QJo
48.97%
Wins 48.57%, ties 0.80%
44
51.03%
Wins 50.63%, ties 0.80%
QJo against 44: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QJo | 48.571 | 0.803 | 50.626 | 48.973 |
| 44 | 50.626 | 0.803 | 48.571 | 51.027 |
The matchup pits an offsuit hand against a pocket pair. This is a pair against two overcards, a matchup that stays close because the other hand only needs one of its ranks to appear.
That is a slim edge: neither hand is far ahead. Ties are 0.80% of the outcomes here; each tied board gives both hands half the pot.
For context, QJo sits at number 39 of 169 starting hands and 44 at number 48 when each is run against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| QJo | 59,881,000 | 990,000 | 62,415,000 |
| 44 | 62,415,000 | 990,000 | 59,881,000 |
The board total is exact, 72 deals at 1,712,304 boards each. Won, tied and lost counts are rounded to the nearest thousand from the five-decimal percentages.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QJo | 0.960 | 2.059 | 1.975 | 1.042 |
| 44 | 1.042 | 1.975 | 2.059 | 0.960 |
The final column gives the least the pot must offer for each unit called for a call to break even at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
By flop texture, 44's equity runs from 43.83% on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better up to 77.70% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower). QJo takes over on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better and monotone flops, so the favorite before the flop is the underdog on those boards.
| Flop | Share of flops | QJo wins | Ties | 44 wins | QJo equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 24.717 | 55.981 | 0.385 | 43.634 | 56.174 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 6.314 | 21.825 | 0.959 | 77.216 | 22.304 |
| Two-tone | 46.485 | 49.258 | 0.488 | 50.254 | 49.502 |
| Monotone | 5.151 | 50.298 | 2.148 | 47.554 | 51.372 |
| Paired | 17.333 | 45.389 | 1.790 | 52.821 | 46.284 |
A rainbow flop shows three suits, a two-tone flop repeats one suit, a monotone flop is a single suit, and a paired flop repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Compared with a random opponent, this matchup shifts QJo from 58.14% by -9.17 points and 44 from 57.02% by -5.99 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QJo, all flops | 48.973 | 58.135 | -9.162 | 0.84240 |
| QJo, rainbow, ten or higher | 56.174 | 58.135 | -1.961 | 0.96627 |
| QJo, rainbow, nine or lower | 22.304 | 58.135 | -35.831 | 0.38366 |
| QJo, two-tone | 49.502 | 58.135 | -8.633 | 0.85150 |
| QJo, monotone | 51.372 | 58.135 | -6.763 | 0.88367 |
| QJo, paired | 46.284 | 58.135 | -11.851 | 0.79615 |
| 44, all flops | 51.027 | 57.023 | -5.996 | 0.89485 |
| 44, rainbow, ten or higher | 43.826 | 57.023 | -13.197 | 0.76857 |
| 44, rainbow, nine or lower | 77.696 | 57.023 | +20.673 | 1.36254 |
| 44, two-tone | 50.498 | 57.023 | -6.525 | 0.88557 |
| 44, monotone | 48.628 | 57.023 | -8.395 | 0.85278 |
| 44, paired | 53.716 | 57.023 | -3.307 | 0.94201 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Does suit overlap move the numbers? 44 has 50.94% when the hands share a suit and 51.47% when they do not. 44 does better with no shared suit, by 0.53 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | QJo wins | Ties | 44 wins | QJo equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 60 | 83.33 | 48.652 | 0.817 | 50.531 | 49.061 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 16.67 | 48.163 | 0.737 | 51.100 | 48.531 |
How often this matchup comes up
Counting specific cards, QJo against 44 appears in 72 of the 1,624,350 ordered heads-up deals (0.0044%), and in 144 when the seats are swapped too (0.0089%).
A worked example
Put $100 each into a $200 pot and deal every board once: 44 averages $102.06 back, ahead of its $100 by $2.06, while QJo averages $97.94, short of its $100 by $2.06.
Out of 1,000 deals you should see around 506 outright wins for 44, 486 for QJo, and 8 split pots.
The same matchup from the other side
One page covers both views. From 44's side the equity is 51.03%, and from QJo's side it is 48.97%.
Keep exploring
The calculator link fills in QsJh against 4d4c, a deal where the two hands share no suit. Change any card to test your own hand. The neighboring matchups below swap one of the two hands for one of similar strength.
How this was computed
We counted every case. Each suit pattern of the 72 specific QJo against 44 deals meets all 1,712,304 boards, and the better five-card hand wins; a split pot is half a win each. The flop table reads each board under all ten of its three-card flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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