Verdict
Call
8 outs, flop, third-pot bet
- Chance to hit by the rivertwo cards to come31.45%
- Equity the call needs$33.33 into a pot of $166.6720.00%
- Margin over the priceyour chance minus the price+11.45 points
Reading the verdict
31.45% against 20.00%: the draw beats the price by 11.45 points. On this flop against a third-pot bet, that is a comfortable call.
The usual home for 8 outs is an open-ended straight draw. One card from the 47 unseen ones completes it 17.02% of the time.
One hand, in dollars
- Starting pot$100
- Bet$33.33
- Chips you put in$33.33
- Total pot after calling$166.67
- What a hit wins$133.33
- You lose on a miss$33.33
- Your chance to hit31.45%
- Calling is worth, on average+$19.09
- Price of the call20.00%
- Unrounded margin+11.4524 points
- Outs at break-even4.91 outs
- Your outs minus break-even outs+3.09 outs
Price it in dollars, with no later bets: win the whole pot on a hit, lose the call on a miss. That averages $41.94 in and $22.85 out, so calling gains $19.09 on average at +0.573 per dollar called.
In odds, you face 2.18 : 1 against you and the pot pays 4 : 1.
Watch the pot you divide by. Leaving your call out turns 20.00% into 25.00%, and the margin into +6.4524 points. Dividing by the starting pot gives 33.33% and a margin of -1.8810 points, further from the truth.
What could go wrong before the call flips
5 outs is the line for a third-pot bet on the flop. Your 8 sit 3 outs above it, and the chance at the line is 20.35%.
Later betting can cut into the call. You may surrender $60.69, or 1.82 times your call, after a hit and still break even.
| Given back later | Price with it | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0 | 20.00% | +11.45 points | +$19.09 | Call |
| $10 | 21.28% | +10.18 points | +$15.94 | Call |
| $25 | 23.53% | +7.92 points | +$11.22 | Call |
| $50 | 28.57% | +2.88 points | +$3.36 | Call |
| $100 | 50.00% | -18.55 points | -$12.37 | Fold |
By the river or next card
31.45% for two cards says call, while 17.02% for one card says fold, both against 20.00%. If you will have to pay again on the turn, trust the one-card number.
| Cards counted | Chance | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| By the river, two cards | 31.45% | +11.4524 points | +$19.09 | Call |
| Next card only | 17.02% | -2.9787 points | -$4.96 | Fold |
Neighbors of this draw
Same bet, same street, different draws. The row for 8 outs is marked, and every out is worth about 3.52 points.
The draw across every bet size
Look down the margin column to see where the draw stops paying. Every row uses 8 outs on the flop and a bet of a different size.
8 outs stop paying at 0.85 times the pot ($84.79 on a $100 pot). The call holds up against 6 of the 12 bet sizes.
| Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| quarter-pot | 16.67% | +14.79 points | Call |
| third-pot, this page | 20.00% | +11.45 points | Call |
| two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | +9.23 points | Call |
| half-pot | 25.00% | +6.45 points | Call |
| two-thirds-pot | 28.57% | +2.88 points | Call |
| three-quarter-pot | 30.00% | +1.45 points | Call |
| pot-size | 33.33% | -1.88 points | Fold |
| 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | -4.26 points | Fold |
| 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | -6.05 points | Fold |
| 2x-pot | 40.00% | -8.55 points | Fold |
| 3x-pot | 42.86% | -11.40 points | Fold |
| 4x-pot | 44.44% | -12.99 points | Fold |
How this is computed
Here is how 31.45% was found. Deal every pair of the 47 unseen cards: 741 of 1,081 pairs contain no out.
Keep the assumptions in view: a full call ($33.33 into $166.67, or 20.00%), the whole pot on a hit, no more betting, and 47 unseen cards that are equally likely. The math does not know what the other player holds.
Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library.
Updated
Questions
What is the right play with 8 outs when a third-pot bet comes on the flop?
The verdict is call. Your chance is 31.45% and the price is 20.00%, which leaves +11.45 points. On a $100 pot with a $33.33 bet, calling is worth +$19.09 on average if the whole pot is won on a hit and nothing more is bet.
What is the minimum number of outs for a third-pot bet on the flop?
You need at least 5 outs against a third-pot bet on the flop. That count hits 20.35% against 20.00% needed, and 4 falls short at 16.47%. With 8 you are 3 past the minimum.
Does it matter whether you count one card or two against a third-pot bet?
Match the number to the betting. All-in or checked down: 31.45%. Facing another bet on the turn: 17.02%. The price is 20.00%, so the verdicts are call and fold in that order.
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