AA
81.08%
Wins 80.89%, ties 0.38%
Q9s
18.92%
Wins 18.73%, ties 0.38%
AA against Q9s: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 80.893 | 0.381 | 18.726 | 81.083 |
| Q9s | 18.726 | 0.381 | 80.893 | 18.917 |
AA, a pocket pair, plays Q9s, a suited hand. A pair against two lower cards is a lopsided matchup: the pair is ahead and the other hand has no overcard to catch.
A gap this wide means Q9s is in trouble before the flop and has few good runouts. Ties are part of the picture: 0.38% of boards end in a split pot, and each side counts that as half a win.
In the ranking of all 169 starting hands, AA is number 1 and Q9s is number 43.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 33,243,000 | 157,000 | 7,696,000 |
| Q9s | 7,696,000 | 157,000 | 33,243,000 |
Exact total: 24 deals times 1,712,304 boards. The other three counts come from the five-decimal percentages and are rounded to the nearest thousand, so read them as approximate.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 4.286 | 1.236 | 5.340 | 0.233 |
| Q9s | 0.233 | 5.340 | 1.236 | 4.286 |
In the last column, a pot-to-call ratio at or above the figure makes a call break even or better at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
Split by what the flop looks like, AA peaks at 86.99% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) and bottoms out at 75.38% on monotone flops. AA stays ahead on all five textures.
| Flop | Share of flops | AA wins | Ties | Q9s wins | AA equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.867 | 81.710 | 0.153 | 18.137 | 81.787 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.042 | 86.497 | 0.993 | 12.510 | 86.993 |
| Two-tone | 46.545 | 79.167 | 0.317 | 20.516 | 79.326 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 74.172 | 2.406 | 23.422 | 75.375 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 84.146 | 0.007 | 15.847 | 84.149 |
Read the flop types this way: rainbow has three suits, two-tone has two cards of one suit, monotone has three, and paired repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
How much does the opponent matter? Compared with its random-hand 85.20%, AA changes by -4.12 points, and Q9s, from 57.66%, by -38.74.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA, all flops | 81.083 | 85.204 | -4.121 | 0.95163 |
| AA, rainbow, ten or higher | 81.787 | 85.204 | -3.417 | 0.95990 |
| AA, rainbow, nine or lower | 86.993 | 85.204 | +1.789 | 1.02100 |
| AA, two-tone | 79.326 | 85.204 | -5.878 | 0.93101 |
| AA, monotone | 75.375 | 85.204 | -9.829 | 0.88464 |
| AA, paired | 84.149 | 85.204 | -1.055 | 0.98762 |
| Q9s, all flops | 18.917 | 57.664 | -38.747 | 0.32806 |
| Q9s, rainbow, ten or higher | 18.213 | 57.664 | -39.451 | 0.31585 |
| Q9s, rainbow, nine or lower | 13.007 | 57.664 | -44.657 | 0.22557 |
| Q9s, two-tone | 20.674 | 57.664 | -36.990 | 0.35853 |
| Q9s, monotone | 24.625 | 57.664 | -33.039 | 0.42704 |
| Q9s, paired | 15.851 | 57.664 | -41.813 | 0.27489 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Split by suits, the deals give AA 81.70% when the hands overlap in a suit and 80.47% when they do not. AA does better with a shared suit, by 1.23 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | AA wins | Ties | Q9s wins | AA equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 50.00 | 81.486 | 0.422 | 18.092 | 81.697 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 50.00 | 80.300 | 0.339 | 19.361 | 80.470 |
How often this matchup comes up
AA against Q9s is made up of 24 specific-card matchups in one seat order, 0.0015% of the 1,624,350 ordered deals, and 48 counting both seat orders, 0.0030%.
A worked example
Say each player puts $100 in before the flop, making a $200 pot. On average AA takes back $162.16 of it, which is $62.16 more than it put in, and Q9s takes back $37.84, $62.16 less than it put in.
Out of 1,000 deals you should see around 809 outright wins for AA, 187 for Q9s, and 4 split pots.
The same matchup from the other side
The reversed view, Q9s against AA, shows 18.92% for Q9s and 81.08% for AA. It is the same count, so it redirects here.
Keep exploring
Open the calculator with AsAh against Qd9d already entered, a deal with no shared suit, and change any card to try your own hand. The matchups after it each swap one hand for a nearby one in the ranking.
How this was computed
The page is built from a full enumeration: 1,712,304 boards, every suit pattern of the 24 specific deals, both seven-card hands evaluated. A tie is worth half a win to each hand, and a board is tallied under each of its ten possible flops for the texture rows.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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