KTs
51.25%
Wins 50.86%, ties 0.76%
33
48.75%
Wins 48.38%, ties 0.76%
KTs against 33: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KTs | 50.863 | 0.764 | 48.373 | 51.245 |
| 33 | 48.373 | 0.764 | 50.863 | 48.755 |
Here a suited hand (KTs) meets a pocket pair (33). A pair against two higher cards is the classic race: the pair is usually a small favorite or close to even, and each overcard that pairs is a way to take the lead.
KTs leads by less than 3 points of equity, so the result of any one deal is close to a toss-up. Split pots make up 0.76% of the boards, and both equity figures count them as half a win each.
Place 22 of 169 belongs to KTs and place 66 belongs to 33 in the ranking against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| KTs | 20,902,000 | 314,000 | 19,879,000 |
| 33 | 19,879,000 | 314,000 | 20,902,000 |
The total is exact: 24 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards. The three counts are approximate, worked out from the percentages to five decimals and rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KTs | 1.051 | 1.966 | 2.067 | 0.951 |
| 33 | 0.951 | 2.067 | 1.966 | 1.051 |
The last column is the break-even price: the pot odds a call needs to offer, as a ratio of pot to call.
Who is ahead on which flops
Split by what the flop looks like, KTs peaks at 56.70% on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better and bottoms out at 25.65% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower). The overall edge for KTs hides low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) and paired flops, where 33 comes out in front.
| Flop | Share of flops | KTs wins | Ties | 33 wins | KTs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 24.595 | 56.519 | 0.358 | 43.123 | 56.698 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 6.314 | 25.208 | 0.878 | 73.914 | 25.647 |
| Two-tone | 46.545 | 52.151 | 0.435 | 47.414 | 52.368 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 49.268 | 3.259 | 47.473 | 50.897 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 49.204 | 1.430 | 49.366 | 49.919 |
Rainbow flops have three suits, two-tone flops repeat one suit, monotone flops are all one suit, and paired flops repeat a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Relative to a random opponent, KTs changes by -10.54 points (baseline 61.79%) and 33 by -4.94 points (baseline 53.69%).
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KTs, all flops | 51.245 | 61.789 | -10.544 | 0.82935 |
| KTs, rainbow, ten or higher | 56.698 | 61.789 | -5.091 | 0.91761 |
| KTs, rainbow, nine or lower | 25.647 | 61.789 | -36.142 | 0.41507 |
| KTs, two-tone | 52.368 | 61.789 | -9.421 | 0.84753 |
| KTs, monotone | 50.897 | 61.789 | -10.892 | 0.82372 |
| KTs, paired | 49.919 | 61.789 | -11.870 | 0.80789 |
| 33, all flops | 48.755 | 53.693 | -4.938 | 0.90803 |
| 33, rainbow, ten or higher | 43.302 | 53.693 | -10.391 | 0.80647 |
| 33, rainbow, nine or lower | 74.353 | 53.693 | +20.660 | 1.38478 |
| 33, two-tone | 47.632 | 53.693 | -6.061 | 0.88712 |
| 33, monotone | 49.103 | 53.693 | -4.590 | 0.91451 |
| 33, paired | 50.081 | 53.693 | -3.612 | 0.93273 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Two kinds of deal exist here. In 12 of them the hands share a suit and KTs holds 51.08%. In 12 they do not, and it holds 51.41%. KTs does better with no shared suit, by 0.33 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | KTs wins | Ties | 33 wins | KTs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 50.00 | 50.678 | 0.795 | 48.527 | 51.076 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 50.00 | 51.048 | 0.733 | 48.219 | 51.414 |
How often this matchup comes up
You will meet this exact matchup 0.0030% of the time in a random heads-up deal: 48 of 1,624,350, counting either seat order.
A worked example
Worked example: both players commit $100, so $200 sits in the middle. Over every board, KTs' average share is $102.50 (a gain of $2.50) and 33's is $97.50 (a loss of $2.50).
Run 1,000 deals and the tally comes out near 508 for KTs, 484 for 33 and 8 ties.
The same matchup from the other side
33 against KTs adds nothing new: it is 48.75% for 33 and 51.25% for KTs, the same figures reversed.
Keep exploring
Try KsTs against 3h3d in the calculator: the hands share no suit, and every card can be changed. The links after it are the closest matchups in the ranking.
How this was computed
Each figure is a complete count over boards. Take the 24 specific deals, group them by suit pattern, deal all 1,712,304 boards against each, and compare the two seven-card hands. Equity counts a tie as half a win; the flop rows use every one of a board's ten flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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