KTo
48.21%
Wins 47.89%, ties 0.63%
44
51.79%
Wins 51.48%, ties 0.63%
KTo against 44: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KTo | 47.892 | 0.631 | 51.477 | 48.208 |
| 44 | 51.477 | 0.631 | 47.892 | 51.792 |
We compare an offsuit hand with a pocket pair. A pair against two higher cards is the classic race: the pair is usually a small favorite or close to even, and each overcard that pairs is a way to take the lead.
That is a slim edge: neither hand is far ahead. 0.63% of boards are ties, so the equity of each hand is its win rate plus half of that.
In the ranking of all 169 starting hands, KTo is number 33 and 44 is number 48.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| KTo | 59,044,000 | 778,000 | 63,464,000 |
| 44 | 63,464,000 | 778,000 | 59,044,000 |
The total is exact: 72 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards. The three counts are approximate, worked out from the percentages to five decimals and rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KTo | 0.931 | 2.088 | 1.943 | 1.074 |
| 44 | 1.074 | 1.943 | 2.088 | 0.931 |
The final column gives the least the pot must offer for each unit called for a call to break even at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
If you know the kind of flop that came, the numbers shift: 44 holds 77.74% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) and 44.94% on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better. KTo takes over on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better and monotone flops, so the favorite before the flop is the underdog on those boards.
| Flop | Share of flops | KTo wins | Ties | 44 wins | KTo equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 24.717 | 54.895 | 0.335 | 44.770 | 55.062 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 6.314 | 21.896 | 0.737 | 77.367 | 22.264 |
| Two-tone | 46.485 | 48.438 | 0.403 | 51.159 | 48.640 |
| Monotone | 5.151 | 49.709 | 2.065 | 48.226 | 50.741 |
| Paired | 17.333 | 45.370 | 1.203 | 53.427 | 45.971 |
Read the flop types this way: rainbow has three suits, two-tone has two cards of one suit, monotone has three, and paired repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
The table below sets each hand against its own random-hand baseline: a change of -11.53 points for KTo, from 59.74%, and -5.23 for 44, from 57.02%.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KTo, all flops | 48.208 | 59.739 | -11.531 | 0.80698 |
| KTo, rainbow, ten or higher | 55.062 | 59.739 | -4.677 | 0.92171 |
| KTo, rainbow, nine or lower | 22.264 | 59.739 | -37.475 | 0.37269 |
| KTo, two-tone | 48.640 | 59.739 | -11.099 | 0.81421 |
| KTo, monotone | 50.741 | 59.739 | -8.998 | 0.84938 |
| KTo, paired | 45.971 | 59.739 | -13.768 | 0.76953 |
| 44, all flops | 51.792 | 57.023 | -5.231 | 0.90827 |
| 44, rainbow, ten or higher | 44.938 | 57.023 | -12.085 | 0.78807 |
| 44, rainbow, nine or lower | 77.736 | 57.023 | +20.713 | 1.36324 |
| 44, two-tone | 51.360 | 57.023 | -5.663 | 0.90069 |
| 44, monotone | 49.259 | 57.023 | -7.764 | 0.86384 |
| 44, paired | 54.029 | 57.023 | -2.994 | 0.94749 |
Does a shared suit matter?
The suit split reads 51.71% for 44 with a shared suit and 52.22% without one. 44 does better with no shared suit, by 0.51 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | KTo wins | Ties | 44 wins | KTo equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 60 | 83.33 | 47.971 | 0.645 | 51.384 | 48.294 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 16.67 | 47.496 | 0.565 | 51.939 | 47.779 |
How often this matchup comes up
Counting specific cards, KTo against 44 appears in 72 of the 1,624,350 ordered heads-up deals (0.0044%), and in 144 when the seats are swapped too (0.0089%).
A worked example
Say each player puts $100 in before the flop, making a $200 pot. On average 44 takes back $103.58 of it, which is $3.58 more than it put in, and KTo takes back $96.42, $3.58 less than it put in.
Over a long run, 1,000 deals split into about 515 for 44, 479 for KTo and 6 tied.
The same matchup from the other side
44 against KTo adds nothing new: it is 51.79% for 44 and 48.21% for KTo, the same figures reversed.
Keep exploring
Open the calculator with KsTh against 4d4c already entered, a deal with no shared suit, and change any card to try your own hand. The matchups after it each swap one hand for a nearby one in the ranking.
How this was computed
Each figure is a complete count over boards. Take the 72 specific deals, group them by suit pattern, deal all 1,712,304 boards against each, and compare the two seven-card hands. Equity counts a tie as half a win; the flop rows use every one of a board's ten flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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