99
78.10%
Wins 77.75%, ties 0.70%
54s
21.90%
Wins 21.55%, ties 0.70%
99 against 54s: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 77.747 | 0.702 | 21.551 | 78.098 |
| 54s | 21.551 | 0.702 | 77.747 | 21.902 |
99 is a pocket pair and 54s is a suited hand. Here a pair faces two cards that are both smaller, so the other hand needs to pair up and still be behind.
A lead of 56.20 points is large but not decisive: 54s still takes about 216 of every 1,000 deals. 0.70% of boards are ties, so the equity of each hand is its win rate plus half of that.
Place 6 of 169 belongs to 99 and place 136 belongs to 54s in the ranking against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 31,950,000 | 288,000 | 8,856,000 |
| 54s | 8,856,000 | 288,000 | 31,950,000 |
The total is exact: 24 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards. The three counts are approximate, worked out from the percentages to five decimals and rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 3.566 | 1.286 | 4.640 | 0.280 |
| 54s | 0.280 | 4.640 | 1.286 | 3.566 |
The last column is the break-even price: the pot odds a call needs to offer, as a ratio of pot to call.
Who is ahead on which flops
Split by what the flop looks like, 99 peaks at 82.39% on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better and bottoms out at 65.56% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower). 99 stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.
| Flop | Share of flops | 99 wins | Ties | 54s wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 25.844 | 82.193 | 0.399 | 17.408 | 82.393 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 5.065 | 65.142 | 0.838 | 34.020 | 65.561 |
| Two-tone | 46.545 | 76.034 | 0.443 | 23.523 | 76.255 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 71.833 | 2.575 | 25.592 | 73.120 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 81.180 | 1.250 | 17.570 | 81.805 |
Flop types: rainbow means three different suits, two-tone means one suit twice, monotone means one suit three times, paired means a repeated rank.
Compared with a random hand
Start from the random-hand figures, 72.06% for 99 and 41.45% for 54s. This opponent changes them by +6.04 and -19.55 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99, all flops | 78.098 | 72.057 | +6.041 | 1.08384 |
| 99, rainbow, ten or higher | 82.393 | 72.057 | +10.336 | 1.14344 |
| 99, rainbow, nine or lower | 65.561 | 72.057 | -6.496 | 0.90985 |
| 99, two-tone | 76.255 | 72.057 | +4.198 | 1.05826 |
| 99, monotone | 73.120 | 72.057 | +1.063 | 1.01475 |
| 99, paired | 81.805 | 72.057 | +9.748 | 1.13528 |
| 54s, all flops | 21.902 | 41.453 | -19.551 | 0.52836 |
| 54s, rainbow, ten or higher | 17.607 | 41.453 | -23.846 | 0.42475 |
| 54s, rainbow, nine or lower | 34.439 | 41.453 | -7.014 | 0.83080 |
| 54s, two-tone | 23.745 | 41.453 | -17.708 | 0.57282 |
| 54s, monotone | 26.880 | 41.453 | -14.573 | 0.64845 |
| 54s, paired | 18.195 | 41.453 | -23.258 | 0.43893 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Does suit overlap move the numbers? 99 has 78.66% when the hands share a suit and 77.54% when they do not. 99 does better with a shared suit, by 1.12 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | 99 wins | Ties | 54s wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 50.00 | 78.289 | 0.745 | 20.966 | 78.662 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 50.00 | 77.205 | 0.659 | 22.136 | 77.535 |
How often this matchup comes up
How often does it happen? 24 of the 1,624,350 ordered deals (0.0015%) are 99 against 54s, and 48 (0.0030%) if either hand may sit in either seat.
A worked example
Take a $200 pot built from $100 each. 99's equity of 78.10% is worth $156.20, a $56.20 edge, and 54s' 21.90% is worth $43.80, which is $56.20 under its stake.
Think in thousands: about 777 of 1,000 go to 99, about 216 go to 54s, and about 7 are chopped.
The same matchup from the other side
54s against 99 adds nothing new: it is 21.90% for 54s and 78.10% for 99, the same figures reversed.
Keep exploring
Open the calculator with 9s9h against 5d4d already entered, a deal with no shared suit, and change any card to try your own hand. The matchups after it each swap one hand for a nearby one in the ranking.
How this was computed
Method: exact enumeration. The 24 specific deals are grouped by suit pattern, each is run against all 1,712,304 boards, and both seven-card hands are scored. Equity adds half of every tie, and flop textures are tallied over the ten flops inside each board.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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