Verdict
Fold
6 outs, flop, pot-size bet
- Chance to hit by the rivertwo cards to come24.14%
- Equity the call needs$100 into a pot of $30033.33%
- Margin over the priceyour chance minus the price-9.19 points
Comparing the draw with the bet
Your draw is priced at 33.33% and it arrives just 24.14% of the time. A gap of 9.19 points is large, and later bets would have to be large to make up for it.
Holding two overcards gives you exactly 6 outs, out of 47 unseen cards. One card hits 12.77% of the time.
Counting the chips on a $100 pot
- Starting pot$100
- Your opponent bets$100
- You call$100
- Total pot after calling$300
- Net gain when you hit$200
- You lose on a miss$100
- Your chance to hit24.14%
- Expected value of a call-$27.57
- Break-even equity33.33%
- Unrounded margin-9.1890 points
- Outs that exactly reach the price8.53 outs
- Margin measured in outs-2.53 outs
Over many identical spots, with the whole pot won on every hit, the call lost on every miss and no extra betting, calling loses $27.57 on average. Hits bring in $48.29, misses cost $75.86, and the ratio is -0.276 per dollar called.
Odds say the same thing. Hitting is 3.14 : 1 against, and the pot lays 2 : 1.
Do not forget your own call. Dividing the bet by the pot without it gives 50.00%, not 33.33%, and would show a margin of -25.8557 points.
The price with implied odds
Break-even needs $114.18 of future winnings on top of the $300 already in the pot, which is 1.14 times the cost of your call.
Reaching 33.33% takes 9 outs on the flop, which hit 34.97%. With 6, the distance is 3 outs.
| Future winnings | Price with them | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0 | 33.33% | -9.19 points | -$27.57 | Fold |
| $50 | 28.57% | -4.43 points | -$15.49 | Fold |
| $100 | 25.00% | -0.86 points | -$3.42 | Fold |
| $250 | 18.18% | +5.96 points | +$32.79 | Call |
| $500 | 12.50% | +11.64 points | +$93.15 | Call |
The next card against the whole runout
Whether you count one card or two, the answer is a fold. The river figure is 24.14%, the next-card figure is 12.77%, and both are measured against 33.33%.
| Cards counted | Chance | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| By the river, two cards | 24.14% | -9.1890 points | -$27.57 | Fold |
| Next card only | 12.77% | -20.5674 points | -$61.70 | Fold |
Counts close to yours
Here are the neighbors of 6 outs, priced against the same 33.33%. One more out lifts your chance by about 3.70 points.
Other bet sizes for this draw
The same 6 outs on the flop meet a different price at each bet size. The table runs from the smallest bet to the largest, and the row for this page is marked.
Your draw can face a bet of up to 0.47 times the pot ($46.69 on a $100 pot) and still break even. 3 of the 12 sizes fall at or under that line.
| Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| quarter-pot | 16.67% | +7.48 points | Call |
| third-pot | 20.00% | +4.14 points | Call |
| two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | +1.92 points | Call |
| half-pot | 25.00% | -0.86 points | Fold |
| two-thirds-pot | 28.57% | -4.43 points | Fold |
| three-quarter-pot | 30.00% | -5.86 points | Fold |
| pot-size, this page | 33.33% | -9.19 points | Fold |
| 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | -11.57 points | Fold |
| 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | -13.36 points | Fold |
| 2x-pot | 40.00% | -15.86 points | Fold |
| 3x-pot | 42.86% | -18.71 points | Fold |
| 4x-pot | 44.44% | -20.30 points | Fold |
How this is computed
The chance rests on counting, not on a rule of thumb. Blank pairs: 820 out of 1,081; hit chance: 24.14%.
The numbers are a baseline rather than a prediction for one hand. The price is 33.33%, from $100 into $300, and the chance assumes a whole pot won on a hit, no more betting, 47 equally likely unseen cards, and no cards removed for the other player.
Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library.
Updated
Questions
Call or fold with 6 outs on the flop against a bet of the full pot?
Math says fold. The pot-size bet of $100 needs 33.33% equity, 6 outs on the flop give 24.14%, and the margin is -9.19 points. Assuming a whole pot won on a hit and no further bets, the call is worth -$27.57 on average.
What is the fewest outs that can call a pot-size bet on the flop?
Against 33.33%, the first count that works on the flop is 9, at 34.97%. At 8 the chance is 31.45%, too low. Compared with that threshold, your 6 outs are 3 below.
How many cards should you count when a pot-size bet arrives on the flop?
Count two cards, 24.14%, when the bet is the last money going in, and one card, 12.77%, when the next street brings another bet. At a price of 33.33%, either number leads to a fold.
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