KTs
50.65%
Wins 50.33%, ties 0.65%
44
49.35%
Wins 49.02%, ties 0.65%
KTs against 44: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KTs | 50.327 | 0.652 | 49.021 | 50.653 |
| 44 | 49.021 | 0.652 | 50.327 | 49.347 |
The first hand is a suited hand; the second is a pocket pair. One hand holds a pair and the other holds two cards that both outrank it, which keeps the equity closer than most people expect.
KTs leads by less than 2 points of equity, so the result of any one deal is close to a toss-up. A split pot comes up on 0.65% of boards, so the wins and the equity differ by half of that.
In the ranking of all 169 starting hands, KTs is number 22 and 44 is number 48.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| KTs | 20,682,000 | 268,000 | 20,145,000 |
| 44 | 20,145,000 | 268,000 | 20,682,000 |
The total is exact: 24 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards. The three counts are approximate, worked out from the percentages to five decimals and rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KTs | 1.026 | 1.987 | 2.040 | 0.974 |
| 44 | 0.974 | 2.040 | 1.987 | 1.026 |
The last column is the smallest pot odds, written as a pot-to-call ratio, at which a call breaks even with this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
If you know the kind of flop that came, the numbers shift: KTs holds 56.44% on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better and 24.86% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower). KTs is the favorite overall but falls behind on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) and paired flops.
| Flop | Share of flops | KTs wins | Ties | 44 wins | KTs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 24.595 | 56.280 | 0.323 | 43.397 | 56.441 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 6.314 | 24.510 | 0.709 | 74.781 | 24.864 |
| Two-tone | 46.545 | 51.834 | 0.378 | 47.788 | 52.023 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 49.012 | 2.870 | 48.118 | 50.447 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 47.637 | 1.166 | 51.197 | 48.220 |
Read the flop types this way: rainbow has three suits, two-tone has two cards of one suit, monotone has three, and paired repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Each hand has a baseline against a random hand: 61.79% for KTs, 57.02% for 44. Here the change is -11.14 and -7.67 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KTs, all flops | 50.653 | 61.789 | -11.136 | 0.81977 |
| KTs, rainbow, ten or higher | 56.441 | 61.789 | -5.348 | 0.91345 |
| KTs, rainbow, nine or lower | 24.864 | 61.789 | -36.925 | 0.40240 |
| KTs, two-tone | 52.023 | 61.789 | -9.766 | 0.84195 |
| KTs, monotone | 50.447 | 61.789 | -11.342 | 0.81644 |
| KTs, paired | 48.220 | 61.789 | -13.569 | 0.78040 |
| 44, all flops | 49.347 | 57.023 | -7.676 | 0.86539 |
| 44, rainbow, ten or higher | 43.559 | 57.023 | -13.464 | 0.76388 |
| 44, rainbow, nine or lower | 75.136 | 57.023 | +18.113 | 1.31764 |
| 44, two-tone | 47.977 | 57.023 | -9.046 | 0.84136 |
| 44, monotone | 49.553 | 57.023 | -7.470 | 0.86900 |
| 44, paired | 51.780 | 57.023 | -5.243 | 0.90805 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Two kinds of deal exist here. In 12 of them the hands share a suit and KTs holds 50.49%. In 12 they do not, and it holds 50.82%. KTs does better with no shared suit, by 0.33 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | KTs wins | Ties | 44 wins | KTs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 50.00 | 50.141 | 0.690 | 49.169 | 50.486 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 50.00 | 50.514 | 0.614 | 48.872 | 50.821 |
How often this matchup comes up
Counting specific cards, KTs against 44 appears in 24 of the 1,624,350 ordered heads-up deals (0.0015%), and in 48 when the seats are swapped too (0.0030%).
A worked example
A $100 all-in from each player makes a $200 pot, and the exact equity says KTs gets $101.30 of it on average and 44 gets $98.70.
Over a long run, 1,000 deals split into about 503 for KTs, 490 for 44 and 7 tied.
The same matchup from the other side
44 against KTs adds nothing new: it is 49.35% for 44 and 50.65% for KTs, the same figures reversed.
Keep exploring
The calculator link fills in KsTs against 4h4d, a deal where the two hands share no suit. Change any card to test your own hand. The neighboring matchups below swap one of the two hands for one of similar strength.
How this was computed
This is an exact count with no sampling. For the 24 ways to deal one KTs and one 44 without reusing a card, grouped by suit pattern, every one of the 1,712,304 possible boards is dealt and both seven-card hands are compared. A tie counts as half a win in the equity column, and each board is counted once under each of its ten three-card flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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