99
66.40%
Wins 65.33%, ties 2.14%
A9s
33.60%
Wins 32.53%, ties 2.14%
99 against A9s: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 65.331 | 2.138 | 32.531 | 66.400 |
| A9s | 32.531 | 2.138 | 65.331 | 33.600 |
99, a pocket pair, plays A9s, a suited hand. The pair already holds one of the other hand's ranks, and that overlap cuts down the cards the other hand can pair with.
99 is well ahead, and A9s needs a specific kind of board to catch up. Split pots make up 2.14% of the boards, and both equity figures count them as half a win each.
For context, 99 sits at number 6 of 169 starting hands and A9s at number 18 when each is run against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 13,424,000 | 439,000 | 6,684,000 |
| A9s | 6,684,000 | 439,000 | 13,424,000 |
The total is exact: 12 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards. The three counts are approximate, worked out from the percentages to five decimals and rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 1.976 | 1.531 | 3.074 | 0.506 |
| A9s | 0.506 | 3.074 | 1.531 | 1.976 |
The last column is the break-even price: the pot odds a call needs to offer, as a ratio of pot to call.
Who is ahead on which flops
Split by what the flop looks like, 99 peaks at 81.91% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) and bottoms out at 61.82% on monotone flops. 99 stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.
| Flop | Share of flops | 99 wins | Ties | A9s wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 25.197 | 63.478 | 2.134 | 34.388 | 64.545 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 5.585 | 79.823 | 4.179 | 15.998 | 81.912 |
| Two-tone | 46.236 | 63.073 | 2.243 | 34.684 | 64.194 |
| Monotone | 5.151 | 60.375 | 2.896 | 36.729 | 61.823 |
| Paired | 17.831 | 70.694 | 1.014 | 28.292 | 71.201 |
Flop types: rainbow means three different suits, two-tone means one suit twice, monotone means one suit three times, paired means a repeated rank.
Compared with a random hand
A random hand would give 99 72.06% and A9s 62.78%. Against each other the change is -5.66 points for 99 and -29.18 for A9s.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99, all flops | 66.400 | 72.057 | -5.657 | 0.92149 |
| 99, rainbow, ten or higher | 64.545 | 72.057 | -7.512 | 0.89575 |
| 99, rainbow, nine or lower | 81.912 | 72.057 | +9.855 | 1.13677 |
| 99, two-tone | 64.194 | 72.057 | -7.863 | 0.89088 |
| 99, monotone | 61.823 | 72.057 | -10.234 | 0.85797 |
| 99, paired | 71.201 | 72.057 | -0.856 | 0.98812 |
| A9s, all flops | 33.600 | 62.781 | -29.181 | 0.53519 |
| A9s, rainbow, ten or higher | 35.455 | 62.781 | -27.326 | 0.56474 |
| A9s, rainbow, nine or lower | 18.088 | 62.781 | -44.693 | 0.28811 |
| A9s, two-tone | 35.806 | 62.781 | -26.975 | 0.57033 |
| A9s, monotone | 38.177 | 62.781 | -24.604 | 0.60810 |
| A9s, paired | 28.799 | 62.781 | -33.982 | 0.45872 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Every legal deal of 99 against A9s leaves the hands with no suit in common, so the suit split does not apply here.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | 99 wins | Ties | A9s wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 0 | 0.00 | not possible | not possible | not possible | not possible |
| No shared suit | 12 | 100.00 | 65.331 | 2.138 | 32.531 | 66.400 |
How often this matchup comes up
Out of 1,624,350 ways to deal two seats two cards each, 12 are 99 in one seat and A9s in the other (0.0007%); with the seats swapped too, 24 (0.0015%).
A worked example
Take a $200 pot built from $100 each. 99's equity of 66.40% is worth $132.80, a $32.80 edge, and A9s' 33.60% is worth $67.20, which is $32.80 under its stake.
Think in thousands: about 653 of 1,000 go to 99, about 325 go to A9s, and about 22 are chopped.
The same matchup from the other side
A9s against 99 adds nothing new: it is 33.60% for A9s and 66.40% for 99, the same figures reversed.
Keep exploring
The calculator link fills in 9s9h against Ad9d, a deal where the two hands share no suit. Change any card to test your own hand. The neighboring matchups below swap one of the two hands for one of similar strength.
How this was computed
All 1,712,304 five-card boards are dealt for every suit pattern among the 12 specific deals of 99 against A9s, and both hands are scored on each. That is a full count, so the percentages are exact. Ties are half a win each, and each board appears once per flop it contains.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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