AQs
48.91%
Wins 48.65%, ties 0.52%
44
51.09%
Wins 50.83%, ties 0.52%
AQs against 44: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AQs | 48.650 | 0.516 | 50.834 | 48.908 |
| 44 | 50.834 | 0.516 | 48.650 | 51.092 |
Here a suited hand (AQs) meets a pocket pair (44). This is a pair against two overcards, a matchup that stays close because the other hand only needs one of its ranks to appear.
This is close to even money, with 44 a little ahead. Of every 100 boards, about 0.52 are split pots, and the equity figures already include them.
For context, AQs sits at number 10 of 169 starting hands and 44 at number 48 when each is run against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| AQs | 19,993,000 | 212,000 | 20,890,000 |
| 44 | 20,890,000 | 212,000 | 19,993,000 |
The total is exact: 24 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards. The three counts are approximate, worked out from the percentages to five decimals and rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AQs | 0.957 | 2.055 | 1.967 | 1.045 |
| 44 | 1.045 | 1.967 | 2.055 | 0.957 |
The last column is the break-even price: the pot odds a call needs to offer, as a ratio of pot to call.
Who is ahead on which flops
Break the boards down by their first three cards and 44 is strongest on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) (77.48%) and weakest on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better (45.61%). AQs takes over on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better and two-tone flops, so the favorite before the flop is the underdog on those boards.
| Flop | Share of flops | AQs wins | Ties | 44 wins | AQs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 24.595 | 54.296 | 0.188 | 45.516 | 54.390 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 6.314 | 22.002 | 1.035 | 76.963 | 22.520 |
| Two-tone | 46.545 | 49.952 | 0.331 | 49.717 | 50.118 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 47.741 | 2.823 | 49.436 | 49.152 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 47.121 | 0.596 | 52.283 | 47.419 |
Rainbow flops have three suits, two-tone flops repeat one suit, monotone flops are all one suit, and paired flops repeat a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Compared with a random opponent, this matchup shifts AQs from 66.21% by -17.30 points and 44 from 57.02% by -5.93 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AQs, all flops | 48.908 | 66.209 | -17.301 | 0.73869 |
| AQs, rainbow, ten or higher | 54.390 | 66.209 | -11.819 | 0.82149 |
| AQs, rainbow, nine or lower | 22.520 | 66.209 | -43.689 | 0.34014 |
| AQs, two-tone | 50.118 | 66.209 | -16.091 | 0.75697 |
| AQs, monotone | 49.152 | 66.209 | -17.057 | 0.74238 |
| AQs, paired | 47.419 | 66.209 | -18.790 | 0.71620 |
| 44, all flops | 51.092 | 57.023 | -5.931 | 0.89599 |
| 44, rainbow, ten or higher | 45.610 | 57.023 | -11.413 | 0.79985 |
| 44, rainbow, nine or lower | 77.480 | 57.023 | +20.457 | 1.35875 |
| 44, two-tone | 49.882 | 57.023 | -7.141 | 0.87477 |
| 44, monotone | 50.848 | 57.023 | -6.175 | 0.89171 |
| 44, paired | 52.581 | 57.023 | -4.442 | 0.92210 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Suit overlap shows up in the numbers. With a suit in common 44 has 51.27% equity, and with none in common it has 50.91%. 44 does better with a shared suit, by 0.36 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | AQs wins | Ties | 44 wins | AQs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 50.00 | 48.449 | 0.553 | 50.998 | 48.726 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 50.00 | 48.851 | 0.478 | 50.671 | 49.090 |
How often this matchup comes up
How often does it happen? 24 of the 1,624,350 ordered deals (0.0015%) are AQs against 44, and 48 (0.0030%) if either hand may sit in either seat.
A worked example
Take a $200 pot built from $100 each. 44's equity of 51.09% is worth $102.18, a $2.18 edge, and AQs' 48.91% is worth $97.82, which is $2.18 under its stake.
Out of 1,000 deals you should see around 508 outright wins for 44, 487 for AQs, and 5 split pots.
The same matchup from the other side
Swap the hands and you get 44 with 51.09% against AQs with 48.91%. We keep one page per matchup, with the better-ranked hand first.
Keep exploring
Open the calculator with AsQs against 4h4d already entered, a deal with no shared suit, and change any card to try your own hand. The matchups after it each swap one hand for a nearby one in the ranking.
How this was computed
Nothing here is simulated. The 24 deals of AQs against 44 fall into a few suit patterns, each dealt against all 1,712,304 boards, with both best five-card hands compared on every board. Ties give each hand half a win, and the flop rows count a board under each of its ten flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
Bring your own hands to a session
Review the spots you actually play against these numbers in a Game Assessment, and leave with a one-page written plan.
Book a session