99
67.59%
Wins 67.40%, ties 0.38%
A8s
32.41%
Wins 32.22%, ties 0.38%
99 against A8s: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 67.395 | 0.384 | 32.221 | 67.587 |
| A8s | 32.221 | 0.384 | 67.395 | 32.413 |
The matchup pits a pocket pair against a suited hand. The pair is ahead of one card and behind the other, so the board decides how that plays out.
A lead of 35.18 points is large but not decisive: A8s still takes about 322 of every 1,000 deals. 0.38% of boards are ties, so the equity of each hand is its win rate plus half of that.
99 ranks number 6 of 169 starting hands, and A8s ranks number 21, by equity against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 27,696,000 | 158,000 | 13,241,000 |
| A8s | 13,241,000 | 158,000 | 27,696,000 |
The board total is exact, 24 deals at 1,712,304 boards each. Won, tied and lost counts are rounded to the nearest thousand from the five-decimal percentages.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 2.085 | 1.484 | 3.104 | 0.480 |
| A8s | 0.480 | 3.104 | 1.484 | 2.085 |
In the last column, a pot-to-call ratio at or above the figure makes a call break even or better at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
Break the boards down by their first three cards and 99 is strongest on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) (80.55%) and weakest on monotone flops (63.20%). 99 stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.
| Flop | Share of flops | 99 wins | Ties | A8s wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 25.220 | 66.602 | 0.185 | 33.213 | 66.695 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 5.689 | 80.194 | 0.709 | 19.097 | 80.548 |
| Two-tone | 46.545 | 65.841 | 0.261 | 33.898 | 65.971 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 62.015 | 2.367 | 35.618 | 63.198 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 70.140 | 0.301 | 29.559 | 70.291 |
A rainbow flop shows three suits, a two-tone flop repeats one suit, a monotone flop is a single suit, and a paired flop repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Against one random hand instead, 99 holds 72.06% and A8s holds 61.94%. Facing each other changes that by -4.47 points for 99 and -29.53 points for A8s.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99, all flops | 67.587 | 72.057 | -4.470 | 0.93797 |
| 99, rainbow, ten or higher | 66.695 | 72.057 | -5.362 | 0.92559 |
| 99, rainbow, nine or lower | 80.548 | 72.057 | +8.491 | 1.11784 |
| 99, two-tone | 65.971 | 72.057 | -6.086 | 0.91554 |
| 99, monotone | 63.198 | 72.057 | -8.859 | 0.87706 |
| 99, paired | 70.291 | 72.057 | -1.766 | 0.97549 |
| A8s, all flops | 32.413 | 61.944 | -29.531 | 0.52326 |
| A8s, rainbow, ten or higher | 33.305 | 61.944 | -28.639 | 0.53766 |
| A8s, rainbow, nine or lower | 19.452 | 61.944 | -42.492 | 0.31403 |
| A8s, two-tone | 34.029 | 61.944 | -27.915 | 0.54935 |
| A8s, monotone | 36.802 | 61.944 | -25.142 | 0.59412 |
| A8s, paired | 29.709 | 61.944 | -32.235 | 0.47961 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Split by suits, the deals give 99 67.86% when the hands overlap in a suit and 67.31% when they do not. 99 does better with a shared suit, by 0.55 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | 99 wins | Ties | A8s wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 50.00 | 67.650 | 0.426 | 31.924 | 67.863 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 50.00 | 67.141 | 0.342 | 32.517 | 67.312 |
How often this matchup comes up
The class pair covers 24 combinations of specific cards in a fixed seat order, 0.0015% of 1,624,350, and 48 (0.0030%) in either order.
A worked example
A $100 all-in from each player makes a $200 pot, and the exact equity says 99 gets $135.18 of it on average and A8s gets $64.82.
Per 1,000 deals: 99 wins about 674, A8s wins about 322, and about 4 end in a split pot.
The same matchup from the other side
A8s versus 99 is this same page seen from the other hand: 32.41% for A8s, 67.59% for 99.
Keep exploring
9s9h against Ad8d is a ready-made deal for the calculator, with no suit in common between the hands. The neighboring matchups below replace one hand with another of similar strength.
How this was computed
Method: exact enumeration. The 24 specific deals are grouped by suit pattern, each is run against all 1,712,304 boards, and both seven-card hands are scored. Equity adds half of every tie, and flop textures are tallied over the ten flops inside each board.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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