AA
80.86%
Wins 80.68%, ties 0.36%
99
19.14%
Wins 18.96%, ties 0.36%
AA against 99: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 80.679 | 0.364 | 18.957 | 80.861 |
| 99 | 18.957 | 0.364 | 80.679 | 19.139 |
Each side holds one of the pocket pairs: AA and 99. Two pairs against each other is a one-way street: the lower pair needs one of its two remaining cards.
A gap this wide means 99 is in trouble before the flop and has few good runouts. Split pots make up 0.36% of the boards, and both equity figures count them as half a win each.
By strength against a random hand, AA holds place 1 of 169 and 99 holds place 6.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 49,733,000 | 224,000 | 11,686,000 |
| 99 | 11,686,000 | 224,000 | 49,733,000 |
The total is exact: 36 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards. The three counts are approximate, worked out from the percentages to five decimals and rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 4.225 | 1.239 | 5.275 | 0.237 |
| 99 | 0.237 | 5.275 | 1.239 | 4.225 |
In the last column, a pot-to-call ratio at or above the figure makes a call break even or better at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
Break the boards down by their first three cards and AA is strongest on paired flops (86.42%) and weakest on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) (69.51%). AA stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.
| Flop | Share of flops | AA wins | Ties | 99 wins | AA equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 24.595 | 82.989 | 0.187 | 16.824 | 83.082 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 6.314 | 68.988 | 1.048 | 29.964 | 69.512 |
| Two-tone | 46.363 | 79.570 | 0.348 | 20.082 | 79.744 |
| Monotone | 5.152 | 74.381 | 1.727 | 23.892 | 75.244 |
| Paired | 17.576 | 86.416 | 0.007 | 13.577 | 86.419 |
Rainbow flops have three suits, two-tone flops repeat one suit, monotone flops are all one suit, and paired flops repeat a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Against one random hand instead, AA holds 85.20% and 99 holds 72.06%. Facing each other changes that by -4.34 points for AA and -52.92 points for 99.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA, all flops | 80.861 | 85.204 | -4.343 | 0.94903 |
| AA, rainbow, ten or higher | 83.082 | 85.204 | -2.122 | 0.97510 |
| AA, rainbow, nine or lower | 69.512 | 85.204 | -15.692 | 0.81583 |
| AA, two-tone | 79.744 | 85.204 | -5.460 | 0.93592 |
| AA, monotone | 75.244 | 85.204 | -9.960 | 0.88310 |
| AA, paired | 86.419 | 85.204 | +1.215 | 1.01426 |
| 99, all flops | 19.139 | 72.057 | -52.918 | 0.26561 |
| 99, rainbow, ten or higher | 16.918 | 72.057 | -55.139 | 0.23479 |
| 99, rainbow, nine or lower | 30.488 | 72.057 | -41.569 | 0.42311 |
| 99, two-tone | 20.256 | 72.057 | -51.801 | 0.28111 |
| 99, monotone | 24.756 | 72.057 | -47.301 | 0.34356 |
| 99, paired | 13.581 | 72.057 | -58.476 | 0.18848 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Two kinds of deal exist here. In 30 of them the hands share a suit and AA holds 80.99%. In 6 they do not, and it holds 80.19%. AA does better with a shared suit, by 0.80 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | AA wins | Ties | 99 wins | AA equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 30 | 83.33 | 80.804 | 0.380 | 18.816 | 80.994 |
| No shared suit | 6 | 16.67 | 80.052 | 0.283 | 19.665 | 80.194 |
How often this matchup comes up
Out of 1,624,350 ways to deal two seats two cards each, 36 are AA in one seat and 99 in the other (0.0022%); with the seats swapped too, 72 (0.0044%).
A worked example
To see what the equity is worth, imagine $100 each in a $200 pot. AA is worth $161.72 on average (+$61.72); 99 is worth $38.28 (-$61.72).
Per 1,000 deals: AA wins about 807, 99 wins about 189, and about 4 end in a split pot.
The same matchup from the other side
99 against AA adds nothing new: it is 19.14% for 99 and 80.86% for AA, the same figures reversed.
Keep exploring
Open the calculator with AsAh against 9d9c already entered, a deal with no shared suit, and change any card to try your own hand. The matchups after it each swap one hand for a nearby one in the ranking.
How this was computed
All 1,712,304 five-card boards are dealt for every suit pattern among the 36 specific deals of AA against 99, and both hands are scored on each. That is a full count, so the percentages are exact. Ties are half a win each, and each board appears once per flop it contains.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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