AJs
64.67%
Wins 64.43%, ties 0.46%
KTo
35.33%
Wins 35.11%, ties 0.46%
AJs against KTo: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJs | 64.434 | 0.464 | 35.102 | 64.666 |
| KTo | 35.102 | 0.464 | 64.434 | 35.334 |
We compare a suited hand with an offsuit hand. Neither hand shares a rank with the other, so this is a contest of high cards, connection and suits.
A 29.34 point lead is real, and KTo still takes about 351 of every 1,000 deals outright. A split pot comes up on 0.46% of boards, so the wins and the equity differ by half of that.
Among the 169 starting hands, AJs is number 11 and KTo is number 33 by strength against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| AJs | 52,959,000 | 381,000 | 28,851,000 |
| KTo | 28,851,000 | 381,000 | 52,959,000 |
The board total is exact, 48 deals at 1,712,304 boards each. Won, tied and lost counts are rounded to the nearest thousand from the five-decimal percentages.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJs | 1.830 | 1.552 | 2.849 | 0.546 |
| KTo | 0.546 | 2.849 | 1.552 | 1.830 |
The last column is the break-even price: the pot odds a call needs to offer, as a ratio of pot to call.
Who is ahead on which flops
Low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) are the best for AJs (76.28%); rainbow flops topped by a ten or better are the worst (59.34%). AJs stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.
| Flop | Share of flops | AJs wins | Ties | KTo wins | AJs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.260 | 59.277 | 0.119 | 40.604 | 59.337 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.770 | 75.817 | 0.928 | 23.255 | 76.281 |
| Two-tone | 46.667 | 64.532 | 0.293 | 35.175 | 64.678 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 59.152 | 2.382 | 38.466 | 60.343 |
| Paired | 17.091 | 67.620 | 0.608 | 31.772 | 67.924 |
Rainbow flops have three suits, two-tone flops repeat one suit, monotone flops are all one suit, and paired flops repeat a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Each hand has a baseline against a random hand: 65.39% for AJs, 59.74% for KTo. Here the change is -0.72 and -24.41 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJs, all flops | 64.666 | 65.393 | -0.727 | 0.98888 |
| AJs, rainbow, ten or higher | 59.337 | 65.393 | -6.056 | 0.90739 |
| AJs, rainbow, nine or lower | 76.281 | 65.393 | +10.888 | 1.16650 |
| AJs, two-tone | 64.678 | 65.393 | -0.715 | 0.98907 |
| AJs, monotone | 60.343 | 65.393 | -5.050 | 0.92277 |
| AJs, paired | 67.924 | 65.393 | +2.531 | 1.03870 |
| KTo, all flops | 35.334 | 59.739 | -24.405 | 0.59147 |
| KTo, rainbow, ten or higher | 40.663 | 59.739 | -19.076 | 0.68068 |
| KTo, rainbow, nine or lower | 23.719 | 59.739 | -36.020 | 0.39704 |
| KTo, two-tone | 35.322 | 59.739 | -24.417 | 0.59127 |
| KTo, monotone | 39.657 | 59.739 | -20.082 | 0.66384 |
| KTo, paired | 32.076 | 59.739 | -27.663 | 0.53694 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Looking only at deals where the hands share a suit, AJs has 64.43%; looking only at deals where they do not, 64.90%. AJs does better with no shared suit, by 0.47 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | AJs wins | Ties | KTo wins | AJs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 24 | 50.00 | 64.180 | 0.504 | 35.316 | 64.432 |
| No shared suit | 24 | 50.00 | 64.688 | 0.424 | 34.888 | 64.900 |
How often this matchup comes up
Counting specific cards, AJs against KTo appears in 48 of the 1,624,350 ordered heads-up deals (0.0030%), and in 96 when the seats are swapped too (0.0059%).
A worked example
Say each player puts $100 in before the flop, making a $200 pot. On average AJs takes back $129.34 of it, which is $29.34 more than it put in, and KTo takes back $70.66, $29.34 less than it put in.
Think in thousands: about 644 of 1,000 go to AJs, about 351 go to KTo, and about 5 are chopped.
The same matchup from the other side
KTo versus AJs is this same page seen from the other hand: 35.33% for KTo, 64.67% for AJs.
Keep exploring
The calculator link fills in AsJs against KhTd, a deal where the two hands share no suit. Change any card to test your own hand. The neighboring matchups below swap one of the two hands for one of similar strength.
How this was computed
The figures are counted, not estimated: 1,712,304 boards for every suit pattern of the 48 specific deals, with both seven-card hands compared each time. Equity gives half a win for a tie. For the flop rows, a board is counted once under each of the ten flops inside it.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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