AQs
64.34%
Wins 64.11%, ties 0.47%
KTo
35.66%
Wins 35.42%, ties 0.47%
AQs against KTo: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AQs | 64.108 | 0.472 | 35.420 | 64.344 |
| KTo | 35.420 | 0.472 | 64.108 | 35.656 |
The first hand is a suited hand; the second is an offsuit hand. With no overlap in ranks, every card that pairs one hand is a card that does not pair the other.
A 28.68 point lead is real, and KTo still takes about 354 of every 1,000 deals outright. The tie share is 0.47%: on those boards the pot is chopped and neither hand wins outright.
In the ranking of all 169 starting hands, AQs is number 10 and KTo is number 33.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| AQs | 52,691,000 | 388,000 | 29,112,000 |
| KTo | 29,112,000 | 388,000 | 52,691,000 |
Exact total: 48 deals times 1,712,304 boards. The other three counts come from the five-decimal percentages and are rounded to the nearest thousand, so read them as approximate.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AQs | 1.805 | 1.560 | 2.823 | 0.554 |
| KTo | 0.554 | 2.823 | 1.560 | 1.805 |
The final column gives the least the pot must offer for each unit called for a call to break even at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
By flop texture, AQs' equity runs from 58.98% on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better up to 75.73% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower). AQs stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.
| Flop | Share of flops | AQs wins | Ties | KTo wins | AQs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.260 | 58.928 | 0.113 | 40.959 | 58.984 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.770 | 75.235 | 0.994 | 23.771 | 75.732 |
| Two-tone | 46.667 | 64.178 | 0.302 | 35.520 | 64.329 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 58.923 | 2.386 | 38.691 | 60.116 |
| Paired | 17.091 | 67.487 | 0.604 | 31.909 | 67.789 |
Flop types: rainbow means three different suits, two-tone means one suit twice, monotone means one suit three times, paired means a repeated rank.
Compared with a random hand
Start from the random-hand figures, 66.21% for AQs and 59.74% for KTo. This opponent changes them by -1.87 and -24.08 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AQs, all flops | 64.344 | 66.209 | -1.865 | 0.97183 |
| AQs, rainbow, ten or higher | 58.984 | 66.209 | -7.225 | 0.89088 |
| AQs, rainbow, nine or lower | 75.732 | 66.209 | +9.523 | 1.14383 |
| AQs, two-tone | 64.329 | 66.209 | -1.880 | 0.97161 |
| AQs, monotone | 60.116 | 66.209 | -6.093 | 0.90797 |
| AQs, paired | 67.789 | 66.209 | +1.580 | 1.02386 |
| KTo, all flops | 35.656 | 59.739 | -24.083 | 0.59686 |
| KTo, rainbow, ten or higher | 41.016 | 59.739 | -18.723 | 0.68659 |
| KTo, rainbow, nine or lower | 24.268 | 59.739 | -35.471 | 0.40623 |
| KTo, two-tone | 35.671 | 59.739 | -24.068 | 0.59711 |
| KTo, monotone | 39.884 | 59.739 | -19.855 | 0.66764 |
| KTo, paired | 32.211 | 59.739 | -27.528 | 0.53920 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Looking only at deals where the hands share a suit, AQs has 64.10%; looking only at deals where they do not, 64.59%. AQs does better with no shared suit, by 0.49 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | AQs wins | Ties | KTo wins | AQs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 24 | 50.00 | 63.846 | 0.512 | 35.642 | 64.102 |
| No shared suit | 24 | 50.00 | 64.370 | 0.431 | 35.199 | 64.585 |
How often this matchup comes up
How often does it happen? 48 of the 1,624,350 ordered deals (0.0030%) are AQs against KTo, and 96 (0.0059%) if either hand may sit in either seat.
A worked example
Worked example: both players commit $100, so $200 sits in the middle. Over every board, AQs' average share is $128.68 (a gain of $28.68) and KTo's is $71.32 (a loss of $28.68).
A thousand deals look like this: AQs takes 641, KTo takes 354, 5 are ties.
The same matchup from the other side
The mirror image, KTo against AQs, is 35.66% to 64.34%, and its address redirects to this page.
Keep exploring
AsQs against KhTd is a ready-made deal for the calculator, with no suit in common between the hands. The neighboring matchups below replace one hand with another of similar strength.
How this was computed
We counted every case. Each suit pattern of the 48 specific AQs against KTo deals meets all 1,712,304 boards, and the better five-card hand wins; a split pot is half a win each. The flop table reads each board under all ten of its three-card flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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