Q9s
70.15%
Wins 68.29%, ties 3.71%
J9s
29.85%
Wins 28.00%, ties 3.71%
Q9s against J9s: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q9s | 68.293 | 3.711 | 27.996 | 70.148 |
| J9s | 27.996 | 3.711 | 68.293 | 29.852 |
Each side holds one of the suited hands: Q9s and J9s. The two hands share a rank, and the one with the better other card dominates: it wins most kicker battles when that shared rank hits.
A lead of 40.30 points is large but not decisive: J9s still takes about 280 of every 1,000 deals. 3.71% of boards are ties, so the equity of each hand is its win rate plus half of that.
For context, Q9s sits at number 43 of 169 starting hands and J9s at number 55 when each is run against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q9s | 14,033,000 | 763,000 | 5,753,000 |
| J9s | 5,753,000 | 763,000 | 14,033,000 |
The total is exact: 12 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards. The three counts are approximate, worked out from the percentages to five decimals and rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q9s | 2.350 | 1.464 | 3.572 | 0.426 |
| J9s | 0.426 | 3.572 | 1.464 | 2.350 |
The last column is the smallest pot odds, written as a pot-to-call ratio, at which a call breaks even with this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
Split by what the flop looks like, Q9s peaks at 80.85% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) and bottoms out at 63.36% on monotone flops. Q9s stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.
| Flop | Share of flops | Q9s wins | Ties | J9s wins | Q9s equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 24.595 | 68.086 | 2.877 | 29.037 | 69.525 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 6.314 | 78.830 | 4.047 | 17.123 | 80.854 |
| Two-tone | 46.543 | 67.592 | 2.838 | 29.570 | 69.011 |
| Monotone | 5.215 | 60.776 | 5.173 | 34.051 | 63.363 |
| Paired | 17.333 | 68.893 | 6.673 | 24.434 | 72.230 |
Read the flop types this way: rainbow has three suits, two-tone has two cards of one suit, monotone has three, and paired repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
How much does the opponent matter? Compared with its random-hand 57.66%, Q9s changes by +12.49 points, and J9s, from 55.66%, by -25.81.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q9s, all flops | 70.148 | 57.664 | +12.484 | 1.21650 |
| Q9s, rainbow, ten or higher | 69.525 | 57.664 | +11.861 | 1.20569 |
| Q9s, rainbow, nine or lower | 80.854 | 57.664 | +23.190 | 1.40216 |
| Q9s, two-tone | 69.011 | 57.664 | +11.347 | 1.19678 |
| Q9s, monotone | 63.363 | 57.664 | +5.699 | 1.09883 |
| Q9s, paired | 72.230 | 57.664 | +14.566 | 1.25260 |
| J9s, all flops | 29.852 | 55.662 | -25.810 | 0.53631 |
| J9s, rainbow, ten or higher | 30.475 | 55.662 | -25.187 | 0.54750 |
| J9s, rainbow, nine or lower | 19.146 | 55.662 | -36.516 | 0.34397 |
| J9s, two-tone | 30.989 | 55.662 | -24.673 | 0.55674 |
| J9s, monotone | 36.637 | 55.662 | -19.025 | 0.65820 |
| J9s, paired | 27.770 | 55.662 | -27.892 | 0.49890 |
Does a shared suit matter?
For this pair the shared-suit row is empty: the two hands cannot both own a card of one suit without reusing a card.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | Q9s wins | Ties | J9s wins | Q9s equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 0 | 0.00 | not possible | not possible | not possible | not possible |
| No shared suit | 12 | 100.00 | 68.293 | 3.711 | 27.996 | 70.148 |
How often this matchup comes up
How often does it happen? 12 of the 1,624,350 ordered deals (0.0007%) are Q9s against J9s, and 24 (0.0015%) if either hand may sit in either seat.
A worked example
Say each player puts $100 in before the flop, making a $200 pot. On average Q9s takes back $140.30 of it, which is $40.30 more than it put in, and J9s takes back $59.70, $40.30 less than it put in.
Over a long run, 1,000 deals split into about 683 for Q9s, 280 for J9s and 37 tied.
The same matchup from the other side
If you came looking for J9s against Q9s, the numbers are the same with the hands swapped: 29.85% and 70.15%.
Keep exploring
Try Qs9s against Jh9h in the calculator: the hands share no suit, and every card can be changed. The links after it are the closest matchups in the ranking.
How this was computed
Nothing here is simulated. The 12 deals of Q9s against J9s fall into a few suit patterns, each dealt against all 1,712,304 boards, with both best five-card hands compared on every board. Ties give each hand half a win, and the flop rows count a board under each of its ten flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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