99
80.32%
Wins 79.98%, ties 0.66%
75s
19.68%
Wins 19.36%, ties 0.66%
99 against 75s: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 79.984 | 0.662 | 19.354 | 80.315 |
| 75s | 19.354 | 0.662 | 79.984 | 19.685 |
99, a pocket pair, plays 75s, a suited hand. A pair against two lower cards is a lopsided matchup: the pair is ahead and the other hand has no overcard to catch.
That is a heavy lead: 75s needs the board to help it on most runouts and still falls behind far more often than not. Split pots make up 0.66% of the boards, and both equity figures count them as half a win each.
By strength against a random hand, 99 holds place 6 of 169 and 75s holds place 124.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 32,870,000 | 272,000 | 7,954,000 |
| 75s | 7,954,000 | 272,000 | 32,870,000 |
24 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards gives the exact total. The won, tied and lost counts are approximations from the five-decimal percentages, rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 4.080 | 1.250 | 5.167 | 0.245 |
| 75s | 0.245 | 5.167 | 1.250 | 4.080 |
The last column is the break-even price: the pot odds a call needs to offer, as a ratio of pot to call.
Who is ahead on which flops
By flop texture, 99's equity runs from 68.39% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) up to 84.79% on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better. 99 stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.
| Flop | Share of flops | 99 wins | Ties | 75s wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 25.844 | 84.594 | 0.394 | 15.012 | 84.791 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 5.065 | 68.105 | 0.567 | 31.328 | 68.389 |
| Two-tone | 46.545 | 78.326 | 0.397 | 21.277 | 78.524 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 73.462 | 2.488 | 24.050 | 74.706 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 82.997 | 1.250 | 15.753 | 83.622 |
A rainbow flop shows three suits, a two-tone flop repeats one suit, a monotone flop is a single suit, and a paired flop repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Relative to a random opponent, 99 changes by +8.26 points (baseline 72.06%) and 75s by -24.00 points (baseline 43.68%).
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99, all flops | 80.315 | 72.057 | +8.258 | 1.11460 |
| 99, rainbow, ten or higher | 84.791 | 72.057 | +12.734 | 1.17672 |
| 99, rainbow, nine or lower | 68.389 | 72.057 | -3.668 | 0.94910 |
| 99, two-tone | 78.524 | 72.057 | +6.467 | 1.08975 |
| 99, monotone | 74.706 | 72.057 | +2.649 | 1.03676 |
| 99, paired | 83.622 | 72.057 | +11.565 | 1.16050 |
| 75s, all flops | 19.685 | 43.676 | -23.991 | 0.45071 |
| 75s, rainbow, ten or higher | 15.209 | 43.676 | -28.467 | 0.34822 |
| 75s, rainbow, nine or lower | 31.611 | 43.676 | -12.065 | 0.72376 |
| 75s, two-tone | 21.476 | 43.676 | -22.200 | 0.49171 |
| 75s, monotone | 25.294 | 43.676 | -18.382 | 0.57913 |
| 75s, paired | 16.378 | 43.676 | -27.298 | 0.37499 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Two kinds of deal exist here. In 12 of them the hands share a suit and 99 holds 80.89%. In 12 they do not, and it holds 79.74%. 99 does better with a shared suit, by 1.15 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | 99 wins | Ties | 75s wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 50.00 | 80.537 | 0.705 | 18.758 | 80.889 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 50.00 | 79.432 | 0.618 | 19.950 | 79.741 |
How often this matchup comes up
99 against 75s is made up of 24 specific-card matchups in one seat order, 0.0015% of the 1,624,350 ordered deals, and 48 counting both seat orders, 0.0030%.
A worked example
Try it with money: two players each put in $100 and the whole board runs out every possible way. 99 averages $160.64 from the $200, up $60.64; 75s averages $39.36, down $60.64.
In 1,000 deals of exactly this matchup, expect about 800 won outright by 99, about 193 won outright by 75s and about 7 split.
The same matchup from the other side
The mirror image, 75s against 99, is 19.68% to 80.32%, and its address redirects to this page.
Keep exploring
Open the calculator with 9s9h against 7d5d already entered, a deal with no shared suit, and change any card to try your own hand. The matchups after it each swap one hand for a nearby one in the ranking.
How this was computed
The figures are counted, not estimated: 1,712,304 boards for every suit pattern of the 24 specific deals, with both seven-card hands compared each time. Equity gives half a win for a tie. For the flop rows, a board is counted once under each of the ten flops inside it.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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