98s
63.12%
Wins 61.76%, ties 2.72%
54s
36.88%
Wins 35.52%, ties 2.72%
98s against 54s: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 98s | 61.755 | 2.719 | 35.526 | 63.115 |
| 54s | 35.526 | 2.719 | 61.755 | 36.885 |
98s and 54s are both suited hands. Neither hand shares a rank with the other, so this is a contest of high cards, connection and suits.
That is a modest edge, the kind that shows up over many hands and is easy to miss in one. Ties are 2.72% of the outcomes here; each tied board gives both hands half the pot.
The hand ranking puts 98s at 83 and 54s at 136 out of 169 starting hands.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| 98s | 16,919,000 | 745,000 | 9,733,000 |
| 54s | 9,733,000 | 745,000 | 16,919,000 |
The board total is exact, 16 deals at 1,712,304 boards each. Won, tied and lost counts are rounded to the nearest thousand from the five-decimal percentages.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 98s | 1.711 | 1.619 | 2.815 | 0.584 |
| 54s | 0.584 | 2.815 | 1.619 | 1.711 |
The last column is the break-even price: the pot odds a call needs to offer, as a ratio of pot to call.
Who is ahead on which flops
By flop texture, 98s' equity runs from 57.50% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) up to 65.18% on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better. 98s stays ahead on all five textures.
| Flop | Share of flops | 98s wins | Ties | 54s wins | 98s equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 25.844 | 64.167 | 2.023 | 33.810 | 65.178 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 5.065 | 57.203 | 0.599 | 42.198 | 57.502 |
| Two-tone | 46.727 | 62.096 | 1.606 | 36.298 | 62.899 |
| Monotone | 5.273 | 58.487 | 4.400 | 37.113 | 60.687 |
| Paired | 17.091 | 59.535 | 6.923 | 33.542 | 62.996 |
Flop types: rainbow means three different suits, two-tone means one suit twice, monotone means one suit three times, paired means a repeated rank.
Compared with a random hand
Relative to a random opponent, 98s changes by +12.32 points (baseline 50.80%) and 54s by -4.57 points (baseline 41.45%).
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 98s, all flops | 63.115 | 50.801 | +12.314 | 1.24240 |
| 98s, rainbow, ten or higher | 65.178 | 50.801 | +14.377 | 1.28301 |
| 98s, rainbow, nine or lower | 57.502 | 50.801 | +6.701 | 1.13191 |
| 98s, two-tone | 62.899 | 50.801 | +12.098 | 1.23814 |
| 98s, monotone | 60.687 | 50.801 | +9.886 | 1.19460 |
| 98s, paired | 62.996 | 50.801 | +12.195 | 1.24005 |
| 54s, all flops | 36.885 | 41.453 | -4.568 | 0.88980 |
| 54s, rainbow, ten or higher | 34.822 | 41.453 | -6.631 | 0.84004 |
| 54s, rainbow, nine or lower | 42.498 | 41.453 | +1.045 | 1.02521 |
| 54s, two-tone | 37.101 | 41.453 | -4.352 | 0.89501 |
| 54s, monotone | 39.313 | 41.453 | -2.140 | 0.94838 |
| 54s, paired | 37.004 | 41.453 | -4.449 | 0.89267 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Looking only at deals where the hands share a suit, 98s has 65.47%; looking only at deals where they do not, 62.33%. 98s does better with a shared suit, by 3.14 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | 98s wins | Ties | 54s wins | 98s equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 4 | 25.00 | 64.007 | 2.930 | 33.063 | 65.472 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 75.00 | 61.005 | 2.648 | 36.347 | 62.329 |
How often this matchup comes up
Exactly 16 specific deals fit this matchup in one seat order, which is 0.0010% of 1,624,350; both orders together give 32, or 0.0020%.
A worked example
Try it with money: two players each put in $100 and the whole board runs out every possible way. 98s averages $126.24 from the $200, up $26.24; 54s averages $73.76, down $26.24.
Run 1,000 deals and the tally comes out near 618 for 98s, 355 for 54s and 27 ties.
The same matchup from the other side
Read it from the other side: 54s against 98s is the same matchup with the numbers swapped, so 54s holds 36.88% and 98s holds 63.12%. That address sends you back to this page.
Keep exploring
Open the calculator with 9s8s against 5h4h already entered, a deal with no shared suit, and change any card to try your own hand. The matchups after it each swap one hand for a nearby one in the ranking.
How this was computed
We counted every case. Each suit pattern of the 16 specific 98s against 54s deals meets all 1,712,304 boards, and the better five-card hand wins; a split pot is half a win each. The flop table reads each board under all ten of its three-card flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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