TT
67.97%
Wins 67.76%, ties 0.41%
Q9s
32.03%
Wins 31.83%, ties 0.41%
TT against Q9s: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TT | 67.762 | 0.411 | 31.827 | 67.967 |
| Q9s | 31.827 | 0.411 | 67.762 | 32.033 |
TT is a pocket pair and Q9s is a suited hand. The pair sits between the other hand's two cards: one is higher and one is lower, so the pair is exposed to the higher card.
That is a clear edge, 67.97% to 32.03%, but Q9s still wins often enough that one hand proves nothing. 0.41% of boards are ties, so the equity of each hand is its win rate plus half of that.
The hand ranking puts TT at 5 and Q9s at 43 out of 169 starting hands.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| TT | 27,847,000 | 169,000 | 13,079,000 |
| Q9s | 13,079,000 | 169,000 | 27,847,000 |
The board total is exact, 24 deals at 1,712,304 boards each. Won, tied and lost counts are rounded to the nearest thousand from the five-decimal percentages.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TT | 2.122 | 1.476 | 3.142 | 0.471 |
| Q9s | 0.471 | 3.142 | 1.476 | 2.122 |
The last column is the break-even price: the pot odds a call needs to offer, as a ratio of pot to call.
Who is ahead on which flops
The flop changes the picture. TT does best on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower), at 79.72%, and worst on monotone flops, at 63.22%. TT stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.
| Flop | Share of flops | TT wins | Ties | Q9s wins | TT equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.867 | 66.359 | 0.174 | 33.467 | 66.446 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.042 | 79.333 | 0.775 | 19.892 | 79.720 |
| Two-tone | 46.545 | 66.043 | 0.285 | 33.672 | 66.185 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 62.030 | 2.383 | 35.587 | 63.222 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 71.332 | 0.337 | 28.331 | 71.500 |
A rainbow flop shows three suits, a two-tone flop repeats one suit, a monotone flop is a single suit, and a paired flop repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
A random hand would give TT 75.01% and Q9s 57.66%. Against each other the change is -7.04 points for TT and -25.63 for Q9s.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TT, all flops | 67.967 | 75.012 | -7.045 | 0.90608 |
| TT, rainbow, ten or higher | 66.446 | 75.012 | -8.566 | 0.88580 |
| TT, rainbow, nine or lower | 79.720 | 75.012 | +4.708 | 1.06276 |
| TT, two-tone | 66.185 | 75.012 | -8.827 | 0.88233 |
| TT, monotone | 63.222 | 75.012 | -11.790 | 0.84283 |
| TT, paired | 71.500 | 75.012 | -3.512 | 0.95318 |
| Q9s, all flops | 32.033 | 57.664 | -25.631 | 0.55551 |
| Q9s, rainbow, ten or higher | 33.554 | 57.664 | -24.110 | 0.58189 |
| Q9s, rainbow, nine or lower | 20.280 | 57.664 | -37.384 | 0.35169 |
| Q9s, two-tone | 33.815 | 57.664 | -23.849 | 0.58641 |
| Q9s, monotone | 36.778 | 57.664 | -20.886 | 0.63780 |
| Q9s, paired | 28.500 | 57.664 | -29.164 | 0.49424 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Does suit overlap move the numbers? TT has 68.21% when the hands share a suit and 67.73% when they do not. TT does better with a shared suit, by 0.48 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | TT wins | Ties | Q9s wins | TT equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 50.00 | 67.981 | 0.453 | 31.566 | 68.208 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 50.00 | 67.542 | 0.370 | 32.088 | 67.727 |
How often this matchup comes up
Counting specific cards, TT against Q9s appears in 24 of the 1,624,350 ordered heads-up deals (0.0015%), and in 48 when the seats are swapped too (0.0030%).
A worked example
To see what the equity is worth, imagine $100 each in a $200 pot. TT is worth $135.94 on average (+$35.94); Q9s is worth $64.06 (-$35.94).
Scaled to 1,000 deals, that is roughly 678 wins for TT, 318 for Q9s and 4 chopped pots.
The same matchup from the other side
Read it from the other side: Q9s against TT is the same matchup with the numbers swapped, so Q9s holds 32.03% and TT holds 67.97%. That address sends you back to this page.
Keep exploring
The calculator link fills in TsTh against Qd9d, a deal where the two hands share no suit. Change any card to test your own hand. The neighboring matchups below swap one of the two hands for one of similar strength.
How this was computed
We counted every case. Each suit pattern of the 24 specific TT against Q9s deals meets all 1,712,304 boards, and the better five-card hand wins; a split pot is half a win each. The flop table reads each board under all ten of its three-card flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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