K9s vs QJo: preflop equity

The exact count puts K9s at 59.93% and QJo at 40.07% when the two hands see all five board cards.

K9s

59.93%

Wins 59.59%, ties 0.68%

QJo

40.07%

Wins 39.73%, ties 0.68%

Equity counts a tie as half a win. Exact over every board.

K9s against QJo: the numbers

Exact preflop results for K9s against QJo, in percent
HandWinsTiesLosesEquity
K9s59.5890.68139.73059.930
QJo39.7300.68159.58940.070

K9s, a suited hand, plays QJo, an offsuit hand. The two hands share no rank, which makes this a pure matchup of card strength, straight chances and flush chances.

The lead is steady rather than large, and the flop still has plenty of say in who wins. A split pot comes up on 0.68% of boards, so the wins and the equity differ by half of that.

Among the 169 starting hands, K9s is number 29 and QJo is number 39 by strength against a random hand.

Boards behind the percentages: 82,190,592 counted in all
HandBoards won, aboutBoards tied, aboutBoards lost, about
K9s48,977,000560,00032,654,000
QJo32,654,000560,00048,977,000

Exact total: 48 deals times 1,712,304 boards. The other three counts come from the five-decimal percentages and are rounded to the nearest thousand, so read them as approximate.

K9s against QJo read as odds
HandEquity as odds (to 1)Wins one deal inLoses one deal inPot odds needed to call (to 1)
K9s1.4961.6782.5170.669
QJo0.6692.5171.6781.496

The final column gives the least the pot must offer for each unit called for a call to break even at this equity.

Who is ahead on which flops

K9s prefers low rainbow flops (nine high or lower), where it holds 75.56%, and likes rainbow flops topped by a ten or better least, where it holds 53.06%. K9s stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.

K9s against QJo by flop texture, in percent
FlopShare of flopsK9s winsTiesQJo winsK9s equity
Rainbow, ten or higher23.98852.9320.26446.80453.064
Rainbow, nine or lower7.04275.0790.96123.96075.559
Two-tone46.66759.3840.39040.22659.579
Monotone5.21255.1212.46042.41956.351
Paired17.09164.4731.40634.12165.176

Rainbow flops have three suits, two-tone flops repeat one suit, monotone flops are all one suit, and paired flops repeat a rank.

Compared with a random hand

Relative to a random opponent, K9s changes by -0.06 points (baseline 59.99%) and QJo by -18.07 points (baseline 58.14%).

K9s and QJo here compared with each against a random hand, in percent
CaseEquity hereAgainst a random handChange in pointsTimes the random-hand equity
K9s, all flops59.93059.988-0.0580.99903
K9s, rainbow, ten or higher53.06459.988-6.9240.88458
K9s, rainbow, nine or lower75.55959.988+15.5711.25957
K9s, two-tone59.57959.988-0.4090.99318
K9s, monotone56.35159.988-3.6370.93937
K9s, paired65.17659.988+5.1881.08648
QJo, all flops40.07058.135-18.0650.68926
QJo, rainbow, ten or higher46.93658.135-11.1990.80736
QJo, rainbow, nine or lower24.44158.135-33.6940.42042
QJo, two-tone40.42158.135-17.7140.69530
QJo, monotone43.64958.135-14.4860.75082
QJo, paired34.82458.135-23.3110.59902

Does a shared suit matter?

The suit split reads 59.62% for K9s with a shared suit and 60.24% without one. K9s does better with no shared suit, by 0.62 points.

K9s against QJo by suit overlap, in percent
DealsSpecific dealsShare of dealsK9s winsTiesQJo winsK9s equity
Share a suit2450.0059.2540.72240.02459.615
No shared suit2450.0059.9240.64139.43560.244

How often this matchup comes up

This page stands for 48 specific-card matchups (0.0030% of 1,624,350 ordered deals), or 96 once you count the seats both ways (0.0059%).

A worked example

To see what the equity is worth, imagine $100 each in a $200 pot. K9s is worth $119.86 on average (+$19.86); QJo is worth $80.14 (-$19.86).

Out of 1,000 deals you should see around 596 outright wins for K9s, 397 for QJo, and 7 split pots.

The same matchup from the other side

If you came looking for QJo against K9s, the numbers are the same with the hands swapped: 40.07% and 59.93%.

Open the calculator with Ks9s against QhJd already entered, a deal with no shared suit, and change any card to try your own hand. The matchups after it each swap one hand for a nearby one in the ranking.

How this was computed

This is an exact count with no sampling. For the 48 ways to deal one K9s and one QJo without reusing a card, grouped by suit pattern, every one of the 1,712,304 possible boards is dealt and both seven-card hands are compared. A tie counts as half a win in the equity column, and each board is counted once under each of its ten three-card flops.

Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.

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