TT
54.06%
Wins 53.86%, ties 0.41%
AKs
45.94%
Wins 45.73%, ties 0.41%
TT against AKs: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TT | 53.860 | 0.407 | 45.733 | 54.063 |
| AKs | 45.733 | 0.407 | 53.860 | 45.937 |
TT is a pocket pair and AKs is a suited hand. A pair against two higher cards is the classic race: the pair is usually a small favorite or close to even, and each overcard that pairs is a way to take the lead.
That is a slim edge: neither hand is far ahead. 0.41% of boards are ties, so the equity of each hand is its win rate plus half of that.
The hand ranking puts TT at 5 and AKs at 8 out of 169 starting hands.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| TT | 22,134,000 | 167,000 | 18,794,000 |
| AKs | 18,794,000 | 167,000 | 22,134,000 |
The board total is exact, 24 deals at 1,712,304 boards each. Won, tied and lost counts are rounded to the nearest thousand from the five-decimal percentages.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TT | 1.177 | 1.857 | 2.187 | 0.850 |
| AKs | 0.850 | 2.187 | 1.857 | 1.177 |
The last column is the smallest pot odds, written as a pot-to-call ratio, at which a call breaks even with this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
The flop changes the picture. TT does best on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower), at 71.49%, and worst on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better, at 48.59%. On rainbow flops topped by a ten or better the numbers flip and AKs is the one ahead.
| Flop | Share of flops | TT wins | Ties | AKs wins | TT equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.138 | 48.518 | 0.137 | 51.345 | 48.587 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.771 | 70.998 | 0.981 | 28.021 | 71.488 |
| Two-tone | 46.545 | 51.772 | 0.317 | 47.911 | 51.931 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 51.260 | 2.398 | 46.342 | 52.459 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 59.692 | 0.156 | 40.152 | 59.770 |
Rainbow flops have three suits, two-tone flops repeat one suit, monotone flops are all one suit, and paired flops repeat a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Compared with a random opponent, this matchup shifts TT from 75.01% by -20.95 points and AKs from 67.05% by -21.11 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TT, all flops | 54.063 | 75.012 | -20.949 | 0.72072 |
| TT, rainbow, ten or higher | 48.587 | 75.012 | -26.425 | 0.64772 |
| TT, rainbow, nine or lower | 71.488 | 75.012 | -3.524 | 0.95302 |
| TT, two-tone | 51.931 | 75.012 | -23.081 | 0.69230 |
| TT, monotone | 52.459 | 75.012 | -22.553 | 0.69934 |
| TT, paired | 59.770 | 75.012 | -15.242 | 0.79681 |
| AKs, all flops | 45.937 | 67.045 | -21.108 | 0.68517 |
| AKs, rainbow, ten or higher | 51.413 | 67.045 | -15.632 | 0.76684 |
| AKs, rainbow, nine or lower | 28.512 | 67.045 | -38.533 | 0.42527 |
| AKs, two-tone | 48.069 | 67.045 | -18.976 | 0.71697 |
| AKs, monotone | 47.541 | 67.045 | -19.504 | 0.70909 |
| AKs, paired | 40.230 | 67.045 | -26.815 | 0.60004 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Of the deals of this matchup, 12 share a suit (TT at 54.23%) and 12 do not (53.89%). TT does better with a shared suit, by 0.34 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | TT wins | Ties | AKs wins | TT equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 50.00 | 54.007 | 0.450 | 45.543 | 54.232 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 50.00 | 53.712 | 0.365 | 45.923 | 53.894 |
How often this matchup comes up
You will meet this exact matchup 0.0030% of the time in a random heads-up deal: 48 of 1,624,350, counting either seat order.
A worked example
Try it with money: two players each put in $100 and the whole board runs out every possible way. TT averages $108.12 from the $200, up $8.12; AKs averages $91.88, down $8.12.
Over a long run, 1,000 deals split into about 539 for TT, 457 for AKs and 4 tied.
The same matchup from the other side
AKs versus TT is this same page seen from the other hand: 45.94% for AKs, 54.06% for TT.
Keep exploring
The calculator link fills in TsTh against AdKd, a deal where the two hands share no suit. Change any card to test your own hand. The neighboring matchups below swap one of the two hands for one of similar strength.
How this was computed
The figures are counted, not estimated: 1,712,304 boards for every suit pattern of the 24 specific deals, with both seven-card hands compared each time. Equity gives half a win for a tie. For the flop rows, a board is counted once under each of the ten flops inside it.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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