 is a pocket pair. This is a pair against two overcards, a matchup that stays close because the other hand only needs one of its ranks to appear.
JTs leads by less than 6 points of equity, so the result of any one deal is close to a toss-up. Split pots make up 0.95% of the boards, and both equity figures count them as half a win each.
For context, JTs sits at number 45 of 169 starting hands and 44 at number 48 when each is run against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| JTs | 21,466,000 | 390,000 | 19,239,000 |
| 44 | 19,239,000 | 390,000 | 21,466,000 |
24 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards gives the exact total. The won, tied and lost counts are approximations from the five-decimal percentages, rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JTs | 1.115 | 1.914 | 2.136 | 0.897 |
| 44 | 0.897 | 2.136 | 1.914 | 1.115 |
The final column gives the least the pot must offer for each unit called for a call to break even at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
Split by what the flop looks like, JTs peaks at 58.17% on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better and bottoms out at 30.42% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower). Low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) and paired flops favor 44, the hand that is behind overall.
| Flop | Share of flops | JTs wins | Ties | 44 wins | JTs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 24.595 | 57.909 | 0.513 | 41.578 | 58.166 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 6.314 | 30.118 | 0.595 | 69.287 | 30.415 |
| Two-tone | 46.545 | 54.028 | 0.507 | 45.465 | 54.281 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 50.524 | 2.982 | 46.494 | 52.015 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 47.938 | 2.274 | 49.788 | 49.075 |
A rainbow flop shows three suits, a two-tone flop repeats one suit, a monotone flop is a single suit, and a paired flop repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
The table below sets each hand against its own random-hand baseline: a change of -4.82 points for JTs, from 57.53%, and -9.73 for 44, from 57.02%.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JTs, all flops | 52.709 | 57.528 | -4.819 | 0.91623 |
| JTs, rainbow, ten or higher | 58.166 | 57.528 | +0.638 | 1.01109 |
| JTs, rainbow, nine or lower | 30.415 | 57.528 | -27.113 | 0.52870 |
| JTs, two-tone | 54.281 | 57.528 | -3.247 | 0.94356 |
| JTs, monotone | 52.015 | 57.528 | -5.513 | 0.90417 |
| JTs, paired | 49.075 | 57.528 | -8.453 | 0.85306 |
| 44, all flops | 47.291 | 57.023 | -9.732 | 0.82933 |
| 44, rainbow, ten or higher | 41.834 | 57.023 | -15.189 | 0.73363 |
| 44, rainbow, nine or lower | 69.585 | 57.023 | +12.562 | 1.22030 |
| 44, two-tone | 45.719 | 57.023 | -11.304 | 0.80176 |
| 44, monotone | 47.985 | 57.023 | -9.038 | 0.84150 |
| 44, paired | 50.925 | 57.023 | -6.098 | 0.89306 |
Does a shared suit matter?
The suit split reads 52.57% for JTs with a shared suit and 52.85% without one. JTs does better with no shared suit, by 0.28 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | JTs wins | Ties | 44 wins | JTs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 50.00 | 52.079 | 0.988 | 46.933 | 52.573 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 50.00 | 52.390 | 0.911 | 46.699 | 52.846 |
How often this matchup comes up
You will meet this exact matchup 0.0030% of the time in a random heads-up deal: 48 of 1,624,350, counting either seat order.
A worked example
To see what the equity is worth, imagine $100 each in a $200 pot. JTs is worth $105.42 on average (+$5.42); 44 is worth $94.58 (-$5.42).
Out of 1,000 deals you should see around 522 outright wins for JTs, 468 for 44, and 10 split pots.
The same matchup from the other side
Swap the hands and you get 44 with 47.29% against JTs with 52.71%. We keep one page per matchup, with the better-ranked hand first.
Keep exploring
Open the calculator with JsTs against 4h4d already entered, a deal with no shared suit, and change any card to try your own hand. The matchups after it each swap one hand for a nearby one in the ranking.
How this was computed
This is an exact count with no sampling. For the 24 ways to deal one JTs and one 44 without reusing a card, grouped by suit pattern, every one of the 1,712,304 possible boards is dealt and both seven-card hands are compared. A tie counts as half a win in the equity column, and each board is counted once under each of its ten three-card flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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