KTo
69.63%
Wins 68.22%, ties 2.83%
QTs
30.37%
Wins 28.95%, ties 2.83%
KTo against QTs: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KTo | 68.217 | 2.825 | 28.958 | 69.630 |
| QTs | 28.958 | 2.825 | 68.217 | 30.370 |
One side is an offsuit hand, the other is a suited hand. Because the hands share one rank, the one with the higher kicker is ahead when that rank pairs and the other hand is mostly drawing.
KTo is well ahead, and QTs needs a specific kind of board to catch up. Split pots make up 2.83% of the boards, and both equity figures count them as half a win each.
For context, KTo sits at number 33 of 169 starting hands and QTs at number 34 when each is run against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| KTo | 42,051,000 | 1,741,000 | 17,851,000 |
| QTs | 17,851,000 | 1,741,000 | 42,051,000 |
Exact total: 36 deals times 1,712,304 boards. The other three counts come from the five-decimal percentages and are rounded to the nearest thousand, so read them as approximate.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KTo | 2.293 | 1.466 | 3.453 | 0.436 |
| QTs | 0.436 | 3.453 | 1.466 | 2.293 |
In the last column, a pot-to-call ratio at or above the figure makes a call break even or better at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
The flop changes the picture. KTo does best on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower), at 81.13%, and worst on monotone flops, at 65.05%. KTo stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.
| Flop | Share of flops | KTo wins | Ties | QTs wins | KTo equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.177 | 66.920 | 2.417 | 30.663 | 68.128 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.771 | 79.797 | 2.665 | 17.538 | 81.130 |
| Two-tone | 46.527 | 66.733 | 2.328 | 30.939 | 67.897 |
| Monotone | 5.192 | 63.177 | 3.750 | 33.073 | 65.052 |
| Paired | 17.333 | 70.255 | 4.496 | 25.249 | 72.503 |
Flop types: rainbow means three different suits, two-tone means one suit twice, monotone means one suit three times, paired means a repeated rank.
Compared with a random hand
A random hand would give KTo 59.74% and QTs 59.47%. Against each other the change is +9.89 points for KTo and -29.10 for QTs.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KTo, all flops | 69.630 | 59.739 | +9.891 | 1.16557 |
| KTo, rainbow, ten or higher | 68.128 | 59.739 | +8.389 | 1.14043 |
| KTo, rainbow, nine or lower | 81.130 | 59.739 | +21.391 | 1.35807 |
| KTo, two-tone | 67.897 | 59.739 | +8.158 | 1.13656 |
| KTo, monotone | 65.052 | 59.739 | +5.313 | 1.08894 |
| KTo, paired | 72.503 | 59.739 | +12.764 | 1.21366 |
| QTs, all flops | 30.370 | 59.468 | -29.098 | 0.51069 |
| QTs, rainbow, ten or higher | 31.872 | 59.468 | -27.596 | 0.53595 |
| QTs, rainbow, nine or lower | 18.870 | 59.468 | -40.598 | 0.31731 |
| QTs, two-tone | 32.103 | 59.468 | -27.365 | 0.53984 |
| QTs, monotone | 34.948 | 59.468 | -24.520 | 0.58768 |
| QTs, paired | 27.497 | 59.468 | -31.971 | 0.46238 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Does suit overlap move the numbers? KTo has 70.64% when the hands share a suit and 69.13% when they do not. KTo does better with a shared suit, by 1.51 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | KTo wins | Ties | QTs wins | KTo equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 33.33 | 69.181 | 2.911 | 27.908 | 70.637 |
| No shared suit | 24 | 66.67 | 67.735 | 2.781 | 29.484 | 69.126 |
How often this matchup comes up
KTo against QTs is made up of 36 specific-card matchups in one seat order, 0.0022% of the 1,624,350 ordered deals, and 72 counting both seat orders, 0.0044%.
A worked example
Worked example: both players commit $100, so $200 sits in the middle. Over every board, KTo's average share is $139.26 (a gain of $39.26) and QTs' is $60.74 (a loss of $39.26).
Think in thousands: about 682 of 1,000 go to KTo, about 290 go to QTs, and about 28 are chopped.
The same matchup from the other side
QTs versus KTo is this same page seen from the other hand: 30.37% for QTs, 69.63% for KTo.
Keep exploring
The calculator link fills in KsTh against QdTd, a deal where the two hands share no suit. Change any card to test your own hand. The neighboring matchups below swap one of the two hands for one of similar strength.
How this was computed
We counted every case. Each suit pattern of the 36 specific KTo against QTs deals meets all 1,712,304 boards, and the better five-card hand wins; a split pot is half a win each. The flop table reads each board under all ten of its three-card flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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