44
60.00%
Wins 57.87%, ties 4.26%
54s
40.00%
Wins 37.87%, ties 4.26%
44 against 54s: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 57.872 | 4.259 | 37.869 | 60.002 |
| 54s | 37.869 | 4.259 | 57.872 | 39.998 |
The matchup pits a pocket pair against a suited hand. The non-pair hand shares a rank with the pair, so two of its outs for pairing are blocked by the pair itself.
That is a modest edge, the kind that shows up over many hands and is easy to miss in one. Ties are part of the picture: 4.26% of boards end in a split pot, and each side counts that as half a win.
The hand ranking puts 44 at 48 and 54s at 136 out of 169 starting hands.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 11,891,000 | 875,000 | 7,781,000 |
| 54s | 7,781,000 | 875,000 | 11,891,000 |
Exact total: 12 deals times 1,712,304 boards. The other three counts come from the five-decimal percentages and are rounded to the nearest thousand, so read them as approximate.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 1.500 | 1.728 | 2.641 | 0.667 |
| 54s | 0.667 | 2.641 | 1.728 | 1.500 |
The final column gives the least the pot must offer for each unit called for a call to break even at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
44 prefers paired flops, where it holds 64.08%, and likes low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) least, where it holds 45.52%. 54s is ahead on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower), even though it trails 44 when every flop is counted.
| Flop | Share of flops | 44 wins | Ties | 54s wins | 44 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 25.786 | 62.582 | 2.629 | 34.789 | 63.897 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 4.995 | 42.180 | 6.677 | 51.143 | 45.518 |
| Two-tone | 46.236 | 56.550 | 3.076 | 40.374 | 58.088 |
| Monotone | 5.152 | 55.409 | 4.396 | 40.195 | 57.607 |
| Paired | 17.831 | 59.598 | 8.966 | 31.436 | 64.081 |
Rainbow flops have three suits, two-tone flops repeat one suit, monotone flops are all one suit, and paired flops repeat a rank.
Compared with a random hand
The table below sets each hand against its own random-hand baseline: a change of +2.98 points for 44, from 57.02%, and -1.45 for 54s, from 41.45%.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44, all flops | 60.002 | 57.023 | +2.979 | 1.05224 |
| 44, rainbow, ten or higher | 63.897 | 57.023 | +6.874 | 1.12055 |
| 44, rainbow, nine or lower | 45.518 | 57.023 | -11.505 | 0.79824 |
| 44, two-tone | 58.088 | 57.023 | +1.065 | 1.01868 |
| 44, monotone | 57.607 | 57.023 | +0.584 | 1.01024 |
| 44, paired | 64.081 | 57.023 | +7.058 | 1.12377 |
| 54s, all flops | 39.998 | 41.453 | -1.455 | 0.96490 |
| 54s, rainbow, ten or higher | 36.103 | 41.453 | -5.350 | 0.87094 |
| 54s, rainbow, nine or lower | 54.482 | 41.453 | +13.029 | 1.31431 |
| 54s, two-tone | 41.912 | 41.453 | +0.459 | 1.01107 |
| 54s, monotone | 42.393 | 41.453 | +0.940 | 1.02268 |
| 54s, paired | 35.919 | 41.453 | -5.534 | 0.86650 |
Does a shared suit matter?
The hands cannot hold a suit in common here, which leaves a single case and a single number: 60.00% for 44.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | 44 wins | Ties | 54s wins | 44 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 0 | 0.00 | not possible | not possible | not possible | not possible |
| No shared suit | 12 | 100.00 | 57.872 | 4.259 | 37.869 | 60.002 |
How often this matchup comes up
The class pair covers 12 combinations of specific cards in a fixed seat order, 0.0007% of 1,624,350, and 24 (0.0015%) in either order.
A worked example
Put $100 each into a $200 pot and deal every board once: 44 averages $120.00 back, ahead of its $100 by $20.00, while 54s averages $80.00, short of its $100 by $20.00.
A thousand deals look like this: 44 takes 579, 54s takes 379, 42 are ties.
The same matchup from the other side
If you came looking for 54s against 44, the numbers are the same with the hands swapped: 40.00% and 60.00%.
Keep exploring
Try 4s4h against 5d4d in the calculator: the hands share no suit, and every card can be changed. The links after it are the closest matchups in the ranking.
How this was computed
We counted every case. Each suit pattern of the 12 specific 44 against 54s deals meets all 1,712,304 boards, and the better five-card hand wins; a split pot is half a win each. The flop table reads each board under all ten of its three-card flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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