QTo
49.92%
Wins 49.44%, ties 0.96%
33
50.08%
Wins 49.60%, ties 0.96%
QTo against 33: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QTo | 49.440 | 0.961 | 49.599 | 49.920 |
| 33 | 49.599 | 0.961 | 49.440 | 50.080 |
The first hand is an offsuit hand; the second is a pocket pair. This is a pair against two overcards, a matchup that stays close because the other hand only needs one of its ranks to appear.
This is close to even money, with 33 a little ahead. Ties are 0.96% of the outcomes here; each tied board gives both hands half the pot.
Place 47 of 169 belongs to QTo and place 66 belongs to 33 in the ranking against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| QTo | 60,953,000 | 1,185,000 | 61,149,000 |
| 33 | 61,149,000 | 1,185,000 | 60,953,000 |
Exact total: 72 deals times 1,712,304 boards. The other three counts come from the five-decimal percentages and are rounded to the nearest thousand, so read them as approximate.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QTo | 0.997 | 2.023 | 2.016 | 1.003 |
| 33 | 1.003 | 2.016 | 2.023 | 0.997 |
In the last column, a pot-to-call ratio at or above the figure makes a call break even or better at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
Break the boards down by their first three cards and 33 is strongest on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) (75.23%) and weakest on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better (43.49%). Watch for rainbow flops topped by a ten or better, two-tone flops and monotone flops: on those flops QTo holds the better equity.
| Flop | Share of flops | QTo wins | Ties | 33 wins | QTo equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 24.717 | 56.260 | 0.497 | 43.243 | 56.508 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 6.314 | 24.331 | 0.888 | 74.781 | 24.775 |
| Two-tone | 46.485 | 49.971 | 0.562 | 49.467 | 50.252 |
| Monotone | 5.151 | 50.888 | 2.452 | 46.660 | 52.114 |
| Paired | 17.333 | 47.005 | 2.274 | 50.721 | 48.142 |
Rainbow flops have three suits, two-tone flops repeat one suit, monotone flops are all one suit, and paired flops repeat a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Relative to a random opponent, QTo changes by -7.37 points (baseline 57.29%) and 33 by -3.61 points (baseline 53.69%).
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QTo, all flops | 49.920 | 57.291 | -7.371 | 0.87134 |
| QTo, rainbow, ten or higher | 56.508 | 57.291 | -0.783 | 0.98633 |
| QTo, rainbow, nine or lower | 24.775 | 57.291 | -32.516 | 0.43244 |
| QTo, two-tone | 50.252 | 57.291 | -7.039 | 0.87714 |
| QTo, monotone | 52.114 | 57.291 | -5.177 | 0.90964 |
| QTo, paired | 48.142 | 57.291 | -9.149 | 0.84031 |
| 33, all flops | 50.080 | 53.693 | -3.613 | 0.93271 |
| 33, rainbow, ten or higher | 43.492 | 53.693 | -10.201 | 0.81001 |
| 33, rainbow, nine or lower | 75.225 | 53.693 | +21.532 | 1.40102 |
| 33, two-tone | 49.748 | 53.693 | -3.945 | 0.92653 |
| 33, monotone | 47.886 | 53.693 | -5.807 | 0.89185 |
| 33, paired | 51.858 | 53.693 | -1.835 | 0.96582 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Split by suits, the deals give 33 49.99% when the hands overlap in a suit and 50.52% when they do not. 33 does better with no shared suit, by 0.53 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | QTo wins | Ties | 33 wins | QTo equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 60 | 83.33 | 49.523 | 0.972 | 49.505 | 50.009 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 16.67 | 49.023 | 0.906 | 50.071 | 49.476 |
How often this matchup comes up
How often does it happen? 72 of the 1,624,350 ordered deals (0.0044%) are QTo against 33, and 144 (0.0089%) if either hand may sit in either seat.
A worked example
Take a $200 pot built from $100 each. 33's equity of 50.08% is worth $100.16, a $0.16 edge, and QTo's 49.92% is worth $99.84, which is $0.16 under its stake.
Over a long run, 1,000 deals split into about 496 for 33, 494 for QTo and 10 tied.
The same matchup from the other side
The reversed view, 33 against QTo, shows 50.08% for 33 and 49.92% for QTo. It is the same count, so it redirects here.
Keep exploring
Open the calculator with QsTh against 3d3c already entered, a deal with no shared suit, and change any card to try your own hand. The matchups after it each swap one hand for a nearby one in the ranking.
How this was computed
The figures are counted, not estimated: 1,712,304 boards for every suit pattern of the 72 specific deals, with both seven-card hands compared each time. Equity gives half a win for a tie. For the flop rows, a board is counted once under each of the ten flops inside it.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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