AJo
58.05%
Wins 57.82%, ties 0.46%
QTs
41.95%
Wins 41.72%, ties 0.46%
AJo against QTs: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJo | 57.819 | 0.456 | 41.725 | 58.047 |
| QTs | 41.725 | 0.456 | 57.819 | 41.953 |
The matchup pits an offsuit hand against a suited hand. Neither hand shares a rank with the other, so this is a contest of high cards, connection and suits.
That is a modest edge, the kind that shows up over many hands and is easy to miss in one. Ties are 0.46% of the outcomes here; each tied board gives both hands half the pot.
Ranked by equity against a random hand, AJo is number 15 of the 169 starting hands and QTs is number 34.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| AJo | 47,522,000 | 375,000 | 34,294,000 |
| QTs | 34,294,000 | 375,000 | 47,522,000 |
The total is exact: 48 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards. The three counts are approximate, worked out from the percentages to five decimals and rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJo | 1.384 | 1.730 | 2.397 | 0.723 |
| QTs | 0.723 | 2.397 | 1.730 | 1.384 |
In the last column, a pot-to-call ratio at or above the figure makes a call break even or better at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
Across the five flop textures AJo's equity moves by 16.15 points, from 54.92% on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better to 71.07% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower). AJo stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.
| Flop | Share of flops | AJo wins | Ties | QTs wins | AJo equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.260 | 54.869 | 0.110 | 45.021 | 54.924 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.770 | 70.620 | 0.908 | 28.472 | 71.074 |
| Two-tone | 46.667 | 56.085 | 0.282 | 43.633 | 56.226 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 54.481 | 2.375 | 43.144 | 55.668 |
| Paired | 17.091 | 61.769 | 0.612 | 37.619 | 62.075 |
Read the flop types this way: rainbow has three suits, two-tone has two cards of one suit, monotone has three, and paired repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Start from the random-hand figures, 63.56% for AJo and 59.47% for QTs. This opponent changes them by -5.51 and -17.52 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJo, all flops | 58.047 | 63.563 | -5.516 | 0.91322 |
| AJo, rainbow, ten or higher | 54.924 | 63.563 | -8.639 | 0.86409 |
| AJo, rainbow, nine or lower | 71.074 | 63.563 | +7.511 | 1.11817 |
| AJo, two-tone | 56.226 | 63.563 | -7.337 | 0.88457 |
| AJo, monotone | 55.668 | 63.563 | -7.895 | 0.87579 |
| AJo, paired | 62.075 | 63.563 | -1.488 | 0.97659 |
| QTs, all flops | 41.953 | 59.468 | -17.515 | 0.70547 |
| QTs, rainbow, ten or higher | 45.076 | 59.468 | -14.392 | 0.75799 |
| QTs, rainbow, nine or lower | 28.926 | 59.468 | -30.542 | 0.48641 |
| QTs, two-tone | 43.774 | 59.468 | -15.694 | 0.73609 |
| QTs, monotone | 44.332 | 59.468 | -15.136 | 0.74548 |
| QTs, paired | 37.925 | 59.468 | -21.543 | 0.63774 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Looking only at deals where the hands share a suit, AJo has 58.55%; looking only at deals where they do not, 57.55%. AJo does better with a shared suit, by 1.00 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | AJo wins | Ties | QTs wins | AJo equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 24 | 50.00 | 58.300 | 0.496 | 41.204 | 58.548 |
| No shared suit | 24 | 50.00 | 57.339 | 0.416 | 42.245 | 57.547 |
How often this matchup comes up
AJo against QTs is made up of 48 specific-card matchups in one seat order, 0.0030% of the 1,624,350 ordered deals, and 96 counting both seat orders, 0.0059%.
A worked example
A $100 all-in from each player makes a $200 pot, and the exact equity says AJo gets $116.10 of it on average and QTs gets $83.90.
In 1,000 deals of exactly this matchup, expect about 578 won outright by AJo, about 417 won outright by QTs and about 5 split.
The same matchup from the other side
QTs versus AJo is this same page seen from the other hand: 41.95% for QTs, 58.05% for AJo.
Keep exploring
The calculator link fills in AsJh against QdTd, a deal where the two hands share no suit. Change any card to test your own hand. The neighboring matchups below swap one of the two hands for one of similar strength.
How this was computed
The figures are counted, not estimated: 1,712,304 boards for every suit pattern of the 48 specific deals, with both seven-card hands compared each time. Equity gives half a win for a tie. For the flop rows, a board is counted once under each of the ten flops inside it.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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