Verdict
Call
10 outs, flop, third-pot bet
- Chance to hit by the rivertwo cards to come38.39%
- Equity the call needs$33.33 into a pot of $166.6720.00%
- Margin over the priceyour chance minus the price+18.39 points
Reading the verdict
With 10 outs on the flop you hit 38.39% of the time by the river, and a third-pot bet only asks for 20.00%. That 18.39-point cushion makes this a clear call.
Few single draws land on exactly 10 outs, so add up each way to improve and check the total. One card hits 21.28% of the time here.
A $100 pot, step by step
- The pot before betting$100
- The bet$33.33
- Chips you put in$33.33
- Final pot if you call$166.67
- Gain on a hit$133.33
- What a miss costs$33.33
- Your chance to hit38.39%
- Calling is worth, on average+$30.65
- Equity the call needs20.00%
- Unrounded margin+18.3904 points
- Outs at break-even4.91 outs
- Outs to spare, exactly+5.09 outs
Price it in dollars, with no later bets: win the whole pot on a hit, lose the call on a miss. That averages $51.19 in and $20.54 out, so calling gains $30.65 on average at +0.920 per dollar called.
The same comparison in odds: the odds against hitting are 1.6 : 1, and the pot lays 4 : 1 on a call.
Watch the pot you divide by. Leaving your call out turns 20.00% into 25.00%, and the margin into +13.3904 points. Dividing by the starting pot gives 33.33% and a margin of +5.0570 points, further from the truth.
Your cushion over the price
The threshold is 5 outs, a chance of 20.35%. With 10 in hand you are 5 outs clear of it.
Reverse implied odds are the risk here. A hit that costs you $79.84 later, 2.40 times your call, is where the call stops being worth it.
| Given back later | Price with it | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0 | 20.00% | +18.39 points | +$30.65 | Call |
| $10 | 21.28% | +17.11 points | +$26.81 | Call |
| $25 | 23.53% | +14.86 points | +$21.05 | Call |
| $50 | 28.57% | +9.82 points | +$11.46 | Call |
| $100 | 50.00% | -11.61 points | -$7.74 | Fold |
Two cards to come, or just one
Use either number and the verdict is a call. The next card is 21.28%, the full runout is 38.39%, and the price is 20.00%.
| Cards counted | Chance | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| By the river, two cards | 38.39% | +18.3904 points | +$30.65 | Call |
| Next card only | 21.28% | +1.2766 points | +$2.13 | Call |
Neighbors of this draw
Draws close to yours, on the same street and against the same bet: the price is fixed at 20.00%, and each out moves the chance about 3.33 points.
The same draw against other bet sizes
How much does bet size matter? The price climbs from 16.67% to 44.44% across the list, while 10 outs stay at 38.39%.
A bet larger than 1.65 times the pot ($165.34 on a $100 pot) asks for more than 38.39%. For this draw, 9 of the 12 sizes are calls.
| Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| quarter-pot | 16.67% | +21.72 points | Call |
| third-pot, this page | 20.00% | +18.39 points | Call |
| two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | +16.17 points | Call |
| half-pot | 25.00% | +13.39 points | Call |
| two-thirds-pot | 28.57% | +9.82 points | Call |
| three-quarter-pot | 30.00% | +8.39 points | Call |
| pot-size | 33.33% | +5.06 points | Call |
| 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | +2.68 points | Call |
| 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | +0.89 points | Call |
| 2x-pot | 40.00% | -1.61 points | Fold |
| 3x-pot | 42.86% | -4.47 points | Fold |
| 4x-pot | 44.44% | -6.05 points | Fold |
How this is computed
The number is exact rather than estimated. 666 of the 1,081 pairs that could come are blanks, which leaves 38.39% for a hit.
What is held fixed: the call equals the bet, so the price is $33.33 / $166.67 = 20.00%; the pot is won whole on a hit; there is no further betting; and each of the 47 unseen cards is as likely as any other. Opponent cards are not removed.
Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library.
Updated
Questions
Should you call a third-pot bet with 10 outs on the flop?
The verdict is call. Your chance is 38.39% and the price is 20.00%, which leaves +18.39 points. On a $100 pot with a $33.33 bet, calling is worth +$30.65 on average if the whole pot is won on a hit and nothing more is bet.
What is the fewest outs that can call a third-pot bet on the flop?
To call a third-pot bet on the flop you want 5 outs or more. 5 reach 20.35% and 4 reach 16.47%, with 20.00% as the bar. Your 10 outs are 5 over.
Should you use the chance on the next card or by the river?
The river figure of 38.39% assumes no further betting; the next-card figure of 21.28% assumes you pay again on the turn. Against 20.00%, both say call, so you can use either.
Related pages
Check your own hands against the numbers
Bring a hand you played and we will work through the price, the chance to hit and the decision together.
Book a session