AKs
71.19%
Wins 69.06%, ties 4.27%
A9s
28.81%
Wins 26.67%, ties 4.27%
AKs against A9s: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKs | 69.058 | 4.271 | 26.671 | 71.193 |
| A9s | 26.671 | 4.271 | 69.058 | 28.807 |
AKs and A9s are both suited hands. The two hands share a rank, and the one with the better other card dominates: it wins most kicker battles when that shared rank hits.
That is a clear edge, 71.19% to 28.81%, but A9s still wins often enough that one hand proves nothing. The tie share is 4.27%: on those boards the pot is chopped and neither hand wins outright.
Place 8 of 169 belongs to AKs and place 18 belongs to A9s in the ranking against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| AKs | 14,190,000 | 878,000 | 5,480,000 |
| A9s | 5,480,000 | 878,000 | 14,190,000 |
Exact total: 12 deals times 1,712,304 boards. The other three counts come from the five-decimal percentages and are rounded to the nearest thousand, so read them as approximate.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKs | 2.471 | 1.448 | 3.749 | 0.405 |
| A9s | 0.405 | 3.749 | 1.448 | 2.471 |
In the last column, a pot-to-call ratio at or above the figure makes a call break even or better at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
Break the boards down by their first three cards and AKs is strongest on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better (77.56%) and weakest on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) (59.57%). AKs stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.
| Flop | Share of flops | AKs wins | Ties | A9s wins | AKs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.867 | 76.377 | 2.366 | 21.257 | 77.560 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.042 | 57.424 | 4.290 | 38.286 | 59.569 |
| Two-tone | 46.543 | 69.222 | 2.503 | 28.275 | 70.473 |
| Monotone | 5.215 | 62.407 | 4.504 | 33.089 | 64.659 |
| Paired | 17.333 | 65.265 | 11.566 | 23.169 | 71.048 |
Read the flop types this way: rainbow has three suits, two-tone has two cards of one suit, monotone has three, and paired repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
The table below sets each hand against its own random-hand baseline: a change of +4.14 points for AKs, from 67.05%, and -33.97 for A9s, from 62.78%.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKs, all flops | 71.193 | 67.045 | +4.148 | 1.06187 |
| AKs, rainbow, ten or higher | 77.560 | 67.045 | +10.515 | 1.15683 |
| AKs, rainbow, nine or lower | 59.569 | 67.045 | -7.476 | 0.88849 |
| AKs, two-tone | 70.473 | 67.045 | +3.428 | 1.05113 |
| AKs, monotone | 64.659 | 67.045 | -2.386 | 0.96441 |
| AKs, paired | 71.048 | 67.045 | +4.003 | 1.05971 |
| A9s, all flops | 28.807 | 62.781 | -33.974 | 0.45885 |
| A9s, rainbow, ten or higher | 22.440 | 62.781 | -40.341 | 0.35743 |
| A9s, rainbow, nine or lower | 40.431 | 62.781 | -22.350 | 0.64400 |
| A9s, two-tone | 29.527 | 62.781 | -33.254 | 0.47032 |
| A9s, monotone | 35.341 | 62.781 | -27.440 | 0.56293 |
| A9s, paired | 28.952 | 62.781 | -33.829 | 0.46116 |
Does a shared suit matter?
There is no shared-suit case for this pair, since the cards they would need are already in the other hand. Every deal is a no-shared-suit deal.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | AKs wins | Ties | A9s wins | AKs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 0 | 0.00 | not possible | not possible | not possible | not possible |
| No shared suit | 12 | 100.00 | 69.058 | 4.271 | 26.671 | 71.193 |
How often this matchup comes up
Exactly 12 specific deals fit this matchup in one seat order, which is 0.0007% of 1,624,350; both orders together give 24, or 0.0015%.
A worked example
Put $100 each into a $200 pot and deal every board once: AKs averages $142.38 back, ahead of its $100 by $42.38, while A9s averages $57.62, short of its $100 by $42.38.
Scaled to 1,000 deals, that is roughly 690 wins for AKs, 267 for A9s and 43 chopped pots.
The same matchup from the other side
A9s versus AKs is this same page seen from the other hand: 28.81% for A9s, 71.19% for AKs.
Keep exploring
The calculator link fills in AsKs against Ah9h, a deal where the two hands share no suit. Change any card to test your own hand. The neighboring matchups below swap one of the two hands for one of similar strength.
How this was computed
The page is built from a full enumeration: 1,712,304 boards, every suit pattern of the 12 specific deals, both seven-card hands evaluated. A tie is worth half a win to each hand, and a board is tallied under each of its ten possible flops for the texture rows.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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