TT vs 99: preflop equity

Averaged over every possible board, TT is ahead of 99 by 64.00 points of equity, 82.00% to 18.00%.

TT

82.00%

Wins 81.75%, ties 0.50%

99

18.00%

Wins 17.75%, ties 0.50%

Equity counts a tie as half a win. Exact over every board.

TT against 99: the numbers

Exact preflop results for TT against 99, in percent
HandWinsTiesLosesEquity
TT81.7500.50217.74882.001
9917.7480.50281.75017.999

The matchup is pocket pairs on both sides, TT against 99. Two pairs against each other is a one-way street: the lower pair needs one of its two remaining cards.

This is one of the lopsided matchups: 99 wins only 17.75% of the boards outright. A split pot comes up on 0.50% of boards, so the wins and the equity differ by half of that.

Among the 169 starting hands, TT is number 5 and 99 is number 6 by strength against a random hand.

Boards behind the percentages: 61,642,944 counted in all
HandBoards won, aboutBoards tied, aboutBoards lost, about
TT50,393,000309,00010,940,000
9910,940,000309,00050,393,000

The total is exact: 36 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards. The three counts are approximate, worked out from the percentages to five decimals and rounded to the nearest thousand.

TT against 99 read as odds
HandEquity as odds (to 1)Wins one deal inLoses one deal inPot odds needed to call (to 1)
TT4.5561.2235.6340.219
990.2195.6341.2234.556

In the last column, a pot-to-call ratio at or above the figure makes a call break even or better at this equity.

Who is ahead on which flops

By flop texture, TT's equity runs from 71.00% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) up to 86.51% on paired flops. TT stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.

TT against 99 by flop texture, in percent
FlopShare of flopsTT winsTies99 winsTT equity
Rainbow, ten or higher24.59584.3640.24215.39484.485
Rainbow, nine or lower6.31470.5460.89728.55770.995
Two-tone46.36380.9280.36318.70981.109
Monotone5.15275.3901.75022.86076.265
Paired17.57686.1510.72413.12586.513

A rainbow flop shows three suits, a two-tone flop repeats one suit, a monotone flop is a single suit, and a paired flop repeats a rank.

Compared with a random hand

A random hand would give TT 75.01% and 99 72.06%. Against each other the change is +6.99 points for TT and -54.06 for 99.

TT and 99 here compared with each against a random hand, in percent
CaseEquity hereAgainst a random handChange in pointsTimes the random-hand equity
TT, all flops82.00175.012+6.9891.09317
TT, rainbow, ten or higher84.48575.012+9.4731.12629
TT, rainbow, nine or lower70.99575.012-4.0170.94645
TT, two-tone81.10975.012+6.0971.08128
TT, monotone76.26575.012+1.2531.01670
TT, paired86.51375.012+11.5011.15332
99, all flops17.99972.057-54.0580.24979
99, rainbow, ten or higher15.51572.057-56.5420.21532
99, rainbow, nine or lower29.00572.057-43.0520.40253
99, two-tone18.89172.057-53.1660.26217
99, monotone23.73572.057-48.3220.32939
99, paired13.48772.057-58.5700.18717

Does a shared suit matter?

When the hands share a suit, TT holds 82.14%; when they do not, it holds 81.31%. TT does better with a shared suit, by 0.83 points.

TT against 99 by suit overlap, in percent
DealsSpecific dealsShare of dealsTT winsTies99 winsTT equity
Share a suit3083.3381.8810.51717.60282.139
No shared suit616.6781.0980.42318.47981.309

How often this matchup comes up

How often does it happen? 36 of the 1,624,350 ordered deals (0.0022%) are TT against 99, and 72 (0.0044%) if either hand may sit in either seat.

A worked example

Worked example: both players commit $100, so $200 sits in the middle. Over every board, TT's average share is $164.00 (a gain of $64.00) and 99's is $36.00 (a loss of $64.00).

Per 1,000 deals: TT wins about 818, 99 wins about 177, and about 5 end in a split pot.

The same matchup from the other side

One page covers both views. From 99's side the equity is 18.00%, and from TT's side it is 82.00%.

TsTh against 9d9c is a ready-made deal for the calculator, with no suit in common between the hands. The neighboring matchups below replace one hand with another of similar strength.

How this was computed

This is an exact count with no sampling. For the 36 ways to deal one TT and one 99 without reusing a card, grouped by suit pattern, every one of the 1,712,304 possible boards is dealt and both seven-card hands are compared. A tie counts as half a win in the equity column, and each board is counted once under each of its ten three-card flops.

Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.

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