79.13%
Wins 78.91%, ties 0.46%
53s
20.87%
Wins 20.63%, ties 0.46%
QQ against 53s: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78.905 | 0.457 | 20.638 | 79.134 | |
| 53s | 20.638 | 0.457 | 78.905 | 20.866 |
QQ is a pocket pair and 53s is a suited hand. The pair outranks both of the other hand's cards, which is why the pair is a strong favorite.
That is a clear edge, 79.13% to 20.87%, but 53s still wins often enough that one hand proves nothing. About 0.46% of boards chop the pot, which is why equity sits slightly above the win figure for both hands.
Place 3 of 169 belongs to QQ and place 146 belongs to 53s in the ranking against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32,426,000 | 188,000 | 8,481,000 | |
| 53s | 8,481,000 | 188,000 | 32,426,000 |
Exact total: 24 deals times 1,712,304 boards. The other three counts come from the five-decimal percentages and are rounded to the nearest thousand, so read them as approximate.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.792 | 1.267 | 4.845 | 0.264 | |
| 53s | 0.264 | 4.845 | 1.267 | 3.792 |
In the last column, a pot-to-call ratio at or above the figure makes a call break even or better at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
Split by what the flop looks like, QQ peaks at 84.31% on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better and bottoms out at 66.61% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower). QQ stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.
| Flop | Share of flops | QQ wins | Ties | 53s wins | QQ equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 24.595 | 84.203 | 0.213 | 15.584 | 84.310 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 6.314 | 66.053 | 1.112 | 32.835 | 66.609 |
| Two-tone | 46.545 | 77.042 | 0.371 | 22.587 | 77.227 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 72.594 | 2.519 | 24.887 | 73.853 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 82.971 | 0.176 | 16.853 | 83.059 |
A rainbow flop shows three suits, a two-tone flop repeats one suit, a monotone flop is a single suit, and a paired flop repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Each hand has a baseline against a random hand: 79.93% for QQ, 39.69% for 53s. Here the change is -0.80 and -18.82 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QQ, all flops | 79.134 | 79.925 | -0.791 | 0.99010 |
| QQ, rainbow, ten or higher | 84.310 | 79.925 | +4.385 | 1.05486 |
| QQ, rainbow, nine or lower | 66.609 | 79.925 | -13.316 | 0.83339 |
| QQ, two-tone | 77.227 | 79.925 | -2.698 | 0.96624 |
| QQ, monotone | 73.853 | 79.925 | -6.072 | 0.92403 |
| QQ, paired | 83.059 | 79.925 | +3.134 | 1.03921 |
| 53s, all flops | 20.866 | 39.693 | -18.827 | 0.52568 |
| 53s, rainbow, ten or higher | 15.690 | 39.693 | -24.003 | 0.39528 |
| 53s, rainbow, nine or lower | 33.391 | 39.693 | -6.302 | 0.84123 |
| 53s, two-tone | 22.773 | 39.693 | -16.920 | 0.57373 |
| 53s, monotone | 26.147 | 39.693 | -13.546 | 0.65873 |
| 53s, paired | 16.941 | 39.693 | -22.752 | 0.42680 |
Does a shared suit matter?
When the hands share a suit, QQ holds 79.72%; when they do not, it holds 78.55%. QQ does better with a shared suit, by 1.17 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | QQ wins | Ties | 53s wins | QQ equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 50.00 | 79.466 | 0.498 | 20.036 | 79.715 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 50.00 | 78.345 | 0.416 | 21.239 | 78.553 |
How often this matchup comes up
You will meet this exact matchup 0.0030% of the time in a random heads-up deal: 48 of 1,624,350, counting either seat order.
A worked example
Try it with money: two players each put in $100 and the whole board runs out every possible way. QQ averages $158.26 from the $200, up $58.26; 53s averages $41.74, down $58.26.
Scaled to 1,000 deals, that is roughly 789 wins for QQ, 206 for 53s and 5 chopped pots.
The same matchup from the other side
53s against QQ adds nothing new: it is 20.87% for 53s and 79.13% for QQ, the same figures reversed.
Keep exploring
Try QsQh against 5d3d in the calculator: the hands share no suit, and every card can be changed. The links after it are the closest matchups in the ranking.
How this was computed
The figures are counted, not estimated: 1,712,304 boards for every suit pattern of the 24 specific deals, with both seven-card hands compared each time. Equity gives half a win for a tie. For the flop rows, a board is counted once under each of the ten flops inside it.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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