Verdict
Fold
8 outs, flop, pot-size bet
- Chance to hit by the rivertwo cards to come31.45%
- Equity the call needs$100 into a pot of $30033.33%
- Margin over the priceyour chance minus the price-1.88 points
Chance against price
The price is 33.33%, the chance is 31.45%, and the call trails by 1.88 points. A thin gap, but on the side of folding.
Count an open-ended straight draw and you land on 8 outs. With 47 cards unseen, the next card helps 17.02% of the time.
Worked through on a $100 pot
- Pot before the bet$100
- Bet$100
- Cost to call$100
- Pot after your call$300
- You can win on a hit$200
- What a miss costs$100
- How often you hit31.45%
- Calling is worth, on average-$5.64
- Equity the call needs33.33%
- Margin, to four decimals-1.8810 points
- Outs that exactly reach the price8.53 outs
- Outs above the price-0.53 outs
Stay with simple rules: the whole pot on a hit, the call lost on a miss, no more money in. Under them calling loses $5.64 on average. The hit side averages $62.90, the miss side $68.55, and each dollar called returns -0.056.
As odds, 2.18 : 1 against hitting meets pot odds of 2 : 1.
Skipping your own call in the pot gives a price of 50.00% where 33.33% is correct, and a margin of -18.5476 points instead of -1.88 points.
What implied odds would have to do
Implied odds are the way to close the gap. You need $17.94 more on later streets after hitting, which is 0.18 times the call you make.
9 outs is the threshold against a pot-size bet on the flop, a chance of 34.97%. That is 1 more than your 8.
| Future winnings | Price with them | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0 | 33.33% | -1.88 points | -$5.64 | Fold |
| $50 | 28.57% | +2.88 points | +$10.08 | Call |
| $100 | 25.00% | +6.45 points | +$25.81 | Call |
| $250 | 18.18% | +13.27 points | +$72.99 | Call |
| $500 | 12.50% | +18.95 points | +$151.62 | Call |
Pricing one card at a time
Both views point the same way. By the river you hit 31.45%, on the next card 17.02%, and the price is 33.33%, so the fold holds whichever number applies.
| Cards counted | Chance | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| By the river, two cards | 31.45% | -1.8810 points | -$5.64 | Fold |
| Next card only | 17.02% | -16.3121 points | -$48.94 | Fold |
The call as outs change
Same bet, same street, different draws. The row for 8 outs is marked, and every out is worth about 3.52 points.
The draw across every bet size
How much does bet size matter? The price climbs from 16.67% to 44.44% across the list, while 8 outs stay at 31.45%.
Past 0.85 times the pot ($84.79 on a $100 pot) the price outruns your chance. Of the 12 sizes, 6 are calls for 8 outs on the flop.
| Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| quarter-pot | 16.67% | +14.79 points | Call |
| third-pot | 20.00% | +11.45 points | Call |
| two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | +9.23 points | Call |
| half-pot | 25.00% | +6.45 points | Call |
| two-thirds-pot | 28.57% | +2.88 points | Call |
| three-quarter-pot | 30.00% | +1.45 points | Call |
| pot-size, this page | 33.33% | -1.88 points | Fold |
| 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | -4.26 points | Fold |
| 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | -6.05 points | Fold |
| 2x-pot | 40.00% | -8.55 points | Fold |
| 3x-pot | 42.86% | -11.40 points | Fold |
| 4x-pot | 44.44% | -12.99 points | Fold |
How this is computed
The hit chance comes straight from combinations. Out of 1,081 pairs of unseen cards, 741 miss every out, so you hit 31.45% of the time.
These figures describe a clean spot. You pay the whole bet, which costs $100 of a $300 pot (33.33%), collect the whole pot on a hit, meet no more bets, and draw from 47 equally likely cards, with no adjustment for an opponent's hand.
Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library.
Updated
Questions
Call or fold with 8 outs on the flop against a bet of the full pot?
Verdict: fold. A pot-size bet asks for 33.33% and you have 31.45%, a margin of -1.88 points. For a $100 call into a $100 pot, with no later bets and the whole pot won on a hit, the average is -$5.64.
What count of outs clears the price of a pot-size bet on the flop?
To call a pot-size bet on the flop you want 9 outs or more. 9 reach 34.97% and 8 reach 31.45%, with 33.33% as the bar. Your 8 outs are 1 under.
Should you use the chance on the next card or by the river?
Count two cards, 31.45%, when the bet is the last money going in, and one card, 17.02%, when the next street brings another bet. At a price of 33.33%, either number leads to a fold.
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