Equity a call needs
35.71%
against a 1.25x-pot bet
- Pot oddsfor every 1 you call1.8 : 1
- Bet on a $100 potone and a quarter times the pot$125
- Pot after your callyou put in $125$350
The price of a 1.25x-pot bet
You risk $125 to win $225, so you must be right 35.71% of the time just to break even.
e = f / (1 + 2f)f = 1.25e = 1.25 / (1 + 2 x 1.25) = 35.71%Pot odds = (1 + 1.25) / 1.25 = 1.8 : 1
The odds are 1.8 : 1, and the two forms agree: $125 divided by $350 is 35.71%.
A $100 pot facing a 1.25x-pot bet
Run the numbers on $100: the bet is $125, the pot is $225 and your call is $125.
- Pot before the bet$100
- Opponent bets$125
- You call$125
- Pot after your call$350
- You risk$125
- You can win$225
- Equity needed35.71%
Call, and $350 sits in the pot. Since you paid $125, your break-even chance is 35.71%.
Which draws can call a 1.25x-pot bet
Every row shows how a draw stacks up against a 1.25x-pot bet. Take the chance to hit, subtract 35.71%, and the sign tells you the call.
Counting the flop rows above 35.71% gives 2. The lowest draw among them is a flush draw with a gutshot, with 12 outs.
The turn is the problem street here. Nothing on the list gets past 35.71%, and the best draw stops at 32.61%.
| Draw | Outs | Flop: hit by the river | Flop margin | Flop verdict | Turn: hit on the river | Turn margin | Turn verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A pocket pair that wants a set | 2 | 8.42% | -27.30 points | Fold | 4.35% | -31.37 points | Fold |
| One overcard to top pair | 3 | 12.49% | -23.23 points | Fold | 6.52% | -29.19 points | Fold |
| A gutshot straight draw | 4 | 16.47% | -19.25 points | Fold | 8.70% | -27.02 points | Fold |
| Two overcards | 6 | 24.14% | -11.57 points | Fold | 13.04% | -22.67 points | Fold |
| An open-ended straight draw | 8 | 31.45% | -4.26 points | Fold | 17.39% | -18.32 points | Fold |
| A flush draw | 9 | 34.97% | -0.75 points | Fold | 19.57% | -16.15 points | Fold |
| A flush draw with a gutshot | 12 | 44.96% | +9.24 points | Call | 26.09% | -9.63 points | Fold |
| A flush draw with an open-ended straight draw | 15 | 54.12% | +18.40 points | Call | 32.61% | -3.11 points | Fold |
Implied odds against a 1.25x-pot bet
Start from $125 over $350, which is 35.71%, then add W to the bottom. Every extra dollar you can win later cuts the equity you need.
The price drops in steps: 35.71% with nothing extra, 31.25% with $50, and 14.71% with $500.
At 19.57% the turn flush draw cannot call alone. It needs $288.89 still to be won after the card hits.
Against a player who bets big whenever you hit, implied odds are real. Against one who folds, they are close to zero.
Reverse implied odds work the other way. If you can hit and still lose to a better hand, you may pay more later, so the real price is above 35.71%.
| Future winnings W | Pot after call plus W | Equity needed | Change from the plain price | Flush draw margin from the flop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0 | $350 | 35.71% | 0.00 points | -0.75 points |
| $50 | $400 | 31.25% | -4.46 points | +3.72 points |
| $100 | $450 | 27.78% | -7.94 points | +7.19 points |
| $250 | $600 | 20.83% | -14.88 points | +14.13 points |
| $500 | $850 | 14.71% | -21.01 points | +20.26 points |
1.25x-pot next to the other sizes
The next smaller size is pot-size, at 33.33%. Moving from there to 1.25x-pot adds 2.38 points to the price.
The 1.5x-pot bet is the neighbor above. It needs 37.50%, so it is 1.79 points steeper than this size.
- Pot odds facing a pot-size bet: Needs 33.33%, 2.38 points less.
- Pot odds facing a 1.5x-pot bet: Needs 37.50%, 1.79 points more.
The outs that justify a call
Two cards to come make the flop easier: 10 outs are enough to call a 1.25x-pot bet, with 38.39% to hit by the river.
On the turn you need more outs, since only one card is left: 17 outs reach 36.96%, while one fewer gives 34.78%.
- 10 outs on the flop: 38.39% by the river against 35.71%.
- 17 outs on the turn: 36.96% on the river against 35.71%.
How this is computed
Start with a $100 pot and a $125 bet. The page finds $350 as the pot after your call, divides $125 by it, and compares the answer with draws on two streets.
The closed form is e = f / (1 + 2f). Call the pot P and the bet B = f x P. You call B, so the pot after your call is P + 2B and your share is B / (P + 2B), which equals f / (1 + 2f). With f = 1.25 that gives 35.71%.
The model is plain: you call all of the bet, no one bets again, and your outs win the whole pot. With 47 unseen cards on the flop and 46 on the turn, every card has the same chance.
Method: the closed form f / (1 + 2f) computed by the GeorgeLiPoker math library, with draw chances counted from the unseen cards.
Updated
Questions
What equity do you need to call a 1.25x-pot bet?
The answer is 35.71%. For a $100 pot, a $125 bet and a $125 call, the pot reaches $350, and 35.71% is your share of the cost. Beat it and the call is worth making.
How many outs do you need against a 1.25x-pot bet?
On the flop, 10 outs is the minimum for a call here, at 38.39% by the river. On the turn you need 17 outs. Outs that give a rival a better hand do not count in full, so adjust before deciding.
How much do implied odds help against a 1.25x-pot bet?
They lower the price. Expecting $500 more after you hit takes 21.01 points off the bar, leaving 14.71% instead of 35.71%. The effect shrinks fast when your opponent folds to your bets or when stacks are short.
Can you call a 1.25x-pot bet with a flush draw?
Nine outs is the usual count for a flush draw. On the flop its chance to hit by the river is 34.97%, which is below 35.71%, so it is a fold. On the turn the chance is 19.57%, which is below 35.71%, so it is a fold. The decision can move with implied odds, so look at the stacks.
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