AQs
73.70%
Wins 72.98%, ties 1.44%
QTo
26.30%
Wins 25.58%, ties 1.44%
AQs against QTo: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AQs | 72.981 | 1.436 | 25.583 | 73.699 |
| QTo | 25.583 | 1.436 | 72.981 | 26.301 |
The matchup pits a suited hand against an offsuit hand. Sharing a rank is the signature of a dominated hand, since the weaker hand is usually out-kicked when the shared rank shows up.
That is a clear edge, 73.70% to 26.30%, but QTo still wins often enough that one hand proves nothing. Ties are 1.44% of the outcomes here; each tied board gives both hands half the pot.
Ranked by equity against a random hand, AQs is number 10 of the 169 starting hands and QTo is number 47.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| AQs | 44,988,000 | 885,000 | 15,770,000 |
| QTo | 15,770,000 | 885,000 | 44,988,000 |
36 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards gives the exact total. The won, tied and lost counts are approximations from the five-decimal percentages, rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AQs | 2.802 | 1.370 | 3.909 | 0.357 |
| QTo | 0.357 | 3.909 | 1.370 | 2.802 |
The last column is the break-even price: the pot odds a call needs to offer, as a ratio of pot to call.
Who is ahead on which flops
By flop texture, AQs' equity runs from 66.16% on monotone flops up to 83.53% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower). AQs stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.
| Flop | Share of flops | AQs wins | Ties | QTo wins | AQs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.177 | 68.946 | 1.287 | 29.767 | 69.590 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.771 | 82.975 | 1.119 | 15.906 | 83.534 |
| Two-tone | 46.527 | 72.823 | 1.152 | 26.025 | 73.399 |
| Monotone | 5.192 | 64.757 | 2.802 | 32.441 | 66.158 |
| Paired | 17.333 | 76.785 | 2.130 | 21.085 | 77.850 |
A rainbow flop shows three suits, a two-tone flop repeats one suit, a monotone flop is a single suit, and a paired flop repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Start from the random-hand figures, 66.21% for AQs and 57.29% for QTo. This opponent changes them by +7.49 and -30.99 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AQs, all flops | 73.699 | 66.209 | +7.490 | 1.11313 |
| AQs, rainbow, ten or higher | 69.590 | 66.209 | +3.381 | 1.05107 |
| AQs, rainbow, nine or lower | 83.534 | 66.209 | +17.325 | 1.26167 |
| AQs, two-tone | 73.399 | 66.209 | +7.190 | 1.10860 |
| AQs, monotone | 66.158 | 66.209 | -0.051 | 0.99923 |
| AQs, paired | 77.850 | 66.209 | +11.641 | 1.17582 |
| QTo, all flops | 26.301 | 57.291 | -30.990 | 0.45908 |
| QTo, rainbow, ten or higher | 30.410 | 57.291 | -26.881 | 0.53080 |
| QTo, rainbow, nine or lower | 16.466 | 57.291 | -40.825 | 0.28741 |
| QTo, two-tone | 26.601 | 57.291 | -30.690 | 0.46431 |
| QTo, monotone | 33.842 | 57.291 | -23.449 | 0.59070 |
| QTo, paired | 22.150 | 57.291 | -35.141 | 0.38662 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Two kinds of deal exist here. In 12 of them the hands share a suit and AQs holds 73.45%. In 24 they do not, and it holds 73.83%. AQs does better with no shared suit, by 0.38 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | AQs wins | Ties | QTo wins | AQs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 33.33 | 72.689 | 1.519 | 25.792 | 73.449 |
| No shared suit | 24 | 66.67 | 73.127 | 1.395 | 25.478 | 73.825 |
How often this matchup comes up
Out of 1,624,350 ways to deal two seats two cards each, 36 are AQs in one seat and QTo in the other (0.0022%); with the seats swapped too, 72 (0.0044%).
A worked example
Try it with money: two players each put in $100 and the whole board runs out every possible way. AQs averages $147.40 from the $200, up $47.40; QTo averages $52.60, down $47.40.
Think in thousands: about 730 of 1,000 go to AQs, about 256 go to QTo, and about 14 are chopped.
The same matchup from the other side
QTo against AQs adds nothing new: it is 26.30% for QTo and 73.70% for AQs, the same figures reversed.
Keep exploring
Try AsQs against QhTd in the calculator: the hands share no suit, and every card can be changed. The links after it are the closest matchups in the ranking.
How this was computed
The figures are counted, not estimated: 1,712,304 boards for every suit pattern of the 36 specific deals, with both seven-card hands compared each time. Equity gives half a win for a tie. For the flop rows, a board is counted once under each of the ten flops inside it.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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