KQs vs Q9s: preflop equity

The exact count puts KQs at 71.01% and Q9s at 28.99% when the two hands see all five board cards.

KQs

71.01%

Wins 69.78%, ties 2.45%

Q9s

28.99%

Wins 27.77%, ties 2.45%

Equity counts a tie as half a win. Exact over every board.

KQs against Q9s: the numbers

Exact preflop results for KQs against Q9s, in percent
HandWinsTiesLosesEquity
KQs69.7792.45427.76771.006
Q9s27.7672.45469.77928.994

The matchup is suited hands on both sides, KQs against Q9s. The two hands share a rank, and the one with the better other card dominates: it wins most kicker battles when that shared rank hits.

A lead of 42.02 points is large but not decisive: Q9s still takes about 278 of every 1,000 deals. 2.45% of boards are ties, so the equity of each hand is its win rate plus half of that.

For context, KQs sits at number 16 of 169 starting hands and Q9s at number 43 when each is run against a random hand.

Boards behind the percentages: 20,547,648 counted in all
HandBoards won, aboutBoards tied, aboutBoards lost, about
KQs14,338,000504,0005,705,000
Q9s5,705,000504,00014,338,000

The total is exact: 12 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards. The three counts are approximate, worked out from the percentages to five decimals and rounded to the nearest thousand.

KQs against Q9s read as odds
HandEquity as odds (to 1)Wins one deal inLoses one deal inPot odds needed to call (to 1)
KQs2.4491.4333.6010.408
Q9s0.4083.6011.4332.449

The final column gives the least the pot must offer for each unit called for a call to break even at this equity.

Who is ahead on which flops

KQs prefers rainbow flops topped by a ten or better, where it holds 75.94%, and likes low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) least, where it holds 61.14%. KQs stays ahead on all five textures.

KQs against Q9s by flop texture, in percent
FlopShare of flopsKQs winsTiesQ9s winsKQs equity
Rainbow, ten or higher23.86774.7842.31222.90475.940
Rainbow, nine or lower7.04260.6401.00038.36061.140
Two-tone46.54368.7971.82829.37569.711
Monotone5.21561.8164.36433.82063.998
Paired17.33371.6324.34424.02473.804

Flop types: rainbow means three different suits, two-tone means one suit twice, monotone means one suit three times, paired means a repeated rank.

Compared with a random hand

Compared with a random opponent, this matchup shifts KQs from 63.40% by +7.61 points and Q9s from 57.66% by -28.67 points.

KQs and Q9s here compared with each against a random hand, in percent
CaseEquity hereAgainst a random handChange in pointsTimes the random-hand equity
KQs, all flops71.00663.400+7.6061.11997
KQs, rainbow, ten or higher75.94063.400+12.5401.19779
KQs, rainbow, nine or lower61.14063.400-2.2600.96435
KQs, two-tone69.71163.400+6.3111.09954
KQs, monotone63.99863.400+0.5981.00943
KQs, paired73.80463.400+10.4041.16410
Q9s, all flops28.99457.664-28.6700.50281
Q9s, rainbow, ten or higher24.06057.664-33.6040.41724
Q9s, rainbow, nine or lower38.86057.664-18.8040.67390
Q9s, two-tone30.28957.664-27.3750.52527
Q9s, monotone36.00257.664-21.6620.62434
Q9s, paired26.19657.664-31.4680.45429

Does a shared suit matter?

A shared suit is impossible for this matchup, so KQs' 71.01% is the answer for every suit pattern.

KQs against Q9s by suit overlap, in percent
DealsSpecific dealsShare of dealsKQs winsTiesQ9s winsKQs equity
Share a suit00.00not possiblenot possiblenot possiblenot possible
No shared suit12100.0069.7792.45427.76771.006

How often this matchup comes up

The class pair covers 12 combinations of specific cards in a fixed seat order, 0.0007% of 1,624,350, and 24 (0.0015%) in either order.

A worked example

Worked example: both players commit $100, so $200 sits in the middle. Over every board, KQs' average share is $142.02 (a gain of $42.02) and Q9s' is $57.98 (a loss of $42.02).

Per 1,000 deals: KQs wins about 698, Q9s wins about 278, and about 24 end in a split pot.

The same matchup from the other side

Q9s against KQs adds nothing new: it is 28.99% for Q9s and 71.01% for KQs, the same figures reversed.

Try KsQs against Qh9h in the calculator: the hands share no suit, and every card can be changed. The links after it are the closest matchups in the ranking.

How this was computed

This is an exact count with no sampling. For the 12 ways to deal one KQs and one Q9s without reusing a card, grouped by suit pattern, every one of the 1,712,304 possible boards is dealt and both seven-card hands are compared. A tie counts as half a win in the equity column, and each board is counted once under each of its ten three-card flops.

Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.

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