99
78.86%
Wins 78.53%, ties 0.66%
65s
21.14%
Wins 20.81%, ties 0.66%
99 against 65s: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 78.530 | 0.658 | 20.812 | 78.859 |
| 65s | 20.812 | 0.658 | 78.530 | 21.141 |
The matchup pits a pocket pair against a suited hand. The pair outranks both of the other hand's cards, which is why the pair is a strong favorite.
That is a clear edge, 78.86% to 21.14%, but 65s still wins often enough that one hand proves nothing. Ties are 0.66% of the outcomes here; each tied board gives both hands half the pot.
The hand ranking puts 99 at 6 and 65s at 128 out of 169 starting hands.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 32,272,000 | 270,000 | 8,553,000 |
| 65s | 8,553,000 | 270,000 | 32,272,000 |
24 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards gives the exact total. The won, tied and lost counts are approximations from the five-decimal percentages, rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 3.730 | 1.273 | 4.805 | 0.268 |
| 65s | 0.268 | 4.805 | 1.273 | 3.730 |
The final column gives the least the pot must offer for each unit called for a call to break even at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
99 prefers rainbow flops topped by a ten or better, where it holds 83.74%, and likes low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) least, where it holds 63.60%. 99 stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.
| Flop | Share of flops | 99 wins | Ties | 65s wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 25.844 | 83.553 | 0.364 | 16.083 | 83.735 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 5.065 | 63.257 | 0.682 | 36.061 | 63.598 |
| Two-tone | 46.545 | 76.794 | 0.393 | 22.813 | 76.990 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 72.336 | 2.502 | 25.162 | 73.587 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 82.027 | 1.250 | 16.723 | 82.652 |
Read the flop types this way: rainbow has three suits, two-tone has two cards of one suit, monotone has three, and paired repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
The table below sets each hand against its own random-hand baseline: a change of +6.80 points for 99, from 72.06%, and -21.99 for 65s, from 43.13%.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99, all flops | 78.859 | 72.057 | +6.802 | 1.09440 |
| 99, rainbow, ten or higher | 83.735 | 72.057 | +11.678 | 1.16207 |
| 99, rainbow, nine or lower | 63.598 | 72.057 | -8.459 | 0.88261 |
| 99, two-tone | 76.990 | 72.057 | +4.933 | 1.06846 |
| 99, monotone | 73.587 | 72.057 | +1.530 | 1.02123 |
| 99, paired | 82.652 | 72.057 | +10.595 | 1.14704 |
| 65s, all flops | 21.141 | 43.133 | -21.992 | 0.49014 |
| 65s, rainbow, ten or higher | 16.265 | 43.133 | -26.868 | 0.37709 |
| 65s, rainbow, nine or lower | 36.402 | 43.133 | -6.731 | 0.84395 |
| 65s, two-tone | 23.010 | 43.133 | -20.123 | 0.53347 |
| 65s, monotone | 26.413 | 43.133 | -16.720 | 0.61236 |
| 65s, paired | 17.348 | 43.133 | -25.785 | 0.40220 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Does suit overlap move the numbers? 99 has 79.42% when the hands share a suit and 78.30% when they do not. 99 does better with a shared suit, by 1.12 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | 99 wins | Ties | 65s wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 50.00 | 79.066 | 0.702 | 20.232 | 79.417 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 50.00 | 77.994 | 0.615 | 21.391 | 78.302 |
How often this matchup comes up
How often does it happen? 24 of the 1,624,350 ordered deals (0.0015%) are 99 against 65s, and 48 (0.0030%) if either hand may sit in either seat.
A worked example
Worked example: both players commit $100, so $200 sits in the middle. Over every board, 99's average share is $157.72 (a gain of $57.72) and 65s' is $42.28 (a loss of $57.72).
Think in thousands: about 785 of 1,000 go to 99, about 208 go to 65s, and about 7 are chopped.
The same matchup from the other side
65s against 99 adds nothing new: it is 21.14% for 65s and 78.86% for 99, the same figures reversed.
Keep exploring
9s9h against 6d5d is a ready-made deal for the calculator, with no suit in common between the hands. The neighboring matchups below replace one hand with another of similar strength.
How this was computed
The figures are counted, not estimated: 1,712,304 boards for every suit pattern of the 24 specific deals, with both seven-card hands compared each time. Equity gives half a win for a tie. For the flop rows, a board is counted once under each of the ten flops inside it.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
Bring your own hands to a session
Review the spots you actually play against these numbers in a Game Assessment, and leave with a one-page written plan.
Book a session