AQs vs QTo: preflop equity

The exact count puts AQs at 73.70% and QTo at 26.30% when the two hands see all five board cards.

AQs

73.70%

Wins 72.98%, ties 1.44%

QTo

26.30%

Wins 25.58%, ties 1.44%

Equity counts a tie as half a win. Exact over every board.

AQs against QTo: the numbers

Exact preflop results for AQs against QTo, in percent
HandWinsTiesLosesEquity
AQs72.9811.43625.58373.699
QTo25.5831.43672.98126.301

The matchup pits a suited hand against an offsuit hand. Sharing a rank is the signature of a dominated hand, since the weaker hand is usually out-kicked when the shared rank shows up.

That is a clear edge, 73.70% to 26.30%, but QTo still wins often enough that one hand proves nothing. Ties are 1.44% of the outcomes here; each tied board gives both hands half the pot.

Ranked by equity against a random hand, AQs is number 10 of the 169 starting hands and QTo is number 47.

Boards behind the percentages: 61,642,944 counted in all
HandBoards won, aboutBoards tied, aboutBoards lost, about
AQs44,988,000885,00015,770,000
QTo15,770,000885,00044,988,000

36 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards gives the exact total. The won, tied and lost counts are approximations from the five-decimal percentages, rounded to the nearest thousand.

AQs against QTo read as odds
HandEquity as odds (to 1)Wins one deal inLoses one deal inPot odds needed to call (to 1)
AQs2.8021.3703.9090.357
QTo0.3573.9091.3702.802

The last column is the break-even price: the pot odds a call needs to offer, as a ratio of pot to call.

Who is ahead on which flops

By flop texture, AQs' equity runs from 66.16% on monotone flops up to 83.53% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower). AQs stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.

AQs against QTo by flop texture, in percent
FlopShare of flopsAQs winsTiesQTo winsAQs equity
Rainbow, ten or higher23.17768.9461.28729.76769.590
Rainbow, nine or lower7.77182.9751.11915.90683.534
Two-tone46.52772.8231.15226.02573.399
Monotone5.19264.7572.80232.44166.158
Paired17.33376.7852.13021.08577.850

A rainbow flop shows three suits, a two-tone flop repeats one suit, a monotone flop is a single suit, and a paired flop repeats a rank.

Compared with a random hand

Start from the random-hand figures, 66.21% for AQs and 57.29% for QTo. This opponent changes them by +7.49 and -30.99 points.

AQs and QTo here compared with each against a random hand, in percent
CaseEquity hereAgainst a random handChange in pointsTimes the random-hand equity
AQs, all flops73.69966.209+7.4901.11313
AQs, rainbow, ten or higher69.59066.209+3.3811.05107
AQs, rainbow, nine or lower83.53466.209+17.3251.26167
AQs, two-tone73.39966.209+7.1901.10860
AQs, monotone66.15866.209-0.0510.99923
AQs, paired77.85066.209+11.6411.17582
QTo, all flops26.30157.291-30.9900.45908
QTo, rainbow, ten or higher30.41057.291-26.8810.53080
QTo, rainbow, nine or lower16.46657.291-40.8250.28741
QTo, two-tone26.60157.291-30.6900.46431
QTo, monotone33.84257.291-23.4490.59070
QTo, paired22.15057.291-35.1410.38662

Does a shared suit matter?

Two kinds of deal exist here. In 12 of them the hands share a suit and AQs holds 73.45%. In 24 they do not, and it holds 73.83%. AQs does better with no shared suit, by 0.38 points.

AQs against QTo by suit overlap, in percent
DealsSpecific dealsShare of dealsAQs winsTiesQTo winsAQs equity
Share a suit1233.3372.6891.51925.79273.449
No shared suit2466.6773.1271.39525.47873.825

How often this matchup comes up

Out of 1,624,350 ways to deal two seats two cards each, 36 are AQs in one seat and QTo in the other (0.0022%); with the seats swapped too, 72 (0.0044%).

A worked example

Try it with money: two players each put in $100 and the whole board runs out every possible way. AQs averages $147.40 from the $200, up $47.40; QTo averages $52.60, down $47.40.

Think in thousands: about 730 of 1,000 go to AQs, about 256 go to QTo, and about 14 are chopped.

The same matchup from the other side

QTo against AQs adds nothing new: it is 26.30% for QTo and 73.70% for AQs, the same figures reversed.

Try AsQs against QhTd in the calculator: the hands share no suit, and every card can be changed. The links after it are the closest matchups in the ranking.

How this was computed

The figures are counted, not estimated: 1,712,304 boards for every suit pattern of the 36 specific deals, with both seven-card hands compared each time. Equity gives half a win for a tie. For the flop rows, a board is counted once under each of the ten flops inside it.

Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.

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