K9s
70.60%
Wins 69.17%, ties 2.86%
Q9s
29.40%
Wins 27.97%, ties 2.86%
K9s against Q9s: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K9s | 69.168 | 2.857 | 27.975 | 70.597 |
| Q9s | 27.975 | 2.857 | 69.168 | 29.403 |
K9s and Q9s are both suited hands. Because the hands share one rank, the one with the higher kicker is ahead when that rank pairs and the other hand is mostly drawing.
That is a clear edge, 70.60% to 29.40%, but Q9s still wins often enough that one hand proves nothing. About 2.86% of boards chop the pot, which is why equity sits slightly above the win figure for both hands.
K9s ranks number 29 of 169 starting hands, and Q9s ranks number 43, by equity against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| K9s | 14,212,000 | 587,000 | 5,748,000 |
| Q9s | 5,748,000 | 587,000 | 14,212,000 |
The total is exact: 12 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards. The three counts are approximate, worked out from the percentages to five decimals and rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K9s | 2.401 | 1.446 | 3.575 | 0.416 |
| Q9s | 0.416 | 3.575 | 1.446 | 2.401 |
The last column is the break-even price: the pot odds a call needs to offer, as a ratio of pot to call.
Who is ahead on which flops
Across the five flop textures K9s' equity moves by 18.96 points, from 63.67% on monotone flops to 82.63% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower). K9s stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.
| Flop | Share of flops | K9s wins | Ties | Q9s wins | K9s equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 24.595 | 68.412 | 2.116 | 29.472 | 69.470 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 6.314 | 80.497 | 4.269 | 15.234 | 82.631 |
| Two-tone | 46.543 | 68.194 | 2.269 | 29.537 | 69.329 |
| Monotone | 5.215 | 61.361 | 4.610 | 34.029 | 63.666 |
| Paired | 17.333 | 71.079 | 4.446 | 24.475 | 73.302 |
Rainbow flops have three suits, two-tone flops repeat one suit, monotone flops are all one suit, and paired flops repeat a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Compared with a random opponent, this matchup shifts K9s from 59.99% by +10.61 points and Q9s from 57.66% by -28.26 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K9s, all flops | 70.597 | 59.988 | +10.609 | 1.17685 |
| K9s, rainbow, ten or higher | 69.470 | 59.988 | +9.482 | 1.15806 |
| K9s, rainbow, nine or lower | 82.631 | 59.988 | +22.643 | 1.37746 |
| K9s, two-tone | 69.329 | 59.988 | +9.341 | 1.15571 |
| K9s, monotone | 63.666 | 59.988 | +3.678 | 1.06131 |
| K9s, paired | 73.302 | 59.988 | +13.314 | 1.22194 |
| Q9s, all flops | 29.403 | 57.664 | -28.261 | 0.50990 |
| Q9s, rainbow, ten or higher | 30.530 | 57.664 | -27.134 | 0.52945 |
| Q9s, rainbow, nine or lower | 17.369 | 57.664 | -40.295 | 0.30121 |
| Q9s, two-tone | 30.671 | 57.664 | -26.993 | 0.53189 |
| Q9s, monotone | 36.334 | 57.664 | -21.330 | 0.63010 |
| Q9s, paired | 26.698 | 57.664 | -30.966 | 0.46299 |
Does a shared suit matter?
K9s and Q9s never overlap in suit in a legal deal, so the whole matchup sits in the no-shared-suit row.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | K9s wins | Ties | Q9s wins | K9s equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 0 | 0.00 | not possible | not possible | not possible | not possible |
| No shared suit | 12 | 100.00 | 69.168 | 2.857 | 27.975 | 70.597 |
How often this matchup comes up
Counting specific cards, K9s against Q9s appears in 12 of the 1,624,350 ordered heads-up deals (0.0007%), and in 24 when the seats are swapped too (0.0015%).
A worked example
To see what the equity is worth, imagine $100 each in a $200 pot. K9s is worth $141.20 on average (+$41.20); Q9s is worth $58.80 (-$41.20).
In 1,000 deals of exactly this matchup, expect about 692 won outright by K9s, about 280 won outright by Q9s and about 28 split.
The same matchup from the other side
The mirror image, Q9s against K9s, is 29.40% to 70.60%, and its address redirects to this page.
Keep exploring
Open the calculator with Ks9s against Qh9h already entered, a deal with no shared suit, and change any card to try your own hand. The matchups after it each swap one hand for a nearby one in the ranking.
How this was computed
We counted every case. Each suit pattern of the 12 specific K9s against Q9s deals meets all 1,712,304 boards, and the better five-card hand wins; a split pot is half a win each. The flop table reads each board under all ten of its three-card flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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