AQs
70.58%
Wins 67.78%, ties 5.60%
A2s
29.42%
Wins 26.62%, ties 5.60%
AQs against A2s: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AQs | 67.782 | 5.602 | 26.616 | 70.583 |
| A2s | 26.616 | 5.602 | 67.782 | 29.417 |
Two suited hands meet here: AQs against A2s. Because the hands share one rank, the one with the higher kicker is ahead when that rank pairs and the other hand is mostly drawing.
That is a clear edge, 70.58% to 29.42%, but A2s still wins often enough that one hand proves nothing. Ties are part of the picture: 5.60% of boards end in a split pot, and each side counts that as half a win.
Place 10 of 169 belongs to AQs and place 46 belongs to A2s in the ranking against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| AQs | 13,928,000 | 1,151,000 | 5,469,000 |
| A2s | 5,469,000 | 1,151,000 | 13,928,000 |
Exact total: 12 deals times 1,712,304 boards. The other three counts come from the five-decimal percentages and are rounded to the nearest thousand, so read them as approximate.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AQs | 2.399 | 1.475 | 3.757 | 0.417 |
| A2s | 0.417 | 3.757 | 1.475 | 2.399 |
The final column gives the least the pot must offer for each unit called for a call to break even at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
By flop texture, AQs' equity runs from 58.03% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) up to 77.08% on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better. AQs stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.
| Flop | Share of flops | AQs wins | Ties | A2s wins | AQs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.867 | 75.311 | 3.538 | 21.151 | 77.080 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.042 | 55.806 | 4.454 | 39.740 | 58.033 |
| Two-tone | 46.543 | 68.177 | 3.418 | 28.405 | 69.886 |
| Monotone | 5.215 | 61.661 | 5.350 | 32.989 | 64.336 |
| Paired | 17.333 | 63.063 | 14.849 | 22.088 | 70.487 |
Read the flop types this way: rainbow has three suits, two-tone has two cards of one suit, monotone has three, and paired repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Against one random hand instead, AQs holds 66.21% and A2s holds 57.38%. Facing each other changes that by +4.37 points for AQs and -27.96 points for A2s.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AQs, all flops | 70.583 | 66.209 | +4.374 | 1.06606 |
| AQs, rainbow, ten or higher | 77.080 | 66.209 | +10.871 | 1.16419 |
| AQs, rainbow, nine or lower | 58.033 | 66.209 | -8.176 | 0.87651 |
| AQs, two-tone | 69.886 | 66.209 | +3.677 | 1.05554 |
| AQs, monotone | 64.336 | 66.209 | -1.873 | 0.97171 |
| AQs, paired | 70.487 | 66.209 | +4.278 | 1.06461 |
| A2s, all flops | 29.417 | 57.379 | -27.962 | 0.51268 |
| A2s, rainbow, ten or higher | 22.920 | 57.379 | -34.459 | 0.39945 |
| A2s, rainbow, nine or lower | 41.967 | 57.379 | -15.412 | 0.73140 |
| A2s, two-tone | 30.114 | 57.379 | -27.265 | 0.52483 |
| A2s, monotone | 35.664 | 57.379 | -21.715 | 0.62155 |
| A2s, paired | 29.513 | 57.379 | -27.866 | 0.51435 |
Does a shared suit matter?
For this pair the shared-suit row is empty: the two hands cannot both own a card of one suit without reusing a card.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | AQs wins | Ties | A2s wins | AQs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 0 | 0.00 | not possible | not possible | not possible | not possible |
| No shared suit | 12 | 100.00 | 67.782 | 5.602 | 26.616 | 70.583 |
How often this matchup comes up
Counting specific cards, AQs against A2s appears in 12 of the 1,624,350 ordered heads-up deals (0.0007%), and in 24 when the seats are swapped too (0.0015%).
A worked example
Say each player puts $100 in before the flop, making a $200 pot. On average AQs takes back $141.16 of it, which is $41.16 more than it put in, and A2s takes back $58.84, $41.16 less than it put in.
Scaled to 1,000 deals, that is roughly 678 wins for AQs, 266 for A2s and 56 chopped pots.
The same matchup from the other side
If you came looking for A2s against AQs, the numbers are the same with the hands swapped: 29.42% and 70.58%.
Keep exploring
The calculator link fills in AsQs against Ah2h, a deal where the two hands share no suit. Change any card to test your own hand. The neighboring matchups below swap one of the two hands for one of similar strength.
How this was computed
Nothing here is simulated. The 12 deals of AQs against A2s fall into a few suit patterns, each dealt against all 1,712,304 boards, with both best five-card hands compared on every board. Ties give each hand half a win, and the flop rows count a board under each of its ten flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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