99
55.53%
Wins 55.34%, ties 0.37%
ATo
44.47%
Wins 44.29%, ties 0.37%
99 against ATo: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 55.344 | 0.372 | 44.284 | 55.530 |
| ATo | 44.284 | 0.372 | 55.344 | 44.470 |
The matchup pits a pocket pair against an offsuit hand. A pair against two higher cards is the classic race: the pair is usually a small favorite or close to even, and each overcard that pairs is a way to take the lead.
That is a modest edge, the kind that shows up over many hands and is easy to miss in one. Split pots make up 0.37% of the boards, and both equity figures count them as half a win each.
Ranked by equity against a random hand, 99 is number 6 of the 169 starting hands and ATo is number 19.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 68,231,000 | 459,000 | 54,596,000 |
| ATo | 54,596,000 | 459,000 | 68,231,000 |
The total is exact: 72 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards. The three counts are approximate, worked out from the percentages to five decimals and rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 1.249 | 1.807 | 2.258 | 0.801 |
| ATo | 0.801 | 2.258 | 1.807 | 1.249 |
In the last column, a pot-to-call ratio at or above the figure makes a call break even or better at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
The flop changes the picture. 99 does best on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower), at 78.97%, and worst on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better, at 48.54%. ATo takes over on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better, so the favorite before the flop is the underdog on those boards.
| Flop | Share of flops | 99 wins | Ties | ATo wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 24.717 | 48.447 | 0.178 | 51.375 | 48.536 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 6.314 | 78.528 | 0.884 | 20.588 | 78.970 |
| Two-tone | 46.485 | 54.231 | 0.308 | 45.461 | 54.385 |
| Monotone | 5.151 | 50.907 | 1.696 | 47.397 | 51.755 |
| Paired | 17.333 | 61.041 | 0.241 | 38.718 | 61.161 |
Rainbow flops have three suits, two-tone flops repeat one suit, monotone flops are all one suit, and paired flops repeat a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Compared with a random opponent, this matchup shifts 99 from 72.06% by -16.53 points and ATo from 62.72% by -18.25 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99, all flops | 55.530 | 72.057 | -16.527 | 0.77064 |
| 99, rainbow, ten or higher | 48.536 | 72.057 | -23.521 | 0.67358 |
| 99, rainbow, nine or lower | 78.970 | 72.057 | +6.913 | 1.09594 |
| 99, two-tone | 54.385 | 72.057 | -17.672 | 0.75475 |
| 99, monotone | 51.755 | 72.057 | -20.302 | 0.71825 |
| 99, paired | 61.161 | 72.057 | -10.896 | 0.84879 |
| ATo, all flops | 44.470 | 62.722 | -18.252 | 0.70900 |
| ATo, rainbow, ten or higher | 51.464 | 62.722 | -11.258 | 0.82051 |
| ATo, rainbow, nine or lower | 21.030 | 62.722 | -41.692 | 0.33529 |
| ATo, two-tone | 45.615 | 62.722 | -17.107 | 0.72726 |
| ATo, monotone | 48.245 | 62.722 | -14.477 | 0.76919 |
| ATo, paired | 38.839 | 62.722 | -23.883 | 0.61922 |
Does a shared suit matter?
The suit split reads 55.45% for 99 with a shared suit and 55.94% without one. 99 does better with no shared suit, by 0.49 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | 99 wins | Ties | ATo wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 60 | 83.33 | 55.254 | 0.388 | 44.358 | 55.448 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 16.67 | 55.797 | 0.292 | 43.911 | 55.943 |
How often this matchup comes up
You will meet this exact matchup 0.0089% of the time in a random heads-up deal: 144 of 1,624,350, counting either seat order.
A worked example
Put $100 each into a $200 pot and deal every board once: 99 averages $111.06 back, ahead of its $100 by $11.06, while ATo averages $88.94, short of its $100 by $11.06.
A thousand deals look like this: 99 takes 553, ATo takes 443, 4 are ties.
The same matchup from the other side
If you came looking for ATo against 99, the numbers are the same with the hands swapped: 44.47% and 55.53%.
Keep exploring
Open the calculator with 9s9h against AdTc already entered, a deal with no shared suit, and change any card to try your own hand. The matchups after it each swap one hand for a nearby one in the ranking.
How this was computed
Nothing here is simulated. The 72 deals of 99 against ATo fall into a few suit patterns, each dealt against all 1,712,304 boards, with both best five-card hands compared on every board. Ties give each hand half a win, and the flop rows count a board under each of its ten flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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