AQs
65.03%
Wins 64.80%, ties 0.46%
JTo
34.97%
Wins 34.74%, ties 0.46%
AQs against JTo: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AQs | 64.801 | 0.458 | 34.741 | 65.030 |
| JTo | 34.741 | 0.458 | 64.801 | 34.970 |
The matchup pits a suited hand against an offsuit hand. Neither hand shares a rank with the other, so this is a contest of high cards, connection and suits.
AQs is the clear favorite, though JTo gets there on roughly one board in 3. Of every 100 boards, about 0.46 are split pots, and the equity figures already include them.
The hand ranking puts AQs at 10 and JTo at 57 out of 169 starting hands.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| AQs | 53,260,000 | 376,000 | 28,554,000 |
| JTo | 28,554,000 | 376,000 | 53,260,000 |
The board total is exact, 48 deals at 1,712,304 boards each. Won, tied and lost counts are rounded to the nearest thousand from the five-decimal percentages.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AQs | 1.860 | 1.543 | 2.878 | 0.538 |
| JTo | 0.538 | 2.878 | 1.543 | 1.860 |
The last column is the smallest pot odds, written as a pot-to-call ratio, at which a call breaks even with this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
Across the five flop textures AQs' equity moves by 10.56 points, from 60.87% on monotone flops to 71.43% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower). AQs stays ahead on all five textures.
| Flop | Share of flops | AQs wins | Ties | JTo wins | AQs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.260 | 61.466 | 0.111 | 38.423 | 61.522 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.770 | 70.969 | 0.912 | 28.119 | 71.425 |
| Two-tone | 46.667 | 64.985 | 0.284 | 34.731 | 65.127 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 59.678 | 2.375 | 37.947 | 60.865 |
| Paired | 17.091 | 67.596 | 0.612 | 31.792 | 67.902 |
Rainbow flops have three suits, two-tone flops repeat one suit, monotone flops are all one suit, and paired flops repeat a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Each hand has a baseline against a random hand: 66.21% for AQs, 55.25% for JTo. Here the change is -1.18 and -20.28 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AQs, all flops | 65.030 | 66.209 | -1.179 | 0.98219 |
| AQs, rainbow, ten or higher | 61.522 | 66.209 | -4.687 | 0.92921 |
| AQs, rainbow, nine or lower | 71.425 | 66.209 | +5.216 | 1.07878 |
| AQs, two-tone | 65.127 | 66.209 | -1.082 | 0.98366 |
| AQs, monotone | 60.865 | 66.209 | -5.344 | 0.91929 |
| AQs, paired | 67.902 | 66.209 | +1.693 | 1.02557 |
| JTo, all flops | 34.970 | 55.248 | -20.278 | 0.63296 |
| JTo, rainbow, ten or higher | 38.478 | 55.248 | -16.770 | 0.69646 |
| JTo, rainbow, nine or lower | 28.575 | 55.248 | -26.673 | 0.51721 |
| JTo, two-tone | 34.873 | 55.248 | -20.375 | 0.63121 |
| JTo, monotone | 39.135 | 55.248 | -16.113 | 0.70835 |
| JTo, paired | 32.098 | 55.248 | -23.150 | 0.58098 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Does suit overlap move the numbers? AQs has 64.83% when the hands share a suit and 65.24% when they do not. AQs does better with no shared suit, by 0.41 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | AQs wins | Ties | JTo wins | AQs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 24 | 50.00 | 64.576 | 0.498 | 34.926 | 64.825 |
| No shared suit | 24 | 50.00 | 65.026 | 0.417 | 34.557 | 65.235 |
How often this matchup comes up
AQs against JTo is made up of 48 specific-card matchups in one seat order, 0.0030% of the 1,624,350 ordered deals, and 96 counting both seat orders, 0.0059%.
A worked example
Worked example: both players commit $100, so $200 sits in the middle. Over every board, AQs' average share is $130.06 (a gain of $30.06) and JTo's is $69.94 (a loss of $30.06).
Over a long run, 1,000 deals split into about 648 for AQs, 347 for JTo and 5 tied.
The same matchup from the other side
JTo against AQs adds nothing new: it is 34.97% for JTo and 65.03% for AQs, the same figures reversed.
Keep exploring
The calculator link fills in AsQs against JhTd, a deal where the two hands share no suit. Change any card to test your own hand. The neighboring matchups below swap one of the two hands for one of similar strength.
How this was computed
Nothing here is simulated. The 48 deals of AQs against JTo fall into a few suit patterns, each dealt against all 1,712,304 boards, with both best five-card hands compared on every board. Ties give each hand half a win, and the flop rows count a board under each of its ten flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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