99
54.63%
Wins 54.43%, ties 0.39%
QTo
45.37%
Wins 45.18%, ties 0.39%
99 against QTo: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 54.433 | 0.388 | 45.179 | 54.627 |
| QTo | 45.179 | 0.388 | 54.433 | 45.373 |
The first hand is a pocket pair; the second is an offsuit hand. One hand holds a pair and the other holds two cards that both outrank it, which keeps the equity closer than most people expect.
With only 9.26 points between them, the board decides this matchup far more than the cards in hand. 0.39% of boards are ties, so the equity of each hand is its win rate plus half of that.
For context, 99 sits at number 6 of 169 starting hands and QTo at number 47 when each is run against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 67,108,000 | 478,000 | 55,699,000 |
| QTo | 55,699,000 | 478,000 | 67,108,000 |
The board total is exact, 72 deals at 1,712,304 boards each. Won, tied and lost counts are rounded to the nearest thousand from the five-decimal percentages.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 1.204 | 1.837 | 2.213 | 0.831 |
| QTo | 0.831 | 2.213 | 1.837 | 1.204 |
In the last column, a pot-to-call ratio at or above the figure makes a call break even or better at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
Low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) are the best for 99 (79.33%); rainbow flops topped by a ten or better are the worst (46.99%). Rainbow flops topped by a ten or better favor QTo, the hand that is behind overall.
| Flop | Share of flops | 99 wins | Ties | QTo wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 24.717 | 46.901 | 0.182 | 52.917 | 46.992 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 6.314 | 78.874 | 0.906 | 20.220 | 79.327 |
| Two-tone | 46.485 | 53.096 | 0.315 | 46.589 | 53.254 |
| Monotone | 5.151 | 50.004 | 1.701 | 48.295 | 50.855 |
| Paired | 17.333 | 61.173 | 0.295 | 38.532 | 61.321 |
Read the flop types this way: rainbow has three suits, two-tone has two cards of one suit, monotone has three, and paired repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Each hand has a baseline against a random hand: 72.06% for 99, 57.29% for QTo. Here the change is -17.43 and -11.92 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99, all flops | 54.627 | 72.057 | -17.430 | 0.75811 |
| 99, rainbow, ten or higher | 46.992 | 72.057 | -25.065 | 0.65215 |
| 99, rainbow, nine or lower | 79.327 | 72.057 | +7.270 | 1.10089 |
| 99, two-tone | 53.254 | 72.057 | -18.803 | 0.73905 |
| 99, monotone | 50.855 | 72.057 | -21.202 | 0.70576 |
| 99, paired | 61.321 | 72.057 | -10.736 | 0.85101 |
| QTo, all flops | 45.373 | 57.291 | -11.918 | 0.79197 |
| QTo, rainbow, ten or higher | 53.008 | 57.291 | -4.283 | 0.92524 |
| QTo, rainbow, nine or lower | 20.673 | 57.291 | -36.618 | 0.36084 |
| QTo, two-tone | 46.746 | 57.291 | -10.545 | 0.81594 |
| QTo, monotone | 49.145 | 57.291 | -8.146 | 0.85781 |
| QTo, paired | 38.679 | 57.291 | -18.612 | 0.67513 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Looking only at deals where the hands share a suit, 99 has 54.54%; looking only at deals where they do not, 55.07%. 99 does better with no shared suit, by 0.53 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | 99 wins | Ties | QTo wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 60 | 83.33 | 54.338 | 0.403 | 45.259 | 54.539 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 16.67 | 54.912 | 0.308 | 44.780 | 55.066 |
How often this matchup comes up
Counting specific cards, 99 against QTo appears in 72 of the 1,624,350 ordered heads-up deals (0.0044%), and in 144 when the seats are swapped too (0.0089%).
A worked example
Say each player puts $100 in before the flop, making a $200 pot. On average 99 takes back $109.26 of it, which is $9.26 more than it put in, and QTo takes back $90.74, $9.26 less than it put in.
A thousand deals look like this: 99 takes 544, QTo takes 452, 4 are ties.
The same matchup from the other side
If you came looking for QTo against 99, the numbers are the same with the hands swapped: 45.37% and 54.63%.
Keep exploring
Open the calculator with 9s9h against QdTc already entered, a deal with no shared suit, and change any card to try your own hand. The matchups after it each swap one hand for a nearby one in the ranking.
How this was computed
Nothing here is simulated. The 72 deals of 99 against QTo fall into a few suit patterns, each dealt against all 1,712,304 boards, with both best five-card hands compared on every board. Ties give each hand half a win, and the flop rows count a board under each of its ten flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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