Verdict
Call
16 outs, flop, third-pot bet
- Chance to hit by the rivertwo cards to come56.98%
- Equity the call needs$33.33 into a pot of $166.6720.00%
- Margin over the priceyour chance minus the price+36.98 points
Comparing the draw with the bet
The call is clearly worth making. 56.98% is your chance to hit, 20.00% is the price, and the gap between them is 36.98 points.
No single everyday draw has exactly 16 outs, so a count like this usually combines draws. One card from the 47 unseen helps 34.04% of the time.
A $100 pot, step by step
- Starting pot$100
- Size of the bet$33.33
- Cost to call$33.33
- Pot after your call$166.67
- You can win on a hit$133.33
- Net loss when you miss$33.33
- Your chance to hit56.98%
- Average value of the call+$61.64
- Break-even equity20.00%
- Unrounded margin+36.9843 points
- Outs at break-even4.91 outs
- Your outs minus break-even outs+11.09 outs
Stay with simple rules: the whole pot on a hit, the call lost on a miss, no more money in. Under them calling gains $61.64 on average. The hit side averages $75.98, the miss side $14.34, and each dollar called returns +1.849.
In odds, you face 0.75 : 1 against you and the pot pays 4 : 1.
The correct pot to divide by includes your call. Without it the price reads 25.00% rather than 20.00%, and the margin reads +31.9843 points. With the starting pot alone it reads 33.33% and +23.6509 points.
Reverse implied odds and your margin
5 outs is the line for a third-pot bet on the flop. Your 16 sit 11 outs above it, and the chance at the line is 20.35%.
Your margin is worth $108.17 in later losses. Past that, 3.25 times your call, folding would have been better.
| Given back later | Price with it | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0 | 20.00% | +36.98 points | +$61.64 | Call |
| $10 | 21.28% | +35.71 points | +$55.94 | Call |
| $25 | 23.53% | +33.45 points | +$47.39 | Call |
| $50 | 28.57% | +28.41 points | +$33.15 | Call |
| $100 | 50.00% | +6.98 points | +$4.66 | Call |
Next card or river
Here the cards to come do not matter for the verdict. 34.04% on one card and 56.98% on two both say call at a price of 20.00%.
| Cards counted | Chance | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| By the river, two cards | 56.98% | +36.9843 points | +$61.64 | Call |
| Next card only | 34.04% | +14.0426 points | +$23.40 | Call |
Neighbors of this draw
Move up or down a few outs and watch the verdict. Every extra out is worth about 2.78 points on the flop, and the price stays at 20.00%.
The same draw against other bet sizes
Look down the margin column to see where the draw stops paying. Every row uses 16 outs on the flop and a bet of a different size.
No bet size here outprices a 56.98% chance. The call works at all 12 sizes, since the highest price is 44.44%.
| Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| quarter-pot | 16.67% | +40.32 points | Call |
| third-pot, this page | 20.00% | +36.98 points | Call |
| two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | +34.76 points | Call |
| half-pot | 25.00% | +31.98 points | Call |
| two-thirds-pot | 28.57% | +28.41 points | Call |
| three-quarter-pot | 30.00% | +26.98 points | Call |
| pot-size | 33.33% | +23.65 points | Call |
| 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | +21.27 points | Call |
| 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | +19.48 points | Call |
| 2x-pot | 40.00% | +16.98 points | Call |
| 3x-pot | 42.86% | +14.13 points | Call |
| 4x-pot | 44.44% | +12.54 points | Call |
Pages that use the same math
How this is computed
No sampling is involved. On the flop there are 1,081 pairs of unseen cards, and 465 of them contain no out, which leaves 56.98% for at least one out.
The model is deliberately simple: call everything, win everything on a hit, face no more bets, deal from 47 equally likely unseen cards, and ignore an opponent's holding. With the price at $33.33 / $166.67 = 20.00%, later streets and shared outs are what change the real answer.
Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library.
Updated
Questions
Should you call a third-pot bet with 16 outs on the flop?
By the numbers it is a call. 16 outs on the flop hit 56.98% by the river, a third-pot bet needs 20.00%, and the margin is +36.98 points. That assumes you call the full $33.33 and no more betting follows, and it values the call at +$61.64 per $100 pot.
What count of outs clears the price of a third-pot bet on the flop?
A call starts to work at 5 outs: 20.35% to hit versus 20.00% needed. One out fewer drops the chance to 16.47%. You hold 16, which is 11 more than the minimum.
Does it matter whether you count one card or two against a third-pot bet?
Two cards cost one bet only if the hand really ends here, and then 56.98% applies. If you will face the turn bet as well, 34.04% applies. Versus 20.00%, both views give a call.
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