K9s
57.16%
Wins 56.80%, ties 0.71%
QTs
42.84%
Wins 42.49%, ties 0.71%
K9s against QTs: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K9s | 56.803 | 0.706 | 42.491 | 57.156 |
| QTs | 42.491 | 0.706 | 56.803 | 42.844 |
Two suited hands meet here: K9s against QTs. The two hands share no rank, which makes this a pure matchup of card strength, straight chances and flush chances.
A 14.32 point lead is real, and QTs still takes about 425 of every 1,000 deals outright. Split pots make up 0.71% of the boards, and both equity figures count them as half a win each.
The hand ranking puts K9s at 29 and QTs at 34 out of 169 starting hands.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| K9s | 15,562,000 | 193,000 | 11,641,000 |
| QTs | 11,641,000 | 193,000 | 15,562,000 |
Exact total: 16 deals times 1,712,304 boards. The other three counts come from the five-decimal percentages and are rounded to the nearest thousand, so read them as approximate.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K9s | 1.334 | 1.760 | 2.353 | 0.750 |
| QTs | 0.750 | 2.353 | 1.760 | 1.334 |
The last column is the smallest pot odds, written as a pot-to-call ratio, at which a call breaks even with this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
If you know the kind of flop that came, the numbers shift: K9s holds 72.35% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) and 51.88% on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better. K9s stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.
| Flop | Share of flops | K9s wins | Ties | QTs wins | K9s equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.867 | 51.733 | 0.286 | 47.981 | 51.876 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.042 | 71.960 | 0.771 | 27.269 | 72.345 |
| Two-tone | 46.727 | 55.797 | 0.355 | 43.848 | 55.974 |
| Monotone | 5.273 | 52.741 | 3.468 | 43.791 | 54.475 |
| Paired | 17.091 | 61.643 | 1.371 | 36.986 | 62.328 |
Flop types: rainbow means three different suits, two-tone means one suit twice, monotone means one suit three times, paired means a repeated rank.
Compared with a random hand
Relative to a random opponent, K9s changes by -2.83 points (baseline 59.99%) and QTs by -16.63 points (baseline 59.47%).
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K9s, all flops | 57.156 | 59.988 | -2.832 | 0.95279 |
| K9s, rainbow, ten or higher | 51.876 | 59.988 | -8.112 | 0.86477 |
| K9s, rainbow, nine or lower | 72.345 | 59.988 | +12.357 | 1.20599 |
| K9s, two-tone | 55.974 | 59.988 | -4.014 | 0.93309 |
| K9s, monotone | 54.475 | 59.988 | -5.513 | 0.90810 |
| K9s, paired | 62.328 | 59.988 | +2.340 | 1.03901 |
| QTs, all flops | 42.844 | 59.468 | -16.624 | 0.72045 |
| QTs, rainbow, ten or higher | 48.124 | 59.468 | -11.344 | 0.80924 |
| QTs, rainbow, nine or lower | 27.655 | 59.468 | -31.813 | 0.46504 |
| QTs, two-tone | 44.026 | 59.468 | -15.442 | 0.74033 |
| QTs, monotone | 45.525 | 59.468 | -13.943 | 0.76554 |
| QTs, paired | 37.672 | 59.468 | -21.796 | 0.63348 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Looking only at deals where the hands share a suit, K9s has 59.10%; looking only at deals where they do not, 56.51%. K9s does better with a shared suit, by 2.59 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | K9s wins | Ties | QTs wins | K9s equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 4 | 25.00 | 58.703 | 0.792 | 40.505 | 59.099 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 75.00 | 56.170 | 0.677 | 43.153 | 56.508 |
How often this matchup comes up
You will meet this exact matchup 0.0020% of the time in a random heads-up deal: 32 of 1,624,350, counting either seat order.
A worked example
With $100 from each side, the $200 pot is split on average as $114.32 for K9s and $85.68 for QTs; the first side gains $14.32 per all-in and the second gives up $14.32.
In 1,000 deals of exactly this matchup, expect about 568 won outright by K9s, about 425 won outright by QTs and about 7 split.
The same matchup from the other side
If you came looking for QTs against K9s, the numbers are the same with the hands swapped: 42.84% and 57.16%.
Keep exploring
Try Ks9s against QhTh in the calculator: the hands share no suit, and every card can be changed. The links after it are the closest matchups in the ranking.
How this was computed
We counted every case. Each suit pattern of the 16 specific K9s against QTs deals meets all 1,712,304 boards, and the better five-card hand wins; a split pot is half a win each. The flop table reads each board under all ten of its three-card flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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