99
81.72%
Wins 81.41%, ties 0.62%
86s
18.28%
Wins 17.97%, ties 0.62%
99 against 86s: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 81.405 | 0.619 | 17.976 | 81.715 |
| 86s | 17.976 | 0.619 | 81.405 | 18.285 |
99 and 86s are a pocket pair and a suited hand, in that order. Here a pair faces two cards that are both smaller, so the other hand needs to pair up and still be behind.
This is one of the lopsided matchups: 86s wins only 17.97% of the boards outright. Of every 100 boards, about 0.62 are split pots, and the equity figures already include them.
99 ranks number 6 of 169 starting hands, and 86s ranks number 110, by equity against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 33,454,000 | 254,000 | 7,387,000 |
| 86s | 7,387,000 | 254,000 | 33,454,000 |
The total is exact: 24 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards. The three counts are approximate, worked out from the percentages to five decimals and rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 4.469 | 1.228 | 5.563 | 0.224 |
| 86s | 0.224 | 5.563 | 1.228 | 4.469 |
In the last column, a pot-to-call ratio at or above the figure makes a call break even or better at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
Across the five flop textures 99's equity moves by 14.00 points, from 71.98% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) to 85.98% on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better. 99 stays ahead on all five textures.
| Flop | Share of flops | 99 wins | Ties | 86s wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 25.844 | 85.807 | 0.341 | 13.852 | 85.978 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 5.065 | 71.725 | 0.505 | 27.770 | 71.977 |
| Two-tone | 46.545 | 79.798 | 0.347 | 19.855 | 79.972 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 74.474 | 2.443 | 23.083 | 75.696 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 84.069 | 1.250 | 14.681 | 84.694 |
Read the flop types this way: rainbow has three suits, two-tone has two cards of one suit, monotone has three, and paired repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Compared with a random opponent, this matchup shifts 99 from 72.06% by +9.66 points and 86s from 46.24% by -27.96 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99, all flops | 81.715 | 72.057 | +9.658 | 1.13403 |
| 99, rainbow, ten or higher | 85.978 | 72.057 | +13.921 | 1.19319 |
| 99, rainbow, nine or lower | 71.977 | 72.057 | -0.080 | 0.99889 |
| 99, two-tone | 79.972 | 72.057 | +7.915 | 1.10984 |
| 99, monotone | 75.696 | 72.057 | +3.639 | 1.05050 |
| 99, paired | 84.694 | 72.057 | +12.637 | 1.17538 |
| 86s, all flops | 18.285 | 46.243 | -27.958 | 0.39541 |
| 86s, rainbow, ten or higher | 14.022 | 46.243 | -32.221 | 0.30322 |
| 86s, rainbow, nine or lower | 28.023 | 46.243 | -18.220 | 0.60599 |
| 86s, two-tone | 20.028 | 46.243 | -26.215 | 0.43310 |
| 86s, monotone | 24.304 | 46.243 | -21.939 | 0.52557 |
| 86s, paired | 15.306 | 46.243 | -30.937 | 0.33099 |
Does a shared suit matter?
The suit split reads 82.29% for 99 with a shared suit and 81.14% without one. 99 does better with a shared suit, by 1.15 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | 99 wins | Ties | 86s wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 50.00 | 81.958 | 0.661 | 17.381 | 82.289 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 50.00 | 80.852 | 0.577 | 18.571 | 81.140 |
How often this matchup comes up
This page stands for 24 specific-card matchups (0.0015% of 1,624,350 ordered deals), or 48 once you count the seats both ways (0.0030%).
A worked example
A $100 all-in from each player makes a $200 pot, and the exact equity says 99 gets $163.44 of it on average and 86s gets $36.56.
Run 1,000 deals and the tally comes out near 814 for 99, 180 for 86s and 6 ties.
The same matchup from the other side
The mirror image, 86s against 99, is 18.28% to 81.72%, and its address redirects to this page.
Keep exploring
Open the calculator with 9s9h against 8d6d already entered, a deal with no shared suit, and change any card to try your own hand. The matchups after it each swap one hand for a nearby one in the ranking.
How this was computed
We counted every case. Each suit pattern of the 24 specific 99 against 86s deals meets all 1,712,304 boards, and the better five-card hand wins; a split pot is half a win each. The flop table reads each board under all ten of its three-card flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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