KK
82.20%
Wins 81.99%, ties 0.41%
Q9s
17.80%
Wins 17.60%, ties 0.41%
KK against Q9s: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KK | 81.994 | 0.406 | 17.600 | 82.197 |
| Q9s | 17.600 | 0.406 | 81.994 | 17.803 |
The matchup pits a pocket pair against a suited hand. A pair against two lower cards is a lopsided matchup: the pair is ahead and the other hand has no overcard to catch.
A gap this wide means Q9s is in trouble before the flop and has few good runouts. Split pots make up 0.41% of the boards, and both equity figures count them as half a win each.
For context, KK sits at number 2 of 169 starting hands and Q9s at number 43 when each is run against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| KK | 33,696,000 | 167,000 | 7,233,000 |
| Q9s | 7,233,000 | 167,000 | 33,696,000 |
The total is exact: 24 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards. The three counts are approximate, worked out from the percentages to five decimals and rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KK | 4.617 | 1.220 | 5.682 | 0.217 |
| Q9s | 0.217 | 5.682 | 1.220 | 4.617 |
In the last column, a pot-to-call ratio at or above the figure makes a call break even or better at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
If you know the kind of flop that came, the numbers shift: KK holds 86.96% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) and 76.14% on monotone flops. KK stays ahead on all five textures.
| Flop | Share of flops | KK wins | Ties | Q9s wins | KK equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.867 | 83.322 | 0.155 | 16.523 | 83.400 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.042 | 86.436 | 1.054 | 12.510 | 86.963 |
| Two-tone | 46.545 | 80.292 | 0.328 | 19.380 | 80.456 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 74.931 | 2.410 | 22.659 | 76.136 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 85.057 | 0.092 | 14.851 | 85.103 |
Flop types: rainbow means three different suits, two-tone means one suit twice, monotone means one suit three times, paired means a repeated rank.
Compared with a random hand
Start from the random-hand figures, 82.40% for KK and 57.66% for Q9s. This opponent changes them by -0.20 and -39.86 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KK, all flops | 82.197 | 82.396 | -0.199 | 0.99758 |
| KK, rainbow, ten or higher | 83.400 | 82.396 | +1.004 | 1.01219 |
| KK, rainbow, nine or lower | 86.963 | 82.396 | +4.567 | 1.05543 |
| KK, two-tone | 80.456 | 82.396 | -1.940 | 0.97646 |
| KK, monotone | 76.136 | 82.396 | -6.260 | 0.92403 |
| KK, paired | 85.103 | 82.396 | +2.707 | 1.03285 |
| Q9s, all flops | 17.803 | 57.664 | -39.861 | 0.30874 |
| Q9s, rainbow, ten or higher | 16.600 | 57.664 | -41.064 | 0.28787 |
| Q9s, rainbow, nine or lower | 13.037 | 57.664 | -44.627 | 0.22609 |
| Q9s, two-tone | 19.544 | 57.664 | -38.120 | 0.33893 |
| Q9s, monotone | 23.864 | 57.664 | -33.800 | 0.41385 |
| Q9s, paired | 14.897 | 57.664 | -42.767 | 0.25834 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Of the deals of this matchup, 12 share a suit (KK at 82.81%) and 12 do not (81.59%). KK does better with a shared suit, by 1.22 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | KK wins | Ties | Q9s wins | KK equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 50.00 | 82.584 | 0.446 | 16.970 | 82.807 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 50.00 | 81.404 | 0.365 | 18.231 | 81.586 |
How often this matchup comes up
Counting specific cards, KK against Q9s appears in 24 of the 1,624,350 ordered heads-up deals (0.0015%), and in 48 when the seats are swapped too (0.0030%).
A worked example
With $100 from each side, the $200 pot is split on average as $164.40 for KK and $35.60 for Q9s; the first side gains $64.40 per all-in and the second gives up $64.40.
Per 1,000 deals: KK wins about 820, Q9s wins about 176, and about 4 end in a split pot.
The same matchup from the other side
The mirror image, Q9s against KK, is 17.80% to 82.20%, and its address redirects to this page.
Keep exploring
Open the calculator with KsKh against Qd9d already entered, a deal with no shared suit, and change any card to try your own hand. The matchups after it each swap one hand for a nearby one in the ranking.
How this was computed
All 1,712,304 five-card boards are dealt for every suit pattern among the 24 specific deals of KK against Q9s, and both hands are scored on each. That is a full count, so the percentages are exact. Ties are half a win each, and each board appears once per flop it contains.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
Bring your own hands to a session
Review the spots you actually play against these numbers in a Game Assessment, and leave with a one-page written plan.
Book a session