Q9s
57.01%
Wins 56.55%, ties 0.93%
JTs
42.99%
Wins 42.52%, ties 0.93%
Q9s against JTs: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q9s | 56.546 | 0.930 | 42.524 | 57.011 |
| JTs | 42.524 | 0.930 | 56.546 | 42.989 |
The matchup is suited hands on both sides, Q9s against JTs. The two hands share no rank, which makes this a pure matchup of card strength, straight chances and flush chances.
The lead is steady rather than large, and the flop still has plenty of say in who wins. Ties are 0.93% of the outcomes here; each tied board gives both hands half the pot.
By strength against a random hand, Q9s holds place 43 of 169 and JTs holds place 45.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q9s | 15,492,000 | 255,000 | 11,650,000 |
| JTs | 11,650,000 | 255,000 | 15,492,000 |
The board total is exact, 16 deals at 1,712,304 boards each. Won, tied and lost counts are rounded to the nearest thousand from the five-decimal percentages.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q9s | 1.326 | 1.768 | 2.352 | 0.754 |
| JTs | 0.754 | 2.352 | 1.768 | 1.326 |
The last column is the smallest pot odds, written as a pot-to-call ratio, at which a call breaks even with this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
Split by what the flop looks like, Q9s peaks at 69.77% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) and bottoms out at 52.52% on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better. Q9s stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.
| Flop | Share of flops | Q9s wins | Ties | JTs wins | Q9s equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.867 | 52.296 | 0.437 | 47.267 | 52.515 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.042 | 69.421 | 0.702 | 29.877 | 69.772 |
| Two-tone | 46.727 | 55.661 | 0.450 | 43.889 | 55.886 |
| Monotone | 5.273 | 52.644 | 3.529 | 43.827 | 54.409 |
| Paired | 17.091 | 60.798 | 2.225 | 36.977 | 61.910 |
A rainbow flop shows three suits, a two-tone flop repeats one suit, a monotone flop is a single suit, and a paired flop repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Each hand has a baseline against a random hand: 57.66% for Q9s, 57.53% for JTs. Here the change is -0.65 and -14.54 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q9s, all flops | 57.011 | 57.664 | -0.653 | 0.98868 |
| Q9s, rainbow, ten or higher | 52.515 | 57.664 | -5.149 | 0.91071 |
| Q9s, rainbow, nine or lower | 69.772 | 57.664 | +12.108 | 1.20998 |
| Q9s, two-tone | 55.886 | 57.664 | -1.778 | 0.96917 |
| Q9s, monotone | 54.409 | 57.664 | -3.255 | 0.94355 |
| Q9s, paired | 61.910 | 57.664 | +4.246 | 1.07363 |
| JTs, all flops | 42.989 | 57.528 | -14.539 | 0.74727 |
| JTs, rainbow, ten or higher | 47.485 | 57.528 | -10.043 | 0.82542 |
| JTs, rainbow, nine or lower | 30.228 | 57.528 | -27.300 | 0.52545 |
| JTs, two-tone | 44.114 | 57.528 | -13.414 | 0.76683 |
| JTs, monotone | 45.591 | 57.528 | -11.937 | 0.79250 |
| JTs, paired | 38.090 | 57.528 | -19.438 | 0.66211 |
Does a shared suit matter?
The suit split reads 58.95% for Q9s with a shared suit and 56.37% without one. Q9s does better with a shared suit, by 2.58 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | Q9s wins | Ties | JTs wins | Q9s equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 4 | 25.00 | 58.432 | 1.027 | 40.541 | 58.946 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 75.00 | 55.917 | 0.898 | 43.185 | 56.366 |
How often this matchup comes up
You will meet this exact matchup 0.0020% of the time in a random heads-up deal: 32 of 1,624,350, counting either seat order.
A worked example
Put $100 each into a $200 pot and deal every board once: Q9s averages $114.02 back, ahead of its $100 by $14.02, while JTs averages $85.98, short of its $100 by $14.02.
A thousand deals look like this: Q9s takes 566, JTs takes 425, 9 are ties.
The same matchup from the other side
JTs versus Q9s is this same page seen from the other hand: 42.99% for JTs, 57.01% for Q9s.
Keep exploring
Open the calculator with Qs9s against JhTh already entered, a deal with no shared suit, and change any card to try your own hand. The matchups after it each swap one hand for a nearby one in the ranking.
How this was computed
All 1,712,304 five-card boards are dealt for every suit pattern among the 16 specific deals of Q9s against JTs, and both hands are scored on each. That is a full count, so the percentages are exact. Ties are half a win each, and each board appears once per flop it contains.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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