QTs
51.68%
Wins 51.28%, ties 0.80%
44
48.32%
Wins 47.92%, ties 0.80%
QTs against 44: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QTs | 51.280 | 0.802 | 47.918 | 51.681 |
| 44 | 47.918 | 0.802 | 51.280 | 48.319 |
The matchup pits a suited hand against a pocket pair. This is a pair against two overcards, a matchup that stays close because the other hand only needs one of its ranks to appear.
QTs leads by less than 4 points of equity, so the result of any one deal is close to a toss-up. Ties are part of the picture: 0.80% of boards end in a split pot, and each side counts that as half a win.
Place 34 of 169 belongs to QTs and place 48 belongs to 44 in the ranking against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| QTs | 21,074,000 | 330,000 | 19,692,000 |
| 44 | 19,692,000 | 330,000 | 21,074,000 |
24 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards gives the exact total. The won, tied and lost counts are approximations from the five-decimal percentages, rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QTs | 1.070 | 1.950 | 2.087 | 0.935 |
| 44 | 0.935 | 2.087 | 1.950 | 1.070 |
The last column is the smallest pot odds, written as a pot-to-call ratio, at which a call breaks even with this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
Across the five flop textures QTs' equity moves by 31.10 points, from 26.50% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) to 57.60% on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better. 44 takes over on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) and paired flops, so the favorite before the flop is the underdog on those boards.
| Flop | Share of flops | QTs wins | Ties | 44 wins | QTs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 24.595 | 57.390 | 0.411 | 42.199 | 57.596 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 6.314 | 26.159 | 0.682 | 73.159 | 26.500 |
| Two-tone | 46.545 | 52.930 | 0.443 | 46.627 | 53.152 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 49.768 | 2.926 | 47.306 | 51.231 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 47.785 | 1.723 | 50.492 | 48.646 |
Rainbow flops have three suits, two-tone flops repeat one suit, monotone flops are all one suit, and paired flops repeat a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Relative to a random opponent, QTs changes by -7.79 points (baseline 59.47%) and 44 by -8.70 points (baseline 57.02%).
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QTs, all flops | 51.681 | 59.468 | -7.787 | 0.86906 |
| QTs, rainbow, ten or higher | 57.596 | 59.468 | -1.872 | 0.96852 |
| QTs, rainbow, nine or lower | 26.500 | 59.468 | -32.968 | 0.44562 |
| QTs, two-tone | 53.152 | 59.468 | -6.316 | 0.89379 |
| QTs, monotone | 51.231 | 59.468 | -8.237 | 0.86149 |
| QTs, paired | 48.646 | 59.468 | -10.822 | 0.81802 |
| 44, all flops | 48.319 | 57.023 | -8.704 | 0.84736 |
| 44, rainbow, ten or higher | 42.404 | 57.023 | -14.619 | 0.74363 |
| 44, rainbow, nine or lower | 73.500 | 57.023 | +16.477 | 1.28895 |
| 44, two-tone | 46.848 | 57.023 | -10.175 | 0.82156 |
| 44, monotone | 48.769 | 57.023 | -8.254 | 0.85525 |
| 44, paired | 51.354 | 57.023 | -5.669 | 0.90058 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Of the deals of this matchup, 12 share a suit (QTs at 51.53%) and 12 do not (51.83%). QTs does better with no shared suit, by 0.30 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | QTs wins | Ties | 44 wins | QTs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 50.00 | 51.109 | 0.840 | 48.051 | 51.529 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 50.00 | 51.451 | 0.763 | 47.786 | 51.833 |
How often this matchup comes up
How often does it happen? 24 of the 1,624,350 ordered deals (0.0015%) are QTs against 44, and 48 (0.0030%) if either hand may sit in either seat.
A worked example
To see what the equity is worth, imagine $100 each in a $200 pot. QTs is worth $103.36 on average (+$3.36); 44 is worth $96.64 (-$3.36).
Think in thousands: about 513 of 1,000 go to QTs, about 479 go to 44, and about 8 are chopped.
The same matchup from the other side
Read it from the other side: 44 against QTs is the same matchup with the numbers swapped, so 44 holds 48.32% and QTs holds 51.68%. That address sends you back to this page.
Keep exploring
The calculator link fills in QsTs against 4h4d, a deal where the two hands share no suit. Change any card to test your own hand. The neighboring matchups below swap one of the two hands for one of similar strength.
How this was computed
Nothing here is simulated. The 24 deals of QTs against 44 fall into a few suit patterns, each dealt against all 1,712,304 boards, with both best five-card hands compared on every board. Ties give each hand half a win, and the flop rows count a board under each of its ten flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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