A9s
60.15%
Wins 59.92%, ties 0.45%
KTo
39.85%
Wins 39.63%, ties 0.45%
A9s against KTo: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A9s | 59.922 | 0.450 | 39.628 | 60.147 |
| KTo | 39.628 | 0.450 | 59.922 | 39.853 |
A9s and KTo are a suited hand and an offsuit hand, in that order. Neither hand shares a rank with the other, so this is a contest of high cards, connection and suits.
A9s is ahead, but KTo is far from dead: it takes 396 of every 1,000 deals outright. Ties are 0.45% of the outcomes here; each tied board gives both hands half the pot.
By strength against a random hand, A9s holds place 18 of 169 and KTo holds place 33.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| A9s | 49,250,000 | 370,000 | 32,570,000 |
| KTo | 32,570,000 | 370,000 | 49,250,000 |
The total is exact: 48 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards. The three counts are approximate, worked out from the percentages to five decimals and rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A9s | 1.509 | 1.669 | 2.523 | 0.663 |
| KTo | 0.663 | 2.523 | 1.669 | 1.509 |
The last column is the break-even price: the pot odds a call needs to offer, as a ratio of pot to call.
Who is ahead on which flops
If you know the kind of flop that came, the numbers shift: A9s holds 76.16% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) and 53.04% on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better. A9s stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.
| Flop | Share of flops | A9s wins | Ties | KTo wins | A9s equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.988 | 52.957 | 0.156 | 46.887 | 53.035 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.042 | 75.764 | 0.789 | 23.447 | 76.158 |
| Two-tone | 46.667 | 59.648 | 0.274 | 40.078 | 59.785 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 55.396 | 2.370 | 42.234 | 56.581 |
| Paired | 17.091 | 65.300 | 0.616 | 34.084 | 65.608 |
Flop types: rainbow means three different suits, two-tone means one suit twice, monotone means one suit three times, paired means a repeated rank.
Compared with a random hand
Each hand has a baseline against a random hand: 62.78% for A9s, 59.74% for KTo. Here the change is -2.63 and -19.89 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A9s, all flops | 60.147 | 62.781 | -2.634 | 0.95804 |
| A9s, rainbow, ten or higher | 53.035 | 62.781 | -9.746 | 0.84476 |
| A9s, rainbow, nine or lower | 76.158 | 62.781 | +13.377 | 1.21307 |
| A9s, two-tone | 59.785 | 62.781 | -2.996 | 0.95228 |
| A9s, monotone | 56.581 | 62.781 | -6.200 | 0.90124 |
| A9s, paired | 65.608 | 62.781 | +2.827 | 1.04503 |
| KTo, all flops | 39.853 | 59.739 | -19.886 | 0.66712 |
| KTo, rainbow, ten or higher | 46.965 | 59.739 | -12.774 | 0.78617 |
| KTo, rainbow, nine or lower | 23.842 | 59.739 | -35.897 | 0.39910 |
| KTo, two-tone | 40.215 | 59.739 | -19.524 | 0.67318 |
| KTo, monotone | 43.419 | 59.739 | -16.320 | 0.72681 |
| KTo, paired | 34.392 | 59.739 | -25.347 | 0.57570 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Of the deals of this matchup, 24 share a suit (A9s at 59.82%) and 24 do not (60.48%). A9s does better with no shared suit, by 0.66 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | A9s wins | Ties | KTo wins | A9s equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 24 | 50.00 | 59.570 | 0.491 | 39.939 | 59.816 |
| No shared suit | 24 | 50.00 | 60.274 | 0.409 | 39.317 | 60.478 |
How often this matchup comes up
A9s against KTo is made up of 48 specific-card matchups in one seat order, 0.0030% of the 1,624,350 ordered deals, and 96 counting both seat orders, 0.0059%.
A worked example
Try it with money: two players each put in $100 and the whole board runs out every possible way. A9s averages $120.30 from the $200, up $20.30; KTo averages $79.70, down $20.30.
Over a long run, 1,000 deals split into about 599 for A9s, 396 for KTo and 5 tied.
The same matchup from the other side
Swap the hands and you get KTo with 39.85% against A9s with 60.15%. We keep one page per matchup, with the better-ranked hand first.
Keep exploring
The calculator link fills in As9s against KhTd, a deal where the two hands share no suit. Change any card to test your own hand. The neighboring matchups below swap one of the two hands for one of similar strength.
How this was computed
The figures are counted, not estimated: 1,712,304 boards for every suit pattern of the 48 specific deals, with both seven-card hands compared each time. Equity gives half a win for a tie. For the flop rows, a board is counted once under each of the ten flops inside it.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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