K9s
49.59%
Wins 49.25%, ties 0.68%
44
50.41%
Wins 50.07%, ties 0.68%
K9s against 44: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K9s | 49.250 | 0.684 | 50.066 | 49.592 |
| 44 | 50.066 | 0.684 | 49.250 | 50.408 |
We compare a suited hand with a pocket pair. A pair against two higher cards is the classic race: the pair is usually a small favorite or close to even, and each overcard that pairs is a way to take the lead.
44 leads by less than 1 points of equity, so the result of any one deal is close to a toss-up. Split pots make up 0.68% of the boards, and both equity figures count them as half a win each.
Place 29 of 169 belongs to K9s and place 48 belongs to 44 in the ranking against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| K9s | 20,239,000 | 281,000 | 20,575,000 |
| 44 | 20,575,000 | 281,000 | 20,239,000 |
Exact total: 24 deals times 1,712,304 boards. The other three counts come from the five-decimal percentages and are rounded to the nearest thousand, so read them as approximate.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K9s | 0.984 | 2.030 | 1.997 | 1.016 |
| 44 | 1.016 | 1.997 | 2.030 | 0.984 |
The last column is the smallest pot odds, written as a pot-to-call ratio, at which a call breaks even with this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
The flop changes the picture. 44 does best on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower), at 58.91%, and worst on two-tone flops, at 49.09%. K9s takes over on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better and two-tone flops, so the favorite before the flop is the underdog on those boards.
| Flop | Share of flops | K9s wins | Ties | 44 wins | K9s equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 25.220 | 50.320 | 0.338 | 49.342 | 50.489 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 5.689 | 40.648 | 0.882 | 58.470 | 41.089 |
| Two-tone | 46.545 | 50.708 | 0.410 | 48.882 | 50.913 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 48.240 | 2.889 | 48.871 | 49.685 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 46.901 | 1.198 | 51.901 | 47.500 |
Rainbow flops have three suits, two-tone flops repeat one suit, monotone flops are all one suit, and paired flops repeat a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Start from the random-hand figures, 59.99% for K9s and 57.02% for 44. This opponent changes them by -10.40 and -6.61 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K9s, all flops | 49.592 | 59.988 | -10.396 | 0.82670 |
| K9s, rainbow, ten or higher | 50.489 | 59.988 | -9.499 | 0.84165 |
| K9s, rainbow, nine or lower | 41.089 | 59.988 | -18.899 | 0.68495 |
| K9s, two-tone | 50.913 | 59.988 | -9.075 | 0.84872 |
| K9s, monotone | 49.685 | 59.988 | -10.303 | 0.82825 |
| K9s, paired | 47.500 | 59.988 | -12.488 | 0.79183 |
| 44, all flops | 50.408 | 57.023 | -6.615 | 0.88399 |
| 44, rainbow, ten or higher | 49.511 | 57.023 | -7.512 | 0.86826 |
| 44, rainbow, nine or lower | 58.911 | 57.023 | +1.888 | 1.03311 |
| 44, two-tone | 49.087 | 57.023 | -7.936 | 0.86083 |
| 44, monotone | 50.315 | 57.023 | -6.708 | 0.88236 |
| 44, paired | 52.500 | 57.023 | -4.523 | 0.92068 |
Does a shared suit matter?
When the hands share a suit, 44 holds 50.59%; when they do not, it holds 50.23%. 44 does better with a shared suit, by 0.36 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | K9s wins | Ties | 44 wins | K9s equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 50.00 | 49.048 | 0.722 | 50.230 | 49.409 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 50.00 | 49.451 | 0.647 | 49.902 | 49.774 |
How often this matchup comes up
The class pair covers 24 combinations of specific cards in a fixed seat order, 0.0015% of 1,624,350, and 48 (0.0030%) in either order.
A worked example
Take a $200 pot built from $100 each. 44's equity of 50.41% is worth $100.82, a $0.82 edge, and K9s' 49.59% is worth $99.18, which is $0.82 under its stake.
Per 1,000 deals: 44 wins about 501, K9s wins about 492, and about 7 end in a split pot.
The same matchup from the other side
Read it from the other side: 44 against K9s is the same matchup with the numbers swapped, so 44 holds 50.41% and K9s holds 49.59%. That address sends you back to this page.
Keep exploring
Try Ks9s against 4h4d in the calculator: the hands share no suit, and every card can be changed. The links after it are the closest matchups in the ranking.
How this was computed
The figures are counted, not estimated: 1,712,304 boards for every suit pattern of the 24 specific deals, with both seven-card hands compared each time. Equity gives half a win for a tie. For the flop rows, a board is counted once under each of the ten flops inside it.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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