Verdict
Call
16 outs, flop, pot-size bet
- Chance to hit by the rivertwo cards to come56.98%
- Equity the call needs$100 into a pot of $30033.33%
- Margin over the priceyour chance minus the price+23.65 points
The call in numbers
The price is 33.33% and your chance is 56.98%. You sit 23.65 points above the line, which is a wide gap, so you call.
A total of 16 outs tends to come from stacking several ways to improve. The next card is an out 34.04% of the time, 16 in 47.
Counting the chips on a $100 pot
- The pot before betting$100
- Bet$100
- You call$100
- Total pot after calling$300
- You can win on a hit$200
- Net loss when you miss$100
- Chance to hit by the river56.98%
- Expected value of a call+$70.95
- Break-even equity33.33%
- Unrounded margin+23.6509 points
- Fractional outs at the price8.53 outs
- Your outs minus break-even outs+7.47 outs
Expected value says the same in dollars. Win the whole pot on a hit, lose your call on a miss, add no more betting, and the call gains $70.95 on average: $113.97 in, $43.02 out, +0.710 per dollar called.
The same comparison in odds: the odds against hitting are 0.75 : 1, and the pot lays 2 : 1 on a call.
The correct pot to divide by includes your call. Without it the price reads 50.00% rather than 33.33%, and the margin reads +6.9843 points.
How much room the call has
With 16 outs you sit 7 outs above the minimum of 9 that a pot-size bet requires on the flop.
Later betting can cut into the call. You may surrender $124.51, or 1.25 times your call, after a hit and still break even.
| Given back later | Price with it | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0 | 33.33% | +23.65 points | +$70.95 | Call |
| $10 | 34.48% | +22.50 points | +$65.25 | Call |
| $25 | 36.36% | +20.62 points | +$56.71 | Call |
| $50 | 40.00% | +16.98 points | +$42.46 | Call |
| $100 | 50.00% | +6.98 points | +$13.97 | Call |
Pricing one card at a time
Use either number and the verdict is a call. The next card is 34.04%, the full runout is 56.98%, and the price is 33.33%.
| Cards counted | Chance | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| By the river, two cards | 56.98% | +23.6509 points | +$70.95 | Call |
| Next card only | 34.04% | +0.7092 points | +$2.13 | Call |
A few outs either way
One out can change the answer, so the table lists the counts on either side of 16. Each out adds roughly 2.78 points against the 33.33% price.
The draw across every bet size
One draw, 12 bets. Each row gives the equity the call needs, the margin over it, and the verdict for 16 outs on the flop.
Your chance is high enough that any bet in the table is a call. All 12 sizes clear with 56.98%.
| Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| quarter-pot | 16.67% | +40.32 points | Call |
| third-pot | 20.00% | +36.98 points | Call |
| two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | +34.76 points | Call |
| half-pot | 25.00% | +31.98 points | Call |
| two-thirds-pot | 28.57% | +28.41 points | Call |
| three-quarter-pot | 30.00% | +26.98 points | Call |
| pot-size, this page | 33.33% | +23.65 points | Call |
| 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | +21.27 points | Call |
| 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | +19.48 points | Call |
| 2x-pot | 40.00% | +16.98 points | Call |
| 3x-pot | 42.86% | +14.13 points | Call |
| 4x-pot | 44.44% | +12.54 points | Call |
How this is computed
The chance rests on counting, not on a rule of thumb. Blank pairs: 465 out of 1,081; hit chance: 56.98%.
What is held fixed: the call equals the bet, so the price is $100 / $300 = 33.33%; the pot is won whole on a hit; there is no further betting; and each of the 47 unseen cards is as likely as any other. Opponent cards are not removed.
Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library.
Updated
Questions
Are 16 outs on the flop worth a call against a bet of the full pot?
Reduce the question to a comparison of two numbers: 56.98% to hit and 33.33% to break even. The first minus the second is +23.65 points, which makes this a call, and the call averages +$70.95 on a $100 pot if no more betting follows.
At what count of outs does a pot-size bet on the flop become a call?
9 outs is the line. At 9 the chance is 34.97%, enough for 33.33%; one fewer gives 31.45%, which is not. Your 16 outs sit 7 above it on the flop, at 56.98%.
When is the next-card chance the better comparison?
Count two cards, 56.98%, when the bet is the last money going in, and one card, 34.04%, when the next street brings another bet. At a price of 33.33%, either number leads to a call.
Related pages
Check your own hands against the numbers
Bring a hand you played and we will work through the price, the chance to hit and the decision together.
Book a session