AKs
64.45%
Wins 64.20%, ties 0.51%
Q9s
35.55%
Wins 35.29%, ties 0.51%
AKs against Q9s: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKs | 64.196 | 0.509 | 35.295 | 64.450 |
| Q9s | 35.295 | 0.509 | 64.196 | 35.550 |
The matchup is suited hands on both sides, AKs against Q9s. The two hands share no rank, which makes this a pure matchup of card strength, straight chances and flush chances.
That is a modest edge, the kind that shows up over many hands and is easy to miss in one. Of every 100 boards, about 0.51 are split pots, and the equity figures already include them.
In the ranking of all 169 starting hands, AKs is number 8 and Q9s is number 43.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| AKs | 17,588,000 | 139,000 | 9,670,000 |
| Q9s | 9,670,000 | 139,000 | 17,588,000 |
Exact total: 16 deals times 1,712,304 boards. The other three counts come from the five-decimal percentages and are rounded to the nearest thousand, so read them as approximate.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKs | 1.813 | 1.558 | 2.833 | 0.552 |
| Q9s | 0.552 | 2.833 | 1.558 | 1.813 |
The last column is the smallest pot odds, written as a pot-to-call ratio, at which a call breaks even with this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
Break the boards down by their first three cards and AKs is strongest on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better (66.94%) and weakest on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) (58.19%). AKs stays ahead on all five textures.
| Flop | Share of flops | AKs wins | Ties | Q9s wins | AKs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.867 | 66.884 | 0.116 | 33.000 | 66.942 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.042 | 57.693 | 0.988 | 41.319 | 58.187 |
| Two-tone | 46.727 | 63.675 | 0.275 | 36.050 | 63.812 |
| Monotone | 5.273 | 59.549 | 3.416 | 37.035 | 61.257 |
| Paired | 17.091 | 65.977 | 0.608 | 33.415 | 66.281 |
Flop types: rainbow means three different suits, two-tone means one suit twice, monotone means one suit three times, paired means a repeated rank.
Compared with a random hand
A random hand would give AKs 67.05% and Q9s 57.66%. Against each other the change is -2.60 points for AKs and -22.11 for Q9s.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKs, all flops | 64.450 | 67.045 | -2.595 | 0.96129 |
| AKs, rainbow, ten or higher | 66.942 | 67.045 | -0.103 | 0.99846 |
| AKs, rainbow, nine or lower | 58.187 | 67.045 | -8.858 | 0.86788 |
| AKs, two-tone | 63.812 | 67.045 | -3.233 | 0.95178 |
| AKs, monotone | 61.257 | 67.045 | -5.788 | 0.91367 |
| AKs, paired | 66.281 | 67.045 | -0.764 | 0.98860 |
| Q9s, all flops | 35.550 | 57.664 | -22.114 | 0.61650 |
| Q9s, rainbow, ten or higher | 33.058 | 57.664 | -24.606 | 0.57329 |
| Q9s, rainbow, nine or lower | 41.813 | 57.664 | -15.851 | 0.72511 |
| Q9s, two-tone | 36.188 | 57.664 | -21.476 | 0.62757 |
| Q9s, monotone | 38.743 | 57.664 | -18.921 | 0.67188 |
| Q9s, paired | 33.719 | 57.664 | -23.945 | 0.58475 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Does suit overlap move the numbers? AKs has 66.96% when the hands share a suit and 63.61% when they do not. AKs does better with a shared suit, by 3.35 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | AKs wins | Ties | Q9s wins | AKs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 4 | 25.00 | 66.668 | 0.589 | 32.743 | 66.962 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 75.00 | 63.372 | 0.483 | 36.145 | 63.613 |
How often this matchup comes up
The class pair covers 16 combinations of specific cards in a fixed seat order, 0.0010% of 1,624,350, and 32 (0.0020%) in either order.
A worked example
A $100 all-in from each player makes a $200 pot, and the exact equity says AKs gets $128.90 of it on average and Q9s gets $71.10.
Scaled to 1,000 deals, that is roughly 642 wins for AKs, 353 for Q9s and 5 chopped pots.
The same matchup from the other side
If you came looking for Q9s against AKs, the numbers are the same with the hands swapped: 35.55% and 64.45%.
Keep exploring
Open the calculator with AsKs against Qh9h already entered, a deal with no shared suit, and change any card to try your own hand. The matchups after it each swap one hand for a nearby one in the ranking.
How this was computed
Method: exact enumeration. The 16 specific deals are grouped by suit pattern, each is run against all 1,712,304 boards, and both seven-card hands are scored. Equity adds half of every tie, and flop textures are tallied over the ten flops inside each board.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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